Helpful ReplySo what is OFF TOPIC allowed?

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Porktown
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/05 09:26:03 (permalink)
JerryS
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JerryS
Where have you been for the last 13 years where one of the longest bull markets occurred (600+ percent gains)?  So far we haven't even lost the gains of 2021.  If you have many years before retirement you should welcome this pullback versus the unsustainable nosebleed levels at the start of this year.

I understand your aversion to the gov't throwing money at problems, but do you realize gov't (and Federal Reserve) intervention was one of the main drivers of the 13 year bull market?


Try, more like 250%. Not every company is Tesla. Much of that growth is in a few companies too. So if you were fortunate to grab the right ones, great. I have a few mutual funds that are about 8-9 years long. After this correction, I am up 30% in each. My 401k is not even close to being up 600% in the past 13 years. And imagine 99% are similar to mine.

Agree that it is healthy for the market to correct itself.

What I am saying is, not many average people have $200k or whatever sitting around in cash. It is likely invested if you have that amount. The ultra wealthy on the other hand do keep large sums like that in cash, for instances like this. Maybe some have $10-$20k set aside to try to time the market, turning that into $50k is great, but not making you wealthy.



Has nothing to do with grabbing the right stocks.  If you had $100 in an S&P 500 fund on 1/1/09, it was worth $682 on 1/1/22 (582%).  Today it is worth $560, still up 460%.  My over 600% gains was based on the low in March 2009.  It is hard to be upset with returns like this.  Think long term.
 
Trying to pick the right stocks, or timing the market is a losing game for the vast majority of retail investors.  Unfortunately, I speak from experience .

You are describing timing the market to a T. This was right after the Great Recession when the market tanked and a good bit of middle class was taking pay cuts, if they even had a job. Finding an amount to invest, that wasn’t already invested, maybe the few outside of the top 1% had available.

The S&P went from over 1500 to close to 800. If you, what is the term, TIMED it right, maybe you get that 582% again assuming you pulled at the right time.

It is never safe to assume anything in the market, but yearly average has been close to 10% for a while. Sometimes up 30% and others down 20%. Figure that 10% number compounding by the years invested and most likely what many 401k accounts reflect. Probably less since most are diversified with other less return, safer investments.
Porktown
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/05 09:35:34 (permalink)
BTW, I’m with you on the losing effort of timing for us normal folks. The market itself is rigged by the hedge funds. They time the fluctuations that they create. Since those are the funds of the top 1%, they “hire” the politicians that will write the laws to have this Highway robbery scheme be legal. Same funds keep a ton in cash that they can buy up in times like now, while the rest of us are riding out the current correction. It isn’t fear that is having me sell longer positions to buy into new ones. It is being down on many and not wanting to be taxed on the ones that are up, to throw it back into the market. Unless that fear is fear of paying taxes and realizing losses?
JM2
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/05 10:23:47 (permalink)
If you don't understand how the markets work, or investing in general. Don't blame "the system" for you failures, blame yourself.
post edited by JM2 - 2022/09/05 10:27:46
Irisheyeball
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/05 11:25:26 (permalink)
Not a market timer by any stretch....that's a losing proposition without the right computerized algorithms and the desire to live a short and stressful life.  I buy.  That, with the one exceptional period when both kids were in college, is basically all I do.  Twice a month for the past 40 years, including into a money fund that, yes, may sometimes be raided to buy "extra" equities when they're determined (by me) to be on sale.  It's called dollar cost averaging.  Very infrequently, I will rebalance accounts when valuations are determined (again by me) to be high.  That occurred last winter.  Won't bore you with the particulars.
 
