Screamin Steel
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Your '09 Predictions
After talking to alot of you old timers at trib fishing and finding common agreement on factors influencing the fish movement, etc.....What are your predictions for the coming season based on your past experience and current weather trends? Seems to me that this is the wettest year in some time, and one of the coolest summers I can ever remember. I think its only topped 90 a couple times and once was way back in April. My prediction is the rainy trend and cool weather...an early fall and good numbers of fish headed up by second week of September give or take. My first trip will be the weekend of Oct 10-11, and I'm thinking if my prediction this year falls anywhere close to reality, I'll find my drag screaming with more fish than I can handle soon enough. Here's to eternal optimism! 
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JEB
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 11:22:49
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My prediction is this, I won't get to Erie nearly as often as I would like !
But it looks like it could be an early run !
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eyeofhorus
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 11:52:09
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Prediction - Come September the rains we have been getting will stop and the 80 degree weather will settle in.
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Cold
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 12:00:03
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ORIGINAL: eyeofhorus
Prediction - Come September the rains we have been getting will stop and the 80 degree weather will settle in.
+1 No rain between Labor Day and Halloween.
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Hummer82
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 12:13:31
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joebaker79
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 12:19:04
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My prediction is that you can rarely predict the coming season based on past seasons. In hot summers I had days in early September where fish ran for no reason and hookups all day. After heavy cool rains I've been up where the fishermen were the only ones to run anywhere...the fish didn't get the memo. I've detailed every trip in a journal since 2000.....probably couldn't still find a true formula for much at all except for catching fish. Predicting what day they will come in and how the runs will be is fruitless.
There will be a lot of fish sometime after labor day. In the winter there will be a lot of fish. In the spring there will still be more fish than any other steelhead fishery.
And I will be on the streams at least 1-2 full days a week from September to April.
Forget the season, trying to predict a day of fishing is a enough. Jan 2006 I landed a 13 lb fish at the mouth of an east side creek in 17 degree weather, 30 mph winds coming off the lake, and black skies coming hard. I drove off thinking I better get on the highway quick. Then the sun came out. Went to another creek and landed fish all day and the temps were at 52 by noon and I was taking off layers.
I can tell you what fish will hit on any day they are in....but not when they will come in.
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runtgetter
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 12:53:02
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i predict that as soon as i find a new job the fish will be jumping into boats, swimming into nets, and jumping on shore to confused anglers who didnt think the fish exisisted
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Rapscallion 
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 13:00:19
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By the end of this month, if there is water, they will come. Based on the weather we have had so far, it should be a strong early run. The only thing working against an early run is the amount of daylight. I've seen way too many wet Summers only to be followed by bone dry starts to the Fall though. Predictions are about as solid as last years skein right now. Just bring the water and they will come.
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Bughawk
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 13:06:13
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There will be fish in the streams starting in August and be there until next May. There will also be a ton of people fishing for them. The wall of nuts will be full of interesting characters, the Orvis clad elite fly guys will be patrolling the upper sections of the streams complaining about the crowds, the poachers and snaggers will be out in force. Basically, we will have a typical year of steelhead fishing in Erie. Let the games begin.... I plan on spending most of the fall in the woods hunting; no crowds, peace and quiet and no complaints except for bugs in the early season or too much rain....  Good luck to all who will be chasing the chromers.
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Cold
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 13:08:29
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KMP
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 13:11:38
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I predict a great season, after these summer rains and cooler temps I also think we won't see as much winter weather so early. I think i good run will start by the end of september
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dru2112
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 13:28:35
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geez even i think this is too much steelhead talk too soon
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pxatim
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 13:34:52
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Everyone's gettin antsy... I was fine till everyone started talking about it...
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RhnstnCowboy
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 13:46:13
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I predict KMP will be named Homecoming King and use his status to score digits from all kinds of moderately-hot high school broads, as well as catching his share of 6-9 pound chromers. Its going to be a good fall for the boy.
"Part of being a Leftist is the smug conviction that you and people like you are smart, while everyone else is stupid and/or evil" - T. Fleming
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Cold
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 13:57:51
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ORIGINAL: RhnstnCowboy
I predict KMP will be named Homecoming King and use his status to score digits from all kinds of moderately-hot high school broads, as well as catching his share of 6-9 pound chromers. Its going to be a good fall for the boy.
And Villa will never be the same...
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Deadbolt401
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 14:13:07
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ORIGINAL: pxatim
Everyone's gettin antsy... I was fine till everyone started talking about it...
You know, I was too, and it's hit me. Hi, My names John, and I'm a full blown Steelhead addict!
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dru2112
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 14:35:03
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not yet for me....i'll be ready for all this next month.
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Cold
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 14:55:23
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ORIGINAL: Deadbolt401
ORIGINAL: pxatim
Everyone's gettin antsy... I was fine till everyone started talking about it...
You know, I was too, and it's hit me.
Hi, My names John, and I'm a full blown Steelhead addict!
