BLOWN OUT

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tribster
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2008/12/09 20:50:09 (permalink)

BLOWN OUT

Brandy run is currently 1.52ft and still going up.  This will be the biggest blow out this year.  This weekend the temps look good.  GAME ON.
#1

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    Mr.Slickfish
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/09 21:00:45 (permalink)
    It has been raining steadily in downtown Erie since I got up at 6am...and is still coming down at 9pm.

    I don't always snag fish, but when I do...
    I choose Little Cleos

    I'm the best looking smartest snagging poacher alive...
    #2
    Esox_Hunter
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/09 21:35:13 (permalink)
    Walnut gauge is at 600cfs and still climbing!!  I am pretty sure Walnut will be at its highest level of the fall also. 
    #3
    Bughawk
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/09 23:19:22 (permalink)
    It is pouring in southern Erie County at 11:20 pm and has been raining all evening.

    pax vobiscum +
    #4
    Skip16503
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/09 23:19:56 (permalink)
    Same on the eastside  I just walked the dogs by the creek and its raging

     



    #5
    FiveMilePete
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 00:05:38 (permalink)
    Any fish making it up them ladders. Skip?
    #6
    Skip16503
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 00:06:08 (permalink)
    BIG STEPS  LOL

     



    #7
    captnkirk
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 07:13:24 (permalink)
    Do you think that this will bring more fish into the creeks? Seems that there are not many fish in the creeks, at least not on the east side. Would they go back to the lake for food and then come back into the creek?
    #8
    spoonchucker
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 07:22:28 (permalink)
    It likely wom't "bring in more fish" at 20 mile, the fish can go pretty far upstream, and are less likely to drop back in low water. In the others, the fish drop back looking for warmer water, not food. It all depends on wether they hung out nearby, or went searching for a more "suitable" stream, as to wether this rain brings fish in, or as to how many.

    Get Informed, Get Involved, And Make A Difference.

    Step Up, or Step Aside


    The next time you say "Somebody should do something", remember that YOU are somebody.

    GL
    #9
    Mr.Slickfish
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 07:33:12 (permalink)
    Still raining steady as of 7:30am Wed.

    I don't always snag fish, but when I do...
    I choose Little Cleos

    I'm the best looking smartest snagging poacher alive...
    #10
    whatsajob614
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 07:44:22 (permalink)
    Walnut already at almost 700cfs ****! That's the highest I've seen it this year. Brandy Run is almost at 200cfs as of 7:42 A.M.
    #11
    spoonchucker
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 07:47:35 (permalink)
    There are flood advisories issued. I'd say go back to bed awhile. They won't be fishable untill at least noon, 2-3 pm for Elk

    Get Informed, Get Involved, And Make A Difference.

    Step Up, or Step Aside


    The next time you say "Somebody should do something", remember that YOU are somebody.

    GL
    #12
    Bughawk
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 08:33:39 (permalink)
    Time to stay home and tie some flies...  We have some minor flooding in southern Erie county.

    pax vobiscum +
    #13
    elephanthead
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 08:48:55 (permalink)
    yeah, I'd charge about noon !  LOL
    #14
    Mr.Slickfish
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 09:22:30 (permalink)
    As of 9am rain has turned to freezing rain/snow. Streets r getting slick. I just drove over upper walnut and it's ROARIN'. Highest level I have seen this year...maybe longer. 

    I don't always snag fish, but when I do...
    I choose Little Cleos

    I'm the best looking smartest snagging poacher alive...
    #15
    indsguiz
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 09:41:30 (permalink)
    Ok guys,
        Now here's my prediction:  Creeks will be blown out till about Friday and unfishable (with any degree of luck) till Sunday afternoon.  If no more rain comes in the creeks should be down nicely by Tuesday  And fish should be coming in.  The floods will bring the fish in (if they are coming in) when the water starts to go down to just above normal.  (Slight high water)  So, I'm predicting Tuesday-Wed for the east side, Wed-Thurs for Elk & Walnut, and never for 12 mile.  Once again,  I advise all people who are interested to only take these observations as suggestions based on about 25 years of experience.  Local conditions can radically affect the quality of the fishing.  I'm hoping for the temps to drop to about 30-34 by Tuesday.  Anybody have any input on the temp predictions?   I'm even thinking about making another Looonnngg drive.
     