Nobody should believe they're shut out of our market system.  What may be lacking is proper training and discipline...said the old coot.
MyWar
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/05 14:20:30 (permalink)
EMitch
MyWar, it may be that I just assumed since abortion was such a hot button issue that it would almost require or guarantee a ballot referendum. When the court sent it to the states, the vitriol by the pro abortionists, (namely the Democrats, the Feminists, and many Republicans) was so animated over a "right" that was created wrongly by the Supreme Court 50 years prior, it was as if they were a hundred feet under water and the Court was standing on their air hose, looking up and flailing their arms as if their life would be over without being able to kill their unwanted or ill conceived babies. That was not the decision, and they were up in arms over something that they totally misinterpreted, mainly because Democrats such as Schumer and the MSM kept firing them up and edging them on. (Remember Schumer)? "We're coming for you Kavanaugh, we're coming for you Gorsuch". And one crazy even came for Justice Kavanaugh. The issue simply should be a referendum on the ballot, where every voter gets to voice their opinion.
We've had referendums for other choices on the ballot, I believe in the last election. There was a referendum about judges.


Well I don’t really know what to say in response to all of that, other than it would seem that the governors race this fall will likely be a de facto referendum on abortion access in PA. And I don’t think mastriano’s extremist views are going to sit well with a majority of PA voters.

I’m not even sure why one would expect republican lawmakers in PA to offer such a choice on a referendum as they have made their position abundantly clear.
EMitch
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/05 22:22:09 (permalink)
MyWar
I’m not even sure why one would expect republican lawmakers in PA to offer such a choice on a referendum as they have made their position abundantly clear.



You're confirming my original point, MyWar. It is a republican majority in the state legislature, but why are they not being bombarded with letters from all over the districts? It should be in the news but all ya hear is crickets. I'd think that the pro-abortion side would be makin' a lot of noise. Maybe it don't matter near as much as they let on.

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DeadGator401
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/05 23:07:58 (permalink)
EMitch
MyWar
I’m not even sure why one would expect republican lawmakers in PA to offer such a choice on a referendum as they have made their position abundantly clear.



You're confirming my original point, MyWar. It is a republican majority in the state legislature, but why are they not being bombarded with letters from all over the districts? It should be in the news but all ya hear is crickets. I'd think that the pro-abortion side would be makin' a lot of noise. Maybe it don't matter near as much as they let on.


You'd expect GOP PA House members to say "Boy we're getting all kinds of mail from our constituents expressing their displeasure with the Roe V Wade Decisions and our own stances on it"?

I don't think I've ever really seen any Politician broadcast the remarks and communications their office gets, unless it's death threats for them and their families. 

Genuine question - is this something that was common in the past? I am pretty sure you're older than me, I'm in my 30's so. 
Porktown
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/06 07:05:46 (permalink)
Irisheyeball
Not a market timer by any stretch....that's a losing proposition without the right computerized algorithms and the desire to live a short and stressful life.  I buy.  That, with the one exceptional period when both kids were in college, is basically all I do.  Twice a month for the past 40 years, including into a money fund that, yes, may sometimes be raided to buy "extra" equities when they're determined (by me) to be on sale.  It's called dollar cost averaging.  Very infrequently, I will rebalance accounts when valuations are determined (again by me) to be high.  That occurred last winter.  Won't bore you with the particulars.
 
Nobody should believe they're shut out of our market system.  What may be lacking is proper training and discipline...said the old coot.

I do similar, the vast majority of my buying are managed mutual funds that all are rated higher than S&P average, but obviously the past can’t predict the future. I do have some set aside for individual stokes, but seem to do about the same as the funds overall and a lot more work researching. With those I follow the Peter Lynch valuation. Except for the more speculative stuff that I only allow a pretty small amount of my overall portfolio. Some either explode one way or the other. With those, I use a similar formula as well as research a ton of their reports. I can only do those if I am really believing their company has something innovative that will catch on. With those, always such a gamble, no matter how good it looks. Either cyclical or as noted with hedge funds manipulating their prices. As long as their technicals are good, it doesn’t matter. They are doing for short term gains while others panic. Long term on those will be fine with most. Just have to expect those to be a roller coaster. I dollar cost average to start positions in just about any individual stock, then pretty much leave and monitor. If they go beyond their PEG value, then sell. Or if they plummet for some legit reason and need to cut losses then do as well.
crappiefisher
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/06 10:27:35 (permalink)
 On just two items made $16,000 profit quick. This coming from someone that can't spell Wednesday and didn't go to collage. Learned not to gamble and take a sure thing at the age of 18 and not be greedy doing so.
 
