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Silverbullet_11
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2018/09/11 22:41:15 (permalink)

Prediction

So I used to go up to Erie quite a bit in the early 2000’s. I moved and came back a few years ago. I was very disappointed in how the fishery has declined those years I was gone. My last trip was 3 years ago. More people, less legal water, and much less fish. So last year I started with NY. 10000 times better in my opinion, but I must admit I miss those Erie trips. I’m going to give it another whirl this fall—maybe. Now I recently read an article that the powers that be are forecasting a record year out of Lake Ontario with Salmon and Steelhead runs. Is there any such literature for Erie?? Also, has there been any forward movement with the access legality concerns on elk? I personally think it’s absolute BS for private landowners to pimp out their property to guides and select friends with angler paid resources.
post edited by Silverbullet_11 - 2018/09/11 22:42:52
#1
Erie_flyfishing
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/12 07:04:35 (permalink)
I agreee that Erie steelhead has an experience that can’t be matched. Yes I myself have grown up fishing Erie. Last years run was decent, but like you stated, less public water for all of us to enjoy. Privatizing water has and will forever be a variable in Erie. I’ve been fishing in Erie since 2010 and I have watched most of the water I fished disappear. Like I previously stated, last years run was probably the best I experienced. Now I cannot tell you how this years run will be... too many viriables.. smolt mortality, baitfish population, colder winter. Higher walleye population, etc. tight lines silverbullet
#2
psu_fish
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/12 14:34:13 (permalink)
Erie_flyfishing
I agreee that Erie steelhead has an experience that can’t be matched. Yes I myself have grown up fishing Erie. Last years run was decent, but like you stated, less public water for all of us to enjoy. Privatizing water has and will forever be a variable in Erie. I’ve been fishing in Erie since 2010 and I have watched most of the water I fished disappear. Like I previously stated, last years run was probably the best I experienced. Now I cannot tell you how this years run will be... too many viriables.. smolt mortality, baitfish population, colder winter. Higher walleye population, etc. tight lines silverbullet



Oh watch out!!! We got a millennial talking here.
#3
johnthefisherman
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/12 14:36:22 (permalink)
The feesh will get here when they get here. How's that?
 

Liquid Mayhem Pro Staff: www.liquidmayhem.ca

My Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/Pasc9/videos



#4
Erie_flyfishing
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/12 15:21:31 (permalink)
psu_fish
Erie_flyfishing
I agreee that Erie steelhead has an experience that can’t be matched. Yes I myself have grown up fishing Erie. Last years run was decent, but like you stated, less public water for all of us to enjoy. Privatizing water has and will forever be a variable in Erie. I’ve been fishing in Erie since 2010 and I have watched most of the water I fished disappear. Like I previously stated, last years run was probably the best I experienced. Now I cannot tell you how this years run will be... too many viriables.. smolt mortality, baitfish population, colder winter. Higher walleye population, etc. tight lines silverbullet



Oh watch out!!! We got a millennial talking here.


Don't worry I'm not a never trump millenial
#5
Porktown
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/12 15:56:30 (permalink)
Wasn't 2010 last year...  I swear my calendar lies.
#6
Erie_flyfishing
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/12 18:14:45 (permalink)
johnthefisherman
The feesh will get here when they get here. How's that?
 


They will arrive when they won’t be boiled alive haha
#7
Mountian Man
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/12 21:10:45 (permalink)
Erie_flyfishing
psu_fish
Erie_flyfishing
I agreee that Erie steelhead has an experience that can’t be matched. Yes I myself have grown up fishing Erie. Last years run was decent, but like you stated, less public water for all of us to enjoy. Privatizing water has and will forever be a variable in Erie. I’ve been fishing in Erie since 2010 and I have watched most of the water I fished disappear. Like I previously stated, last years run was probably the best I experienced. Now I cannot tell you how this years run will be... too many viriables.. smolt mortality, baitfish population, colder winter. Higher walleye population, etc. tight lines silverbullet



Oh watch out!!! We got a millennial talking here.


