Helpful ReplyHot!Coronavirus opinions

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Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/15 17:07:39 (permalink)
fishin coyote
 
You cannot have one and not the other can you?


When comparing apples to apples, you are correct.  When one is more infectious, then what he is saying most likely is playing a roll to what we are seeing.  There are many other factors as well, at least according to this article.  If really interested in "where's the flu" it is a good read.  
 
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03519-3
 
Here is another good read, explaining how they figure out how infectious diseases are.  This was written in March, so I am sure these high and low numbers may have changed.  Covid looked like it was going away and some on here even claimed the pandemic was over, so I imagine at that time, the low number was pretty low.  Then it spiked like crazy and the amount of cases, hospitalizations and deaths skyrocketed over the holidays and into January.  That along with the GBR variant and the South Africa variant, I imagine the high number is up a bit.  
 
https://theconversation.com/r0-how-scientists-quantify-the-intensity-of-an-outbreak-like-coronavirus-and-predict-the-pandemics-spread-130777
 
DiseaseReproduction number R0Ebola, 20141.51 to 2.53H1N1 Influenza, 20091.46 to 1.48Seasonal Influenza0.9 to 2.1Measles12 to 18MERSaround 1Polio5 to 7SARS<1 to 2.75Smallpox5 to 7SARS-CoV-2 (causes COVID-19)1.5 to 3.5 
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/15 17:18:40 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby CAPTAIN HOOK 2021/02/16 16:18:16
I think it’s pretty obvious why we have no flu season this year, isn’t it?

So consider how effective behavior modification like masks and social distancing has been in slowing the spread of a mildly contagious respiratory disease like the flu.

And then consider how much more contagious and deadly covid must be, in comparison to the flu, when the most widespread mass behavior modifications that we have ever seen in the modern era have all but eliminated a flu season, yet covid still killed 450,000+ Americans.

The picture is so clear; the conclusion is so plainly obvious.

And none of the “covid truther” counter arguments can refute it or explain it away.
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/15 17:21:22 (permalink)
snagr
 
 
without nailing down any one thing.  
  

 
Per this, they don't think it is one thing only and I would guess they won't find it to be one and only one.  But they note it as what they feel as a contributing factor.  It is definitely written as a scientific journal prior to a clear conclusion, so keep things open ended.  But relying on past trends, patterns and how influenza is spread in a similar fashion, they were not surprised that the influenza numbers were down.
 
snagr
 
no idea what new zealand's economic structure is like, but i also wonder how economically sustainable this is for individuals and for the country as a whole.  would think a good chunk of their economy is tourism, but dunno.   
 

No doubt on it being sustainable.  But that could be said with just about any country right now.  It is a global mess.  Some worse than others, but we definitely aren't alone in the financial impact.
snagr
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/17 10:47:12 (permalink)
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https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Cases.aspx
 
at what point did masks, social distancing, and hand washing start working to stop (wolf, levine, pa dept of health messaging from this fall) or slow the spread of covid?  when did they start to flatten the fall and winter curve?  
 
if you pick the dec. 10th case peak in pa, why did it take so long for these measures to start working?  what was it about that date that made them start working?  
 
how about in the u.s. as a whole?  
 
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Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/17 11:13:48 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby crappiefisher 2021/02/17 12:03:40
Can't tell if this is 93% or not.  Maybe blame these guys?  You know, the ones on this very forum that caught the virus and likely passed it on to 2-3 others?
 
I swear that I didn't see that guy's shirt, just thought it was a funny photo...
post edited by Porktown - 2021/02/17 11:15:07

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LDD
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/17 11:35:32 (permalink)
snagr

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Cases.aspx
 
at what point did masks, social distancing, and hand washing start working to stop (wolf, levine, pa dept of health messaging from this fall) or slow the spread of covid?  when did they start to flatten the fall and winter curve?  
 
if you pick the dec. 10th case peak in pa, why did it take so long for these measures to start working?  what was it about that date that made them start working?  
 
how about in the u.s. as a whole?  
 

 
 
 
 
 
 


I would say that "mask compliance data" is highly suspect.  Many cases are passed between small groups not wearing masks.  I don't know how they compile "mask compliance data" but I can't imagine that the actual numbers, in places that count (family gatherings, parties, clubs)  are anywhere near accurate. I would also imagine that if you superimposed statistics from past flu seasons over the covid stats above that you would see common rises and falls in the same places during the peak of darkness and winter.  The virus will do what it does and we can only mitigate it.  
DarDys
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/17 11:59:31 (permalink)
Since you had it, what was your mask compliance?

Same as Governor Wolf who also had it?