crappy
 
 Real-estate would have been easy pickings but don't want the greed.  
post edited by crappiefisher - 2022/09/06 10:33:09
EMitch
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/06 10:55:33 (permalink)
DeadGator401
 
You'd expect GOP PA House members to say "Boy we're getting all kinds of mail from our constituents expressing their displeasure with the Roe V Wade Decisions and our own stances on it"?

I don't think I've ever really seen any Politician broadcast the remarks and communications their office gets, unless it's death threats for them and their families. 

Genuine question - is this something that was common in the past? I am pretty sure you're older than me, I'm in my 30's so. 



Gator, though the GOP holds the majority in the state legislature, we're not hearing anything about a referendum on abortion to go on the ballot. Recent polling shows Roe second in line behind inflation and the economy in voter consideration. But even the 'Crats haven't brought anything up about, or if they did, it didn't make the news. If it's so important that they demonstrated for months about it, my question is: Where are they now? Is every single Republican in the Legislature pro life to the point where they wouldn't even consider the 15 week limit, or rap , incest or the health of the mother? Again, it's my point that once elected, representatives take their own path many times, even when it's against the majority of their constituents.
 
Legislators letting constituents know what's going on is somewhat rare, but it does happen, but it's only on the party lists. A registered Democrat is not gonna get a news letter from a district rep, but with the invention of the internet, anybody should be able to find out what is goin' on. We still sometimes get a news letter, and more often an e-mail. IE, Senator Toomey on the Fed side sends them regularly 

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EMitch
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/06 10:55:33 (permalink)
DeadGator401
 
You'd expect GOP PA House members to say "Boy we're getting all kinds of mail from our constituents expressing their displeasure with the Roe V Wade Decisions and our own stances on it"?

I don't think I've ever really seen any Politician broadcast the remarks and communications their office gets, unless it's death threats for them and their families. 

Genuine question - is this something that was common in the past? I am pretty sure you're older than me, I'm in my 30's so. 



Gator, though the GOP holds the majority in the state legislature, we're not hearing anything about a referendum on abortion to go on the ballot. Recent polling shows Roe second in line behind inflation and the economy in voter consideration. But even the 'Crats haven't brought anything up about, or if they did, it didn't make the news. If it's so important that they demonstrated for months about it, my question is: Where are they now? Is every single Republican in the Legislature pro life to the point where they wouldn't even consider the 15 week limit, or rap , incest or the health of the mother? Again, it's my point that once elected, representatives take their own path many times, even when it's against the majority of their constituents.
 
Legislators letting constituents know what's going on is somewhat rare, but it does happen, but it's only on the party lists. A registered Democrat is not gonna get a news letter from a republican district rep, but with the invention of the internet, anybody should be able to find out what is goin' on. We still sometimes get a news letter, and more often an e-mail. IE, Senator Toomey and Representative Mike Kelly on the Fed side send them out. Very rare on the State side.
post edited by EMitch - 2022/09/06 10:58:18

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crappiefisher
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/06 11:40:40 (permalink)
Thinking about buying a cabin in the wood with a lake but the old lady said "No". Anyone on here have a mail order bride? If so how is it working out?
 
crappiefisher
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/06 14:24:12 (permalink)
Got 5 of these on the trailer and truck now. Needed for a butcher shop at camp. https://www.imperialsupplies.com/item/9277323   
 
  Any butchers on here? Gonna catch crawlers tonight and add to the farm in basement. Lots of big fish where caught in western Pa. yesterday with the weather pattern. Sure today was no different for a good % of the ones that got out.
pensfan1
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/06 16:10:07 (permalink)
Boy if I had the space, I'd be interested. No one really cuts on wood anymore. It's all the white plastic table tops now. Much easier to clean. I remember the old block at the store we owned. We would clean it with salt and wire brush. Can't imagine that's even close to acceptable nowadays.
crappiefisher
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/06 17:18:43 (permalink)
 Yeah they have been banned for a long time now in shops and restaurants. Don't think you can even legally use wood handles on knives and utensils when the tops were banned. Use to get a good workout with the wire brush and mix a 1 to 10  bleach/water solution to kill bacteria.
 