I'm excited, but, to be really honest, I'm even more excited about reaching my 1 year mark as a fly fisherman, and getting my second crack at all the late summer and fall situations that spanked me and sent me home fishless last year. Terrestrials, october caddis hatches, and I'd like to get into midges by winter. That said, I still need to get a steelhead rod, and once I do, I'm sure my mind will be poisoned from the time I bring it home, till the cork gets some fish slime on it on an Erie trib.  I'm really interested to see if I get any better results this year, after my skills at fly fishing in general have had months to improve. If I see a decent amount of improvement, I'll know that last year's struggles were mostly me, and it'll be an encouragement to know that tough days this year might be improved by still more experience.
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pxatim
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 14:59:01
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ORIGINAL: Cold
ORIGINAL: Deadbolt401
ORIGINAL: pxatim
Everyone's gettin antsy... I was fine till everyone started talking about it...
You know, I was too, and it's hit me.
Hi, My names John, and I'm a full blown Steelhead addict!
I'm excited, but, to be really honest, I'm even more excited about reaching my 1 year mark as a fly fisherman, and getting my second crack at all the late summer and fall situations that spanked me and sent me home fishless last year. Terrestrials, october caddis hatches, and I'd like to get into midges by winter.
That said, I still need to get a steelhead rod, and once I do, I'm sure my mind will be poisoned from the time I bring it home, till the cork gets some fish slime on it on an Erie trib.
I'm really interested to see if I get any better results this year, after my skills at fly fishing in general have had months to improve. If I see a decent amount of improvement, I'll know that last year's struggles were mostly me, and it'll be an encouragement to know that tough days this year might be improved by still more experience.
Just try not to get busted fishing posted land this year 
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clearwater
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 15:03:40
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when it rains like crazy and the water comes up and its not so dam hot there will be fish. lets try this one when the leaves fall there will be fish...
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catchinfish
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 15:32:58
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I might be one of the few but I can't wait for the dog days of some good old winter steelheading. Nothing like freezing your balls off catching some steel. 
"I know not what with weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." -Albert Einstein
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cooljauman
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 15:45:39
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blue power bait and a half ounce sinker will rule the land this year on the tribs
If the world needed and enema, they'd put the tube in Philadelphia. Go Pens! Evgeni Malkin: I'M SCORE S.D.S.G.F.C.
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pxatim
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 15:49:17
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I can't wait to tell everyone that
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Guest
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 15:51:20
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I predict I won't get to Erie half as much as I'd like to. And, I'll probably have one or two days that frustrate the heck out of me and one or two days that make me feel like a steelhead god.
As for when they really run, who knows? Either way, I'll probably make my way up once in mid-September to maybe have one of those awesome days of wet wading and finding a bunch of unmolested, hungry steelhead. Then I'll probably wait till mid-November when the fish seem dumber and hungrier and they're so thick that you can't help but catch a few.
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Stillhead
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 16:52:14
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ORIGINAL: cooljauman
blue power bait and a half ounce sinker will rule the land this year on the tribs
Froot loops duUd, Froot Loops. AlL u kNeAd, tRuSs mE
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Deerslayir
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 17:01:26
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Have been quite a few steelhead caught out in open water the last few weeks. Within the last week there has been a 16#5oz and a 17# steelie caught out deep. I would say overall the average size is 8 lbs with many over into the 10 to 11 lb range already. I personally have caught alot of drop back fish from lake this season and so have many others. Many big fish around it seems. I predict BIG fish this fall, better beef up your terminal for fall run boys
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Deadbolt401
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 17:57:53
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ORIGINAL: Deerslayir
Have been quite a few steelhead caught out in open water the last few weeks. Within the last week there has been a 16#5oz and a 17# steelie caught out deep. I would say overall the average size is 8 lbs with many over into the 10 to 11 lb range already. I personally have caught alot of drop back fish from lake this season and so have many others. Many big fish around it seems. I predict BIG fish this fall, better beef up your terminal for fall run boys
Now, why do ya gotta go and post that. 100 Bucks says I don't catch a fish over 4 lbs.
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dru2112
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 18:04:12
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i'll take that bet. make it 500
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Stillhead
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 18:06:15
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ORIGINAL: Deadbolt401
ORIGINAL: Deerslayir
Have been quite a few steelhead caught out in open water the last few weeks. Within the last week there has been a 16#5oz and a 17# steelie caught out deep. I would say overall the average size is 8 lbs with many over into the 10 to 11 lb range already. I personally have caught alot of drop back fish from lake this season and so have many others. Many big fish around it seems. I predict BIG fish this fall, better beef up your terminal for fall run boys
Now, why do ya gotta go and post that.
100 Bucks says I don't catch a fish over 4 lbs.
SmAll DuUd
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jimhalupka
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RE: Your '09 Predictions
2009/08/03 18:08:36
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I'm gonna catch em on half a crawler and some waxies
"Sure, we can assiduously three-quarter our wets downstream, mend and wait out each fly swing, over and over again, which to my way of thinking, anyway, relegates the angler to the role, not of nemesis as it should be, but of butler." -Art Lee
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