Deer numbers

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2013/10/20 21:36:16 (permalink)

Deer numbers

Read yesterday that 120,000 deer killed in Pa by cars. Add , what, 350,000 or so the PaGC says are taken by hunters. I think the Pa estimates are about 1,000,000 deer[ the same as 10 years ago]. If amost 500,000 thousand are killed, between cars and hunters, factor in at least 16% [ 160,000] natural mortality from old age, disease, yotes and bears, these numbers dont add up. This leaves350,000 for breeding. At 1.1 per doe and a 2-1 ratio of females to males, seems tough to keep that number at 1,000,000... I must be missing something.....WF
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    tippecanoe
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/10/21 00:11:56 (permalink)
    I see what you are saying, and it wouldn't make much of a difference, but do you think 16 percent natural loss is high or low?  2-1 female to male, is that pretty accurate?  I'm not being smart, I really don't know.  It doesn't seem that way to me, but it certainly could be.
    #2
    World Famous
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/10/21 03:34:29 (permalink)
    Well, a 6 year old deer is kinda rare , hence 16%.....WF
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    tippecanoe
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/10/21 23:18:09 (permalink)
    that makes sense, thanks, it was late and i wasnt thinking right.  I agree that the numbers dont make sense in the OP.
    #4
    treesparrow
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/11/20 15:24:13 (permalink)
    What time of year is the 1,000,000 population estimate pertain to. That would make a lot of difference.
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    World Famous
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/11/20 17:59:24 (permalink)
    Wouldnt matter. Obviously, it is when the population is at its greatest in a given year. The spiral would just take a little more time.
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    rmcmillen09
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/07 14:22:12 (permalink)
    I saw all 16 of the whitetails in Crawford County today.
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    BloodyHand
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/09 08:03:12 (permalink)
    About where you see em? I seen all 16 in Guys Mills ( Crawford Co. ) on Saturday. Something tells me they travel great distances every day.
     
    BH
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    wayne c
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/10 11:53:12 (permalink)
    Well what are you guys waiting for?   Clearly need to see about dmap for the area before its too late!  The existence of pockets of reasonable numbers of deer is counter to biodiversity and puts the timber industry in jeopardy!
     
    For the love of god, man, think of the trillium!   
     
    lmao. ;.)


    #9
    S-10
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/10 13:26:54 (permalink)
    According to the numbers the PGC uses to justify the doe tags we have the same number of deer now as we did BEFORE AR/HR. Two years ago from the PGC website by WMU they claimed we had 1,328,000 not counting the SRA's which they claim they no longer try to estimate.
     
    Interesting that in the 90's the PGC claimed we were killing  25,000/40,000 deer on the highways and now with fewer deer we are dinging over 125,000.
     
    Anybody care to guess on their harvest claims for the current season?
    #10
    eyesandgillz
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/10 14:02:24 (permalink)
    In 2007, Erie Insurance alone had 14,000 deer collision claims in PA.  And that was the lowest number in many, many years.  They didn't start tracking this data until '98 or '99.
     
    http://www.outdoornews.com/January-2009/Insurance-group-notes-a-sharp-decline-in-the-states-deer-herd/
     
    No doubt deer numbers are down.  I don't think anyone argues that fact.
     
    Numbers from the 90's are most likely "reported" deer incidents and the other number is an estimate.
     
    Erie is the only company that seems to have any "hard" data.  A reasonable estimate can be made if you know the total number of car insurance policies in PA (overall). Erie has a pretty good handle on the overall "rate" of deer collisions per policy holders (10 in 1,000).  In the early 2000's that rate was 12 per 1,000.  
     
    If you have 10,000,000 auto policies (Erie alone has 1.2 million or so in PA), there would be an estimated 100,000 deer/car collisions in PA when you add in all the other companies policy holders.
     
    Not an unreasonable estimate.  This doesn't include the "non-reported" deer/vehicle collisions which there are a lot of.   
    #11
    wayne c
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/10 15:15:56 (permalink)
    "No doubt deer numbers are down.  I don't think anyone argues that fact."