 I'm going to use these at camp. The ones I have in truck and trailer are same company in photo but a higher industrial grade with steel sheet layered/wrapped over a wood filler. Couldn't find a photo with the steel top. Have too many Hobart grinders, choppers, mixer/grinder and way too many slicers and figured these should work for now until I decide to reduce inventory. Do have two large thick white poly cutting boards I use when doing a hog, deer or beef.
 
  A farm close to camp raises Black Angus and pass it on way to and from camp. They look tasty, They raised Buffalo up to a few years ago but switched to BA. The Buffalo were hard to coral when got loose with dogs and atv (wild instinct)
 
 Have a large coil of stainless (can't lift myself) That will make nice sanitary tops for them if I go that route. Have to get the brake out to bend that stuff for a professional finish.
 
post edited by crappiefisher - 2022/09/06 17:50:42
pensfan1
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/06 19:48:58 (permalink)
Are you talking about The Forbes farm? Right by Laurel School.
snagr
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/06 19:53:31 (permalink)
eyesandgillz
Lol...you can't even make this stuff up:
 
https://www.wfla.com/news...ncing-gas-car-ban/amp/


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DeadGator401
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/06 20:31:08 (permalink)
EMitch
DeadGator401
 
You'd expect GOP PA House members to say "Boy we're getting all kinds of mail from our constituents expressing their displeasure with the Roe V Wade Decisions and our own stances on it"?

I don't think I've ever really seen any Politician broadcast the remarks and communications their office gets, unless it's death threats for them and their families. 

Genuine question - is this something that was common in the past? I am pretty sure you're older than me, I'm in my 30's so. 



Gator, though the GOP holds the majority in the state legislature, we're not hearing anything about a referendum on abortion to go on the ballot. Recent polling shows Roe second in line behind inflation and the economy in voter consideration. But even the 'Crats haven't brought anything up about, or if they did, it didn't make the news. If it's so important that they demonstrated for months about it, my question is: Where are they now? Is every single Republican in the Legislature pro life to the point where they wouldn't even consider the 15 week limit, or rap , incest or the health of the mother? Again, it's my point that once elected, representatives take their own path many times, even when it's against the majority of their constituents.
 
Legislators letting constituents know what's going on is somewhat rare, but it does happen, but it's only on the party lists. A registered Democrat is not gonna get a news letter from a republican district rep, but with the invention of the internet, anybody should be able to find out what is goin' on. We still sometimes get a news letter, and more often an e-mail. IE, Senator Toomey and Representative Mike Kelly on the Fed side send them out. Very rare on the State side.



I understand what you're saying, however I think you might be looking at it in a different way than most. The Governor Election itself is flat out a referendum on abortion.
Mastriano has said no exceptions on Abortions. He pushes a 6 week limit, as well as criminal charges for Doctors who perform them. 
He's been silent on the subject since the Primaries, but we can only go by a mans word so.

For the races of Gov and Senate - it's been nonstop from the Democratic candidates. 

You can check their Twitters. Every single day they mention how reproductive rights are on the ballot. 
https://twitter.com/JoshShapiroPA
https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman

 
Mastriano and Oz haven't said much on the subject. 
https://twitter.com/DrOz
https://twitter.com/SenMastriano
 
I agree with you on the politicians taking their own paths. It's why we need term limits my friend.
 