Don't worry I'm not a never trump millenial

Grab'em by da Gill plate

Thread Killer

Veni Vidi Vici...
#8
Kokanee Killer
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/12 22:41:05 (permalink)
bigger than the runs of the mid 90s... wishful thinkin  but any run is a good run

I have become comfortably numb
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lost sage rod sectio
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/12 23:52:16 (permalink)
This years run will be EPIC .!!!!!This will be Donald Trump make ERIE Great again year Steelhead Run. 
 I will compare it to the runs of 1995 THRU 1999. EPIC.!!!!!!!!!!!
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FiveMilePete
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/13 00:40:19 (permalink)
Erie_flyfishing
I agreee that Erie steelhead has an experience that can’t be matched. Yes I myself have grown up fishing Erie. Last years run was decent, but like you stated, less public water for all of us to enjoy. Privatizing water has and will forever be a variable in Erie. I’ve been fishing in Erie since 2010 and I have watched most of the water I fished disappear. Like I previously stated, last years run was probably the best I experienced. Now I cannot tell you how this years run will be... too many viriables.. smolt mortality, baitfish population, colder winter. Higher walleye population, etc. tight lines silverbullet


Wow, all the way back to 2010?  One of the old timers has returned to the forum.  Welcome back!


post edited by FiveMilePete - 2018/09/13 01:31:17
#11
Erie_flyfishing
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/13 07:14:31 (permalink)
Haha this was the laker I got fishing elk in 2010! Caught at the mud hole very late at night. This is the fish that got me hooked for life

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#12
CAPTAIN HOOK
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/13 10:07:30 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby FiveMilePete 2018/09/14 01:08:57
I don't know about NY being 10000 times better now, maybe back in the 80's and 90's when I fished it . Super crowds now there too on most creeks all season ! Maybe more fish overall but access does disappear there too with posted signs. No doubt Erie sucks now a days as compared to years ago, but for some it's still good fishing. Erie creeks being shallower and smaller does offer the rarity of sight fishing and that's always a nice challenge . I personally avoid the crowds and opt for the lesser traveled spots in several states .....not as many fish but after catching hundreds over the years a 4-5 fish day is good enough !  
#13
bassackwards
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/13 12:12:51 (permalink)
My prediction......fishing will be the same as last year if the weather is the same as last year. If the weather differs from last year, so will the fishing. 
 
Steelhead have gotten to be a pretty standard tradition for Erie.....pressure goes way up, fishing goes way down.
 
We are just now seeing them near the creek mouths when a cold front comes through.....pretty early yet to predict. Heck, we are still getting them trolling in 60-100 FOW. If they are moving, it isn't much. 
 
Myself, I hope it is bitterly cold (I mean brutal) and dry. I hope the cold comes early, and the snow comes late. 
#14
FiveMilePete
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/13 13:00:07 (permalink)
CAPTAIN HOOK
I don't know about NY being 10000 times better now, maybe back in the 80's and 90's when I fished it . Super crowds now there too on most creeks all season ! Maybe more fish overall but access does disappear there too with posted signs. No doubt Erie sucks now a days as compared to years ago, but for some it's still good fishing. Erie creeks being shallower and smaller does offer the rarity of sight fishing and that's always a nice challenge . I personally avoid the crowds and opt for the lesser traveled spots in several states .....not as many fish but after catching hundreds over the years a 4-5 fish day is good enough !  


Yep.  I moved back to Erie in 2003.  New guys to the fishing here don't believe me when I tell them how great the steelhead fishing was that year. And the guys here told me it was even better before then.  I had days where I caught more fish in one day, than I have in several of the past years.  And on the little creeks.  Four mile, Seven mile, Twelve Mile, and Sixteen, when the others froze.  I never went to the west side.  Last year was so bad that I hardly even fished the east side.  After that first couple of years, there were never the huge runs on the east side.  I don't know if that is because of less steelhead, or the drastic changes in the creeks.  The most affected was Twelve Mile Creek.  There were days when you would see fifty guys fishing there. near the mouth, all catching fish. I haven't fished there in three or four years. On Four Mile, there would be fishermen every 10 yards or so, from the dam all the way to the lake.  Now, you can't even fish by the dam, and there are only fish in the slow moving hole at the mouth. 