The poster formally known as Duncsdad

Everything I say can be fully substantiated by my own opinion.
LDD
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/17 12:15:05 (permalink)
100% at work.  But, I'm pretty sure my wife gave it to me, even though she was asymptomatic.  She is a nurse and was seeing covid patients daily during the time I got it.  At the point I got it I hadn't been at any non masked gatherings or any public places without a mask. Still haven't I guess.  We skipped family Thanksgiving etc... I never wore an N95 though and it's obvious that a cloth mask isn't necessarily protecting the wearer from particles that are breathed in.  There was one other incident that I look back on that may have given it to me after I used a computer that was utilized by multiple members of my HS basketball team and I didn't disinfect it.  
 
I am almost certain that I didn't transmit it to anyone at work or on my team though.  And, my family never got it which is why I'm guessing I got it from them.  Once I felt crappy I quarantined in the bedroom and masked up when I left the room.  
psu_fish
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snagr
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/17 13:11:15 (permalink)
.
post edited by snagr - 2021/02/19 19:32:51
snagr
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/17 13:40:56 (permalink)
LDD
 
I would say that "mask compliance data" is highly suspect.  Many cases are passed between small groups not wearing masks.  I don't know how they compile "mask compliance data" but I can't imagine that the actual numbers, in places that count (family gatherings, parties, clubs)  are anywhere near accurate.

 
pretty much.  
 
contact tracing data shows +/- 70% of transmission occurs in homes among family members (not sure if that includes extended home and social gatherings or not, but would imagine it likely does).  +/- 10% in medical settings.  
 
LDD
I would also imagine that if you superimposed statistics from past flu seasons over the covid stats above that you would see common rises and falls in the same places during the peak of darkness and winter.  The virus will do what it does and we can only mitigate it.  



there's a lot of regional symmetry to the state curves in the u.s., despite the presence or lack of state or locally mandated mitigation measures.  i've shared a lot of pics of 'em in the past month or so.  
 
the c.d.c categorizes influenza and other viral respiratory diseases regions across the u.s. based on the concept of seasonality.  typically, influenza burden starts in the north and migrates south, like we're seeing with covid this fall and winter.  i'm not sure if the magical number of 95% of scientists are on board with seasonality for covid, but there's a lot out there to read from doctors and scientists talking about it.  
 
some of what i'm seeing on twitter, people are saying, "look at florida this fall and winter with no statewide mandates," because comparatively they're doing better than other states with similar population and population density, especially considering their age structure.  but other voices are cautioning that most of florida has a climate unlike any other u.s. state, so they may not have yet had their true season statewide yet.  could get worse there where they end up with another big surge like they did last summer.   
 
 i would guess in many of my posts on here, it gets lost or not said at all that i know it's real.  i know it makes some people really sick - some you'd expect, and others very unexpectedly.  i know it has created great burdens on a lot of health care systems.  i know it kills people - some you'd expect, and others not at all.  it's real and it takes a toll on real lives in many ways.  
 
 
locally for me in butler county, i've been looking at the nursing home data every week or so.  on nov. 1, we had 28 total deaths attributed to covid, with 3 from nursing/ltc.  last i checked last week it was 350 total and 257 from nursing/ltc.  that's 73%.  that's been most of the hospital burden here as well, from what employees i know at butler hospital and in local nursing homes tell me.  certainly not all of it, but a lot of it.    
 
 
 
DeadGator401
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/17 14:11:47 (permalink)
snagr

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Cases.aspx
 
at what point did masks, social distancing, and hand washing start working to stop (wolf, levine, pa dept of health messaging from this fall) or slow the spread of covid?  when did they start to flatten the fall and winter curve?  
 
if you pick the dec. 10th case peak in pa, why did it take so long for these measures to start working?  what was it about that date that made them start working?  
 
how about in the u.s. as a whole?  
 

 
 


I don't get it. Are you advocating for not wearing masks, washing hands, or social distancing? 
DeadGator401
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/18 14:05:41 (permalink)
snagr

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Cases.aspx
 
at what point did masks, social distancing, and hand washing start working to stop (wolf, levine, pa dept of health messaging from this fall) or slow the spread of covid?  when did they start to flatten the fall and winter curve?  
 
if you pick the dec. 10th case peak in pa, why did it take so long for these measures to start working?  what was it about that date that made them start working?  
 
how about in the u.s. as a whole?  
 



So returning here, and seeing some more responses, I'm still confused. Please correct me if I'm wrong here.
It really seems like you're questioning the ability of these things to work, while then admitting to not adhering to them?

Masks and social distancing and hand washing won't stop that which is spread willingly right? So why are we calling that into question?

That's like saying the CDC says to stand under an umbrella to not get wet. Then, you get wet, take an umbrella off those around you, they get wet, and you say "I thought umbrellas work to not get people wet!!"



Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/18 14:36:13 (permalink)
DeadGator401
Please correct me if I'm wrong here.
It really seems like you're questioning the ability of these things to work, while then admitting to not adhering to them?

Masks and social distancing and hand washing won't stop that which is spread willingly right? So why are we calling that into question?

That's like saying the CDC says to stand under an umbrella to not get wet. Then, you get wet, take an umbrella off those around you, they get wet, and you say "I thought umbrellas work to not get people wet!!"



Your observation could not be more correct.  
 
Look at the summer and winter surges.  Summer surge started in the south/sun belt, where restrictions were pulled and "get back to normal"...  Which then spread rather easily once a few people took home to their unsuspecting family members that may or may not have partook in the "back to normal" society.  The winter surge started in the upper Midwest, where idiots were packing in political rallies and other settings without any type of mask or mitigation that the CDC was warning was extremely dangerous on spread.  Which spread pretty easily through the rest of the Midwest, then the rest of the country.  Often one irresponsible person taking home to either a full house of irresponsible others or responsible others that thought they were safe at home.  It is all written in this thread of how the summer was back to normal for those with kids in baseball, pandemic was officially deemed over by September/October, how "no one" in their areas were wearing face coverings in stores, restaurants weren't following mitigation, etc.  It is all written in this thread.  Not a surprise at all, per capita, the counties around Allegheny were far higher in cases earlier in the fall/winter.  
 
Never once did any scientist claim that masks, social distancing, hand washing, etc. would ELIMINATE the virus, it has always been about MITIGATE.  For those that don't understand, that means less, not all.  But some just can't seem to comprehend ideas that aren't all or nothing.  Which seems to come up in just about every topic and seems to be many of the same people that try to argue/debate with the "all or nothing" approach.
 
I hope those that went around pushing this false narrative will one day ask forgiveness from their maker of how many people they potentially infected/hospitalized/killed with their irresponsible behavior.  The responsibility for at least half of the deaths in this country will very likely be proven to lie at the feet of these people.
 
 
CAPTAIN HOOK
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/18 15:59:59 (permalink)
I like that all the politicians that were talking smack against mask wearing and social distancing are the same ones fighting to be first in line to get the vaccine ....go figure ? 
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/18 16:10:03 (permalink)
CAPTAIN HOOK
I like that all the politicians that were talking smack against mask wearing and social distancing are the same ones fighting to be first in line to get the vaccine ....go figure ? 


They all have access to every treatment known and admitted to a hospital room before 99.9999% of the public can even get tested.  I can see why they should have access to the vaccine before the average 75 year old that has worked their entire life and likely has 4-5 conditions that consider them high risk.  Whatabout her emails though?  Lock her up...
Irisheyeball
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/18 16:40:51 (permalink)
Emails-shemales! Somebody stop the baby eating!
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/18 17:12:59 (permalink)
LDD
 
I would say that "mask compliance data" is highly suspect.  

I doubt there was 93% compliance at all times in public anywhere, other than maybe a hospital or infectious disease lab.  
 
I'd love to see the polls this is pulling from.  93% of people that say "they wore a mask at least once this year" or "wear a mask sometimes" is a little different than what Redfield, Birx, Adams, Fauci, Hahn, Giroir and others were promoting as "compliance".  Take out only from restaurants, not taking masks off for any reason indoors with others in that space, and everyone wearing a mask, that one idiot with it is the one infecting people, wearing a mask protects others from you much more than protecting you from the virus.  But yeah, that message was given a fair chance.  Where is that message's birth certificate, hoax!!!  I would doubt there was 93% compliance on that level anywhere in the country besides noted above at places used to taking those precautions.  I'm not going to lie and say that I followed it that closely, I ate in a few restaurants and played a few games of soccer without a mask on.  I'm sure a bunch of other situations where I was not on that level, but the loose messaging and denial had just about everyone wondering.  Whether we would have come close to that with a clear message from everyone buying in, especially the most influential person, who knows?  We definitely would have had a lot more compliance.  Heck, probably 2148.783% compliance if using the calculations from that chart... 
 
I have very little doubt in my mind, if we all followed what those experts were recommending, we'd have a fraction of the cases and deaths that we have.  The economy would still be the same mess and stock market would still be rolling in the free money the government keeps printing.  Maybe the economy might be a little less, since casket sales and other final expense items would be down a bit.
 
There were a ton of adjustments being made by businesses in April/May that would have kept the economy going as well or better than it did, avoiding the huge surge in late fall/winter.  You might even read a few posts back at that time of some predicting the same.
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/18 17:14:45 (permalink)
Irisheyeball
Emails-shemales! Somebody stop the baby eating!