EMitch
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/06 22:15:34 (permalink)
Gator, by saying that abortion is on the ballot by the candidates that espouse it, you're echoing Biden's vote, vote, vote. I'm saying if the referendum was actually put on the ballot, then the state legislature, regardless of new incoming or incumbent candidates, would easily see the temperature of the electorate. I don't know how to make that any clearer.
BTW, I don't do Facebook, I don't do Twitter, I don't do TikTok, I don't do any social media whatsoever. There's more than enough BS available elsewhere. This forum is the most social media I get.

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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/06 23:15:42 (permalink)
pensfan1
Are you talking about The Forbes farm? Right by Laurel School.



 
 Wheeler farm on Maples Rd.
 
 snager, maybe they should have solar and heat powered cars. Think it hit 117* over there today. Check this yacht out...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyyDw9KuWWs
crappiefisher
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/07 00:15:08 (permalink)
 Nice sunsets and sunrises from front porch and back patio at camp outside of Linesville

 
MyWar
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/07 00:36:57 (permalink)
EMitch
Gator, by saying that abortion is on the ballot by the candidates that espouse it, you're echoing Biden's vote, vote, vote. I'm saying if the referendum was actually put on the ballot, then the state legislature, regardless of new incoming or incumbent candidates, would easily see the temperature of the electorate. I don't know how to make that any clearer.


I’m not sure where the disconnect is. Republican lawmakers like mastriano have made their position clear - they don’t care what the temperature of the electorate is.

Look, if there is a referendum in PA, and the results support the pro choice side, then hard right lawmakers either have to back off on the issue, or just ignore the results of the referendum and ban it without exception anyway. Neither of these options are good for them.

If they back off, it will disappoint their base and they risk getting primaried by the next guy who will take a more extreme position, because republicans have figured out the way to win primaries is to stake out the most extreme positions possible.

On the other hand if they just ignore the referendum and place bans without exception it will p1ss off everybody else and they risk losing general elections.

But the bottom line is that Republican lawmakers don’t want referendums because they know their positions are not popular. This is particularly true with abortion.

You already said it though, isn’t the republican position “we don’t live in a democracy”? Isn’t the republican position to make it hard as possible to vote and discourage participation in the democratic process?

I guess I’m trying to understand why you seem to favor a referendum vote here… because I do actually agree with you and I would love to see it on the ballot in all 50 states. But *more* direct democracy seems to be wholly inconsistent with the party you support. So at what point does that make reconsider your support of that party?
MyWar
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/07 00:49:20 (permalink)
It’s not just abortion too. Same sex marriage has broad public support but republicans don’t care. Put this up for referendum too.

https://www.texastribune....ruz-****-marriage-bill/
EMitch
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/07 09:10:05 (permalink)
If it was on the ballot as a referendum, and it came back after the election that about 70% favor choice, at least in some degree, then obviously the base (hard core either party) is not as big as they think it is. At any rate, it's only one issue for the coming election, both state and federal, and there's a host of other problems that need to be addressed.

Never try to argue with an idiot. They'll bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.
Porktown
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/07 15:07:12 (permalink)
EMitch
If it was on the ballot as a referendum, and it came back after the election that about 70% favor choice, at least in some degree, then obviously the base (hard core either party) is not as big as they think it is. At any rate, it's only one issue for the coming election, both state and federal, and there's a host of other problems that need to be addressed.


I would have to think that all people that think "no exceptions" are voting Republicans.  I doubt any with that frame of mind would register Dem.
 
The state is pretty even voter wise of 50% Rep and 50% Dem.
 
So, if 100% of Dems voted "at least some exceptions".
 
That would make 60% of Republicans be in the "no exceptions" vote.  That would then suggest the base is what we think it is and why such horrible candidates.
 
Same could be said of some horrible fiscal policies on the Dem's side.
EMitch
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/07 22:04:32 (permalink)
Porktown
EMitch
If it was on the ballot as a referendum, and it came back after the election that about 70% favor choice, at least in some degree, then obviously the base (hard core either party) is not as big as they think it is. At any rate, it's only one issue for the coming election, both state and federal, and there's a host of other problems that need to be addressed.