    Of course we all know that.   But does a nonhunting very uneducated public when presented with statistics in a misleading manner (intentional or otherwise).  
     
    If they are speaking in terms of estimated collisions and if previously they had been speaking of actual just prior to hr I would say that's rather deceitful. Intentionally or not would be debatable, but imho pgcs actions over the last 15 speaks for itself in that regard.
     
    Also I think its funny how a stakeholder group that undeniably benefits financially from the reduction of deer  has their numbers used in the pgc propaganda campaign at all, or merits mentioning.  What good comes of it?   Pgc supposedly determines herd status etc. utilizing trends in their OWN various data sets.   Nobody can tell us how many deer collisions we SHOULD have and would be "acceptable",  and it just fosters the common rumors of pgc being "in bed" with insurance companies.  What good comes of it for THEM is that many will see the number, say WOW that's a lot of deer, we need fewer.  At least that's what pgc is hoping.
     
    Insurance giving their input and having it used in propaganda campaign is certainly no worse than dcnr pushing for and spearheading the "regeneration studies" and it being used to determine our "direction"  I guess.   Another "unbiased" concerned stakeholder looking out for all the citizens of the state...or so Im told. (lmao)
     
     
     
     
     
     


    #12
    World Famous
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/11 07:28:32 (permalink)
    Harvest is stable, S-10.....WF.....they are peeing down my back
     
    #13
    S-10
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/11 07:47:25 (permalink)
    You have to remember that the way they do the numbers, since 2005 a actual decrease of 25% from the 2005 population is still considered stable. The crossover point between being considered stable and being considered a decrease is somewhere between a 26% and 29% decrease using their own figures on their website. Something about figures don't lie but (you get the picture). They totally ignore the population in the 90's except to claim it was abnormal.
    #14
    dpms
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/11 08:27:14 (permalink)
    Numbers are surely down quite a bit in the parts of 2A that I am hunting. Perplexing because hunter numbers are down as well over the past 5-6 years especially. Maybe some other factors at play.

    My rifle is a black rifle
    #15
    eyesandgillz
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/11 09:32:17 (permalink)
    EHD?
    #16
    r2g2
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/11 09:36:08 (permalink)
    Am now into 100 hours here in Ct with ONE sighting. Never had that happen in over 44 years on that property . Sign is minimal at best and I seem to be the only hunter out there on a corner of over 800 acres mostly NO hunting-  got about 80 to hunt...
     While driving home last night almost ran over 6 flatheads crossing the road in a large NO area.
    Its not the pressure or the overall harvest where I am- Just very low numbers for some reason.
      Still take the position that states give out too many tags decimating herds in Hunting areas and don't address all the over populated NO areas in an effort to maintain 'average' population densities..
    #17
    dpms
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/11 10:08:37 (permalink)
    eyesandgillz
    EHD?


    Might be contributing overall. I suspect that we are getting hit some every year by EHD despite it not being officially documented. The one farm I hunt is in one of the hot zones for some reason. We find deer remains every fall but it is hard to really tell if it is coyotes or EHD at that point. The ones close to water we chalk up to EHD.

    We don't shoot many does now, but interestingly enough, one of our best bucks years came the year right after the worst of our EHD outbreaks.

    My rifle is a black rifle
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    wayne c
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/11 17:19:15 (permalink)
    Speaking for the area I mentioned south of ya there dpms in the other post, I think its a combo of things, at least where we hunt.   Ehd as you said hits that area a bit more for some strange reason.   And hasn't always been well publicized by pgc either.   Also the coyote numbers have skyrocketed compared to 10 years ago.   I hunted that area almost 30 years now,as has several members of my family and friends over the last 35 years or so.   And through the first 20 plus, none of us EVER saw one coyote at all period until just several years ago in that area.   Prior to that, it was DECADES with no yotes.   Now they are seen regularly and we take a couple or a few over there each year too, not to mention tons of tracks, fed on carcasses etc.   Then throw in the fact we have still had bigtime allocations throughout the last decade or so, and its not hard to see why the numbers are down.  
     