I don't think those type of days will ever return.   But at least we have the memories.  I sure wish I would have taken some pics though.  There were days that the mouth of Seven Mile looked like Trout Run.  The hole upstream had hundreds of fish all season long.  Now, if you see a dozen fish, it's a monster run. :-)

   
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Erie_flyfishing
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/13 13:30:26 (permalink)
Here’s a catch from last year

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rsquared
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/13 13:50:58 (permalink)
I predict that the first good run must be close if FiveMilePete is posting!  
 
When genie chimes in, it's a good bet the fish'll be up to Rt. 5
 
 
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CAPTAIN HOOK
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/13 19:06:12 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby FiveMilePete 2018/09/14 00:37:07
5 Mile ........2003 was no doubt an awesome year for big numbers of fish I'd say maybe the best year ever. Double figures every trip and the crowds were just starting to thicken.
Never fished the smaller creeks ever.... strictly Elk Creek only. The late 90's on to 2003 were fantastic runs all over the Erie tribs and shores. Then the internet exploded on after 03 and put the death blow on the creeks. Other than last year being a little better you have not missed much the past 6-7 years. I have taken cameras with me for over 30 years on most trips so fortunately I have tons of great photos. Todays pocket digitals are awesome....I fish alone many trips but thanks to my mini tripod and delay button I still capture many photos all by myself. 
#18
genieman77
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/13 19:25:02 (permalink)
rsquared
 
 
When genie chimes in, it's a good bet the fish'll be up to Rt. 5
 
 




LOL!!!
 
and guess hoo shows up today
 
 

 
Looking forward to pics of  great smiles your kids have  this season, R2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
...........................................................................................................................
Predictions???
OK, now hear this
 
no better, no worse than the last 10-12 years .
 
there you have it
Now, go beat up some fish..they're easy to find right now, there'll be 6  of 'em surround  by 12 rods at the Stop sign hole 
17  of 'em in the Man Hole with 22 rods lined up on them
 
IT'S ON BABY!!
Pi$$ 'n moan til the creeks ice over, or go fish and have fun
 
..L.T.A.
 
 
 
post edited by genieman77 - 2018/09/13 19:26:41
#19
chrisrowboat
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/13 19:26:26 (permalink)


Proud to have been a FOT/
I've been out fishing.
Clean your gear/
http://www.fish.state.pa.us/cleanyourgear.htm



#20
Divemaster
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/13 19:58:33 (permalink)
There’s plenty of decently-sized fish out deep in the lake right now, should be an okay run this season. I’m more concerned with the next 3-4 years after this season. Very few preyfish out in the lake (other than Gobies) and lots of Waldos munchin’ on the smolts to fill their empty bellies. Runs might be going even further downhill after this year.
#21
pheasant tail 2
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/13 20:53:32 (permalink)
Genie!!!!!!
 
Began dabbling the Erie Ditches in 87. Far fewer fish back on those days, but seldom never saw another angler on middle or upper Elk Creek after November. 
 
PT2
#22
Erie_flyfishing
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/13 20:54:29 (permalink)
Divemaster
There’s plenty of decently-sized fish out deep in the lake right now, should be an okay run this season. I’m more concerned with the next 3-4 years after this season. Very few preyfish out in the lake (other than Gobies) and lots of Waldos munchin’ on the smolts to fill their empty bellies. Runs might be going even further downhill after this year.


Agreed, I’ve heard many reports of Walleye with empty stomachs. They will be searching far and wide for smolts this coming spring
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genieman77
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/13 21:40:40 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby FiveMilePete 2018/09/14 01:03:33
pheasant tail 2
Genie!!!!!!
 
Began dabbling the Erie Ditches in 87. Far fewer fish back on those days, but seldom never saw another angler on middle or upper Elk Creek after November. 
 