I would have to think that all people that think "no exceptions" are voting Republicans.  I doubt any with that frame of mind would register Dem.
 
The state is pretty even voter wise of 50% Rep and 50% Dem.
 
So, if 100% of Dems voted "at least some exceptions".
 
That would make 60% of Republicans be in the "no exceptions" vote.  That would then suggest the base is what we think it is and why such horrible candidates.
 
Same could be said of some horrible fiscal policies on the Dem's side.


There's no way that all republicans would yield a vote of "no, under any circumstances".
The same could be said of middle of the road democrats, (they're not all radicals, ya know), and let's not leave out the Christian right in either party. Hard core republicans on the right are anti, but you could have anti-s in the democrat Christian right. It's a toss up.

Never try to argue with an idiot. They'll bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.
DeadGator401
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/07 23:07:52 (permalink)
EMitch
Porktown
EMitch
If it was on the ballot as a referendum, and it came back after the election that about 70% favor choice, at least in some degree, then obviously the base (hard core either party) is not as big as they think it is. At any rate, it's only one issue for the coming election, both state and federal, and there's a host of other problems that need to be addressed.


I would have to think that all people that think "no exceptions" are voting Republicans.  I doubt any with that frame of mind would register Dem.
 
The state is pretty even voter wise of 50% Rep and 50% Dem.
 
So, if 100% of Dems voted "at least some exceptions".
 
That would make 60% of Republicans be in the "no exceptions" vote.  That would then suggest the base is what we think it is and why such horrible candidates.
 
Same could be said of some horrible fiscal policies on the Dem's side.


There's no way that all republicans would yield a vote of "no, under any circumstances".
The same could be said of middle of the road democrats, (they're not all radicals, ya know), and let's not leave out the Christian right in either party. Hard core republicans on the right are anti, but you could have anti-s in the democrat Christian right. It's a toss up.



That's the thing Mitch, Mastriano literally said that. I believe it's 6 weeks, zero exceptions. 
It's why he's been quiet since the primaries, because he knows he's in a pinch. 
Porktown
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/08 07:56:26 (permalink)
EMitch
There's no way that all republicans would yield a vote of "no, under any circumstances".

Maybe I worded this incorrectly. I am not saying all Republicans share this view at all. I am saying that anyone that shares this view is most likely not going to be a registered Democrat. If there are, maybe 1% or extremely low. It is a “pillar” of the Dem party that I am sure the vast majority that share the view of “no exceptions”, would not be part of that party. To simplify the estimation, I think most on here would agree that number is very minimal so calling it 0%. Kind of like calling $3.99 = $4 when estimating the cost of something. Your comment was a hypothetical estimation, my response was a estimated breakdown of the numbers, which I am sure neither are completely accurate, but I would think somewhat good guess.

In your hypothetical, 70% of the TOTAL vote is “supporting at least some exceptions”, that means 30% of the TOTAL is in the “no to all” group.

Since roughly half of the total vote is Dem. ~100% of this group = “at least some restrictions”, would equal ~50% of the total vote.

If half of the total vote is accounted for above, then this 30% would be coming from ~50% of the total vote which is equal to ~60% of this voting group.

You could say independent vote could take up part of this too, but I don’t think there are any accurate figures on independents and “no exception” support. There really isn’t 50/50 split either in total. 4.0M registered D and 3.4 registered R in PA, it really depends who shows up to the polls. So, this would likely have a slight adjustment as well.
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/08 07:58:58 (permalink)
I have never heard of a Christian-Right Democrat??? Do they hang out with the Pro-Socialist Conservatives?
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Re: So what is OFF TOPIC allowed? 2022/09/08 09:44:26 (permalink)
Porktown
I have never heard of a Christian-Right Democrat??? Do they hang out with the Pro-Socialist Conservatives?



Catholics?  Many I know vote Dem. but are against abortion and "other" things.  This always seemed strange to me.  I am a holiday Catholic, and even that has been waning.
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