    The worst ehd year going by memory I believe was 2007.   Our favorite two properties to hunt in that areas were flat destroyed at the time.  You couldn't see shat while archery hunting, and had to search long and hard to find a track.  Ride the roads in evening or spot at night and deer were so absent and far between it was spooky. (lol)   Now its certainly not THAT bad as that terrible year, but it sure as hell could be a lot better than it is.  


    #19
    dpms
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/11 19:03:19 (permalink)
    Wayne,
     
    We have seen 6 coyotes the first week alone. I missed one but our crew has gotten two females so far. As we were carrying one out Saturday at dusk, the coyotes were going off on the next ridge over. 
     
    I also saw a bobcat. 

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    #20
    wayne c
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/12 11:52:33 (permalink)
    Yep.  Them cats have really expanded in numbers down here too.   Like coyotes, NEVER saw any until relatively recently.   Now we see them pretty regularly and get 'em on trail cams pretty regular.   I didn't trap this year, but dad did and I went with him on a few checks.  He caught a BIG male bobcat a few weeks ago in a yote set.   Biggest cat I have seen.  He was hoping NOT to catch him as we knew him to be in the area, seen him last few years several times archery hunting and got fairly regular trail cam pics.   Talk about something fun to let go! lmao.    Thankfully it was a good pad catch and there was very little damage to the animal.   Neither of us can bring ourselves to getting cat tags and work on thinnin' em out, Im gettin' soft I guess, but those are some beautiful critters and we kinda like havin' 'em around.   Looks like just the other day ol' Robby took a ringneck down it was fresh kill, nothing eaten on it yet  and it was covered somewhat and hidden along a log in a thicket.   Undoubtably cat work.   Couldn't figure out where he got it though, no land stocked with them around there for miles that I know of anyway.


    #21
    wayne c
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/12 12:25:39 (permalink)




    #22
    eyesandgillz
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/12 14:55:26 (permalink)
    Cool pics.  Bet that was a handful releasing.  How did it react when you guys got close?
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    dpms
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/12 16:20:48 (permalink)
    I bought a cat tag this year just in case. Would love to add one to go with my black coyote.

    Eyes,

    We released one a few years ago and the sounds that came from that thing are sounds you never forget. Pretty cool stuff for sure.

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    #24
    wayne c
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/12 17:52:28 (permalink)
    Gills, he tried running away and made a few semi-circles trying to avoid dad & his (way too short!) snare catch pole. lol    I moved to the side opposite dad so the cat was then unsure which way to go and just sat there trying to act mean,...   He growled some deep very deep very nasty intent sounding growls that make you a little weak in the knees even thinking about getting really close. lol.    Dad had no choice but to choke him down with the snare pole which just temporarily cuts off blood flow of the carotid arteries etc. with the noose, and doesn't take long and isn't too hard with cats and it does no damage, although he fought the hell outa the snare pole and made some nice new claw gouges in it.   Soon as he goes limp,  gotta get the noose off as soon as you think its safe so the blood flow starts again and get the trap off quickly.   Works kinda like the mma guys using a rear-naked choke.   Same principal.  I read about the technique in a trapping mag.  Other than that I have NO clue how one would get a large bob out of a foothold.   This guy was aggressive and big. lol.  Smallish cats, you might have other options, like throwing something over it or whatever....   He woke up very shortly thereafter and sat up.   Then after a few small logs tossed near him, he took off up over the ridge no worse for wear. 
     
    Dad told stories in the past about throwing his jacket over dogs etc. to release when he didn't have a snare pole with him.  Before he used the snare pole to let the cat go, I told him to try it, jokingly.   He looked all serious and started taking off his coat.  I said wtf do you seriously think youre gonna do with that?    He tossed it on the cat while it was laying on its side looking at me, and it rolled onto its back with all four feet going and swiping 90 miles an hour, the coat never stood a chance. lol  While that was in progress I said:  Ok!  grab him now!    lol .
     