PT2






 
same here, PT for Pa water
 
I'm now convinced the late 90s/early 00s were the anomaly years
(same in Ohio too)
 
and what we've seen the 10-15 years is more the norm in reality
 
 
the biggest difference, as you noted, was the lack of pressure.
couple the explosion of anglers starting around '02-'03  with the lose access, and all I can say to guys that started in '08-'09 and later is...
 
"you shoulda been there"
 
it  really was "epic"...fo-reel
 
 
 
Erie_flyfishing
Divemaster
There’s plenty of decently-sized fish out deep in the lake right now, should be an okay run this season. I’m more concerned with the next 3-4 years after this season. Very few preyfish out in the lake (other than Gobies) and lots of Waldos munchin’ on the smolts to fill their empty bellies. Runs might be going even further downhill after this year.


Agreed, I’ve heard many reports of Walleye with empty stomachs. They will be searching far and wide for smolts this coming spring



 
Sky's not falling Kid
I promise
 
..L.T.A.
 
 
post edited by genieman77 - 2018/09/13 21:42:24
#24
FiveMilePete
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/14 01:02:06 (permalink)
rsquared
I predict that the first good run must be close if FiveMilePete is posting!  
 
When genie chimes in, it's a good bet the fish'll be up to Rt. 5
 
 


Hey, Dave!  Golf clubs still in the car, two more tourneys.   Then I may get out. October. 

I have decided when I go out that I will carry one fly box this year.  A dozen each streamers, nymphs, suckerspawn.  The days of running out of a dozen white sucker spawn, shiner streamers, or black wooly buggers are long gone. :-)  

I'll let you know if I see anything on 7.   Don't hold your breath though.  I'm thinking November, as warm as the lake has to be.  
#25
Erie_flyfishing
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/14 05:58:47 (permalink)
Stopped by a few of the creeks right after the rain, and only saw about 10 small jacks in each. We need the lake temp down... once that happens, fish on!
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CAPTAIN HOOK
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/14 10:12:23 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby genieman77 2018/09/14 16:15:09
Those fish will show up regardless of water temps ,it's the loss of daylight that brings them in. Higher water helps the most to keep them in and spread them upstream. 
 
Would still like to see a tagging program or study to see how many caught and released fish actually return another season.  
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fisherofmen376
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/14 10:41:50 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby FiveMilePete 2018/09/16 00:00:56
Literally the same ideas and talk, year after year after year!  (But some cool duuds on here so no biggie)  The names may change but the themes remain. 
Let's talk about access and posted sections too! 

"Come, follow me," Jesus said, "and I will make you fishers of men."
Matthew 4:19
#28
workcanwait....
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/14 12:36:02 (permalink)
Yup soon...WCW
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genieman77
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Re: Prediction 2018/09/14 16:54:03 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby old dog 2018/09/14 19:35:11
CAPTAIN HOOK
Those fish will show up regardless of water temps ,it's the loss of daylight that brings them in. Higher water helps the most to keep them in and spread them upstream. 
 




 
an' ats a fac, Jack
 
They start coming in the same time every year regardless of water or air temps
The only thing that stops them is  lack of water to enter
 
fish the early season (like right now) for years and years regular, you'd know that
 
I'll bet you Timbo (if he's still chasin' steel) has put a bunch  on the bank by now .
and has for years
 
most of y'all think it's rain and cool temps that triggers it...it ain't
It's their internal "bio-clock".... and they'll stack up in hot dry Falls   in 70+ degree puddles at the lower end til water levels allow them to move up
 
By mid/late Oct, the bulk of the run is in at  Elk and 'Nut  ...rain, shine, hot or cold
 
 
You can believe it or not, but that's the way it is
 
 
...........................................................................................................................................................
 
 
fisherofmen376
 
Let's talk about access and posted sections too! 


 
 
and snaggerz,  don't forget snaggerz ..
 
 
 
 
.L.T.A.
post edited by genieman77 - 2018/09/14 17:00:25
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