    Now here's an interesting thought:   There will probably be hundreds of people who will think that the Walnut & Brady Run Gauges are wrong and everyone on here is lying; and who will make a trip up just to waste gas and rent motel rooms.  The wings at the Tavern are good, But that good?
    post edited by indsguiz - 2008/12/10 09:47:22

    Illegitimis Non carborundum
    #16
    flyfisherman22
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 09:44:24 (permalink)
    well looks like my trip for this weekend is shot.   guess i will have to wait till wednesday to head up

    For the supreme test of a fisherman is not how many fish he has caught, not even how he has caught them, but what he has caught when he has caught no fish."
    ~ John H. Bradley
    #17
    elephanthead
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 09:50:44 (permalink)
    I'm leavin now to get my spot in the honey hole !!!!
    #18
    flyfisherman22
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 09:52:00 (permalink)
    haha there will probably be 100 guys there by now elephanthead ahahaha

    For the supreme test of a fisherman is not how many fish he has caught, not even how he has caught them, but what he has caught when he has caught no fish."
    ~ John H. Bradley
    #19
    pxatim
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 09:59:58 (permalink)
    perfect chumming conditions
    #20
    elephanthead
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 10:04:28 (permalink)
    takin my chum bucket too !
    #21
    flyfisherman22
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 10:08:34 (permalink)
    thata boy, if your going to do it, might as well do it right!

    For the supreme test of a fisherman is not how many fish he has caught, not even how he has caught them, but what he has caught when he has caught no fish."
    ~ John H. Bradley
    #22
    MackJ
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 10:15:09 (permalink)
    If you need to have a plan at this point, then weekend predictions of blown out seem reasonable.  As for myself, I am going to wait to see where the guages are on Friday.  If the rain tapers or turns to snow and ends in the next few hours as it is expected, that leaves about 60-70 hours of no precipitation for the levels to fall before Saturday morning.  I realize the streams are quite high now, but water runs down hill and is apparently doing so rapidly as we speak.
    #23
    joebaker79
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 10:32:25 (permalink)
    I'd guess this weekend will be just fine.  Cold temps and no more rain, with today, tomorrow, and friday to drop, creeks will be in good shape by the weekend. 
    #24
    catchinfish
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 10:35:15 (permalink)
    I think Saturday will be fine.  Like MackJ said with almost 2-3 days of no precipitation the creeks will come down fast.  I like fishing high moving water so it doesn't matter to me, just as long as they're still not blown out.  I doubt they will.  I've seen the creeks blown out up there and within 2 days be ideal for fishing.  LET'S HOPE!!

    "I know not what with weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
    -Albert Einstein
    #25
    razmatazz05
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 10:38:30 (permalink)
    i hope that the last few posts are correct!  more water means that they'd be spread out more and in spots they otherwise wouldn't have been.  one of my best days was fishing in near chocolate milk (no, not on 16)

    "Good Luck"


    Thanks for the usage of your forum. My Money will not go to your tackle shop.
    #26
    Stillhead
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 10:46:18 (permalink)
    They'll be fine by Friday morning if the weatherman is correct. Doesn't matter how high they get, once the water shuts off they drop like rocks.
    #27
    ShutUpNFish
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 10:59:56 (permalink)
    I don't know what all the Hub-bub is about this weekend...If you've fished it long enough, you know that it only takes a couple of days for those creeks to come down after being "blown out".  Don't worry say neyers, it won't be overly crowded anyway, fishable, but not overly crowded

    #28
    elephanthead
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 11:33:36 (permalink)
    Not overly crowded ???   Paul, wouldn't bet on it. we're talkin Erie tribs remember.  Dave
    #29
    ShutUpNFish
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    RE: BLOWN OUT 2008/12/10 12:14:26 (permalink)
    My brother was there Saturday, I know conditions weren't great, but he fished with one other guy and he managed to land 25 fish!  Nobody around.  I'm just saying that the crowds should be cut way back now that the weather has turned as it does every year.  It won't be anything like it was a month ago.  Traditionally, after buck season is when the numbers go way down and is my favorite time to head up in the middle of the week! 

    #30
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