I'm guessing that is really why she bleached her hard drives.  Or, she was bleaching her butthole and accidentally dripped on her hard drive.
r3g3
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/19 10:44:40 (permalink)
I dont disagree with Biden on everything but his catch and release on the border and the end of the tsay in Mexico policy combined with huge numbers of 'sneak ins' due to the perceived open border policy is likely to be the cause of a big increase in 19 in the South.
Ya just cant let in untested and un quarantined thousands in todays world without negative health issues..
 
Heck ya cant even legally fly in from the same countries as the 'illegals' without basic testing and likely quarantines.
 
If it goes sideways he may well be the next Cuomo.
 
Hope to be wrong---
post edited by r3g3 - 2021/02/19 11:15:10
eyesandgillz
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/19 23:30:13 (permalink)
r3g3
I dont disagree with Biden on everything but his catch and release on the border and the end of the tsay in Mexico policy combined with huge numbers of 'sneak ins' due to the perceived open border policy is likely to be the cause of a big increase in 19 in the South.
Ya just cant let in untested and un quarantined thousands in todays world without negative health issues..
 
Heck ya cant even legally fly in from the same countries as the 'illegals' without basic testing and likely quarantines.
 
If it goes sideways he may well be the next Cuomo.
 
Hope to be wrong---



Will Biden get an Emmy too?
EMitch
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/21 08:58:35 (permalink)
In 2019, twenty thousand people died of the flu. In 2020, only 145 people died of the flu, but over 450,000 died of Covid. That is astounding! When was flu vaccine invented that stops the flue 99.9999999%,  and why has the media never reported on it? Biggest news on the planet. Mostly, yearly flu shots are for a particular strain of the flue, (and you most times don't hear about which particular strain is out for this year, and what strain the shot you're getting is for), so this year I got my first flu shot in my life at the VA. The new 4-in1 virus vaccine that's all the rage this year. It would seem using Government figures, that flu has virtually, (well, not quite), been eliminated and is no longer a threat in the US.
 
Think about it. Will miracles never cease?
 
Rag on! But for a few of you, who would take this literally, let me explain. This post is tongue-in-cheek.

It is better to have loved and lost than to live with a psycho for the rest of your life.
eyesandgillz
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/22 10:51:09 (permalink)
Well, I hope being outdoors offers some sorts of protection......the local ski resorts were jammed packed yesterday.  So much for them limiting lift tickets for Covid.  No parking whatsoever at Hidden Valley.  Had to make my own spot in a snow bank on a secondary road.  
People were masked up in lines and they had workers giving friendly reminders.  Weather was awesome and so was the skiing...3 newbies hit the slopes with us and no one got injured so it was a bonus...
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/22 12:48:29 (permalink)
I would think skiing is one of the safer winter things to do.  Unless you happen to be on a gondola with some slob that is knowingly sick and not covering his face...  Or if you spent a good bit of time at the lodge warming up, both your outsides and insides...
 
 
eyesandgillz
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/22 15:51:16 (permalink)
No gondolas up there and I get my $ worth.  Spend most time on the slopes.  We stop at Subway on the way up and get subs for everyone and I have a backpack on w/ drinks, snacks, hot chocolate and the subs.  Have a hard time paying $5 for a gatorade or $11 for a bowl of chili. Usually have a slope side picnic when the urge hits us.  Other than bathroom breaks, not really inside at all.  You are fairly close to others in the lift lines but you are outside and 99% are masked up.  
If I wasn't driving, I'd love to be partaking in beverages but.....
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/22 16:27:36 (permalink)
I wouldn't have any concerns over that, especially with people masked up in the lift lines (what I meant by gondola).  I do the same thing on packing food for stuff like that.  Although, I have not skied in close to 20 years, I did snow tubing at 7 Springs a few weeks ago.  Unless there is some slob that is sick and going out skiing regardless, sharing a chair lift with you without his mouth/nose covered, you might have an issue.  Possibly small chance if someone in line was sick and coughing without their face covered.  Getting out and living a bit, is worth the low risk for the psychological recharge it provides, IMO.  
 
I have heard that 7 Springs is allowing pretty much full out tailgating setups this year, with fire pits and other.  I could see those having a bit more corona concern, if you are partying with strangers.  The more drinks some people down, the closer they want to get and the more they spray it instead of say it...  I could see NFL/NCAA/concert/etc. tailgates being a pretty good source of spread, even being outside.
eyesandgillz
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2021/02/25 11:32:09 (permalink)
Looking like J&J may get emergency approval tomorrow...
 
Also have seen some articles recently on newer drug treatments and protein injections being successful at preventing Covid.  Wonder if they work as well on the new variants?
 
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