    It was without a doubt a thirty plus pounder having handled and seen cats of known weight in past.  Also a female in the same area that is just a little over half his size that raised one kitten last year.
     
    Those cats are awesome, if legal I would have one as a pet brought up from kitten, no ands ifs or buts. lol.
    post edited by wayne c - 2013/12/12 17:55:18


    #25
    dpms
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/12 19:51:30 (permalink)
    Cats are not good to noose if you want it to live. Very soft throats unlike dogs. Damage can be easily done. Best way to release a cat is with a piece of plywood that has a notch cut out of it in the bottom. Work the chain into the notch and push to cat till the paw  and trap is free to undo the jaws. 
     
    Not pretty or easy but way better for the cat. 

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    dpms
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/12 19:54:35 (permalink)
    Here is a cat we released. You can see how the plywood notch trick would work just by how she is holding her paw while trying to get away from the trap. 

     

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    wayne c
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/12 21:01:30 (permalink)
    "Cats are not good to noose if you want it to live."
     
     Ive read instances of some very noted trappers doing it, figured if it was good nuff for them was good nuff for me.  Ive also read of their concerns when doing so.   Of course there are precautions need be taken....  Only hold the noose as tight as need be to so as the cat cant escape it.  NOT pull on the noose as hard as one can or overdo it.   ALso don't leave it on any longer than necessary for cat to go out, no longer.   Have to use common sense of course.   Dad and I discussed it during the ordeal and he was on the same page.     This cat was fit as a fiddle.  After coming to, I watched him very closely.  A minute or so after coming to, he was perfectly alert, no respiratory or any other distress, just didn't know the trap was off his foot.   Then like said, took off like a jet when branch or two hit near his rump.
     
    "Very soft throats unlike dogs."
     
    Not exactly as delicate as a petunia blossom that'll wilt if touched.. lol, but yeah, they aren't as sturdy there as the very tough dog family necks, and I would imagine much more difficult to choke down a dog and thankfully they only have a mouth, and not a mouth plus 4 clawed paws so you never would have to.   Now that you mention it I have several times read of guys using the plywood method, and would certainly seem to be a little easier on all involved.  Never really given a whole ton of thought to it, through the years most of our land lines have been void of cats and often our traps are well off the roads, and often we trap individually alone, and carrying a fair amount of remake gear...and sometimes an animal to boot,  but it may actually be worth the hike back to the truck once in a rare case of a trapped cat, at least having one it the truck.   A little easier no doubt.
     
    I personally would have no qualms about dad or myself doing the deed again as described if needed, but if someone else asked my opinion on how to do it, Im with ya, they should probably use the plywood method.   And may even do so myself in the future if I can remember to throw it in the truck especially if two of us are trapping and it can be a two person job. Might be kinda tough with only one person holding the wood and releasing the springs on the trap.   Could get interesting real quick lol. 
     
     
     
      
     
    post edited by wayne c - 2013/12/12 21:49:10


    #28
    wayne c
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/12 21:03:34 (permalink)
    Btw, nice pic!  Shes a Purdy girl.
    Who'dda thunk it 15 or 20 years ago we'd one day have more cats & yotes down here than the friggin northwoods? lol.
    post edited by wayne c - 2013/12/12 21:13:47


    #29
    Esox_Hunter
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    Re: Deer numbers 2013/12/12 21:43:12 (permalink)
    Wayne, very cool pics.  I have never seen a cat in the woods.  Coyotes and bears have infiltrated my area pretty good within the last 5 years though...
     
    Back to the deer, I haven't been hearing any good reports thus far from friends and coworkers hunting in PA this season.  This includes some reports from the supposed deer mecca known as 2B. 
     
    I will be out with my buddy tomorrow once it warms up trying some silent drives to help him fill his buck tag.  Good luck to everyone.
     
     
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