Youth and Hunting =

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Dr. Trout
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2011/11/18 20:36:51 (permalink)

Youth and Hunting =

Here is some interesting information I also received this morning in my E-mail communications...


we hear so much about the interest of youth in Pa hunting... here is a study/report on hunter ed classes and the number of kids trained nationwide ... blank spaces are for the states that did not supply results..

2010 Hunter Education Report

Jurisdiction -- Students


Alabama 13469
Alaska 1841
Arizona 4102
Arkansas 14878
California
Colorado 16400
Connecticut 2407
Delaware 1223
Florida 12127
Georgia 13744
Hawaii
Idaho 8576
Illinois 15035
Indiana
Iowa 8945
Kansas 8365
Kentucky 13002
Louisiana 19262
Maine 5633
Maryland
Massachusetts 3210
Michigan 21399
Minnesota 23112
Mississippi
Missouri 30720
Montana 6500
Nebraska 6201
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey 6258
New Mexico 4615
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota 5160
Ohio 19015
Oklahoma 17475
Oregon 5138
Pennsylvania 30213
Rhode Island 786
South Carolina
South Dakota 3689
Tennessee 14908
Texas 41762
Utah 10907
Vermont 3773
Virginia 13567
Washington 11641
West Virginia 8314
Wisconsin 25586
Wyoming 5668
------------------
Total 478626


and this comment which I did not realize was a problem..

Our data indicates that lack of HTE classes especially when people want them (fall) may be a critical reason jr. sales have declined. This year we added some classes in October & November and trained (an extra) 7,000 people! We still turned away people who couldn't find a class nearby.
post edited by Dr. Trout - 2011/11/18 20:42:23
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    DarDys
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    RE: Youth and Hunting = 2011/11/21 07:42:49 (permalink)
    Good info Doc.
     
    What is the percentage of youths trained in relation to the number of hunters in the state and what is the percentage of the youth trained with respect to the number of those that actualy move forward and purchase a youth hunting license?

    The poster formally known as Duncsdad

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    Outdoor Adventures
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    RE: Youth and Hunting = 2011/11/21 17:04:10 (permalink)
    Curious what percentage of those numbers are youth's that get PA training and then hunt neighboring states. In my opinion just more make believe numbers put up by who ever cares to make them up.
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    Dr. Trout
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    RE: Youth and Hunting = 2011/11/21 18:08:44 (permalink)
    What is the percentage of youths trained in relation to the number of hunters in the state and what is the percentage of the youth trained with respect to the number of those that actualy move forward and purchase a youth hunting license?


    Way to much MATH for me Dars
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    DarDys
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    RE: Youth and Hunting = 2011/11/22 08:27:25 (permalink)
    ORIGINAL: Dr. Trout

    What is the percentage of youths trained in relation to the number of hunters in the state and what is the percentage of the youth trained with respect to the number of those that actualy move forward and purchase a youth hunting license?


    Way to much MATH for me Dars

     
    Understood.
     
    My point is this, without you doing all of the math:
     
    With regard to the percentage of youth trained in relation to the number of hunters, the resultant percentage shows how large of a proportion, indicating the number of future hunters (unless a high percentage quits), there is of youth to adults.  As an example, if State A trains 500 youths and State B trains 5,000 youths that does not necessarily mean that State B is more youth "friendly," for lack of a better term and that there is a great future for the hunting tradition in that State because these are just raw numbers.  To put them into perspective, we need to know how many adult hunters there are in the state.
     
    Again, State A trains 500 youths, but there are only 5,000 adult hunters.  That means that State A has trained an additional 10% of possible hunters that could move forward to become hunters and hopefully adult hunters.  While State B trained 10X more youths that State A, let's say that State B has 100,000 adult hunters.  That means that they trained 5% of their current population census of possible hunters.  In other words, State B trained, in terms of raw numbers, 10 times the number of possible hunters than State A, but State A trained 2 double the number of possible hunters in relation to their current hunter population and is actually carrying on the hunting tradition much stronger that State B, albeit with few actual possible hunters.
     
    With regard to the percentage of youths that are trained vs. the number that actually purchase a license, and more importantly continue to purchase a license for some number of years into their adult license years shows if the efforts of the training bore fruit with respect to getting youths interested in hunting and then keeping that interest.
     
    An example here would be that State A again trains 500 youths with 400 of those youths buying a license the first year or 80%.  The other 20% may not buy a license for various reasons -- parents "made" them take the course because they wanted their youths to hunt, but the youths didn't want to hunt; took the training in one state where they live because it is more convienent, but will use it to purchase a license in anieghboring state; etc.  A point of note here is, again, raw numbers don't tell the whole story because a youth trained does not necessarily turn into a youth hunter.  Further, it is important to know what happens in succeeding years.  Let's say that of the 400 that purchased a youth license the first year, 300 purchase on the next year; 250 purchase one the third year, and so forth until at age 18 -- a few years into the adult buying license cycle, that number is 125 of the original 500 that took the class.  This means that 25% of the orignal class takers stuck with hunting up to this point.  Coupling this data with the percentage of adult hunters census at the inception of this training class, that would mean that for that year class, 2.5% took the class and stayed with hunting.  Of course, the 18 -22 year old number may drop because of starting jobs, going to post secondary education, joining the military, etc., but for this model, what needs to be known is how many hunters are attritting out of the census due to age, injury, lack of interest, etc.  Is it greater than 2.5% or less?
     
    Of course, while this orignal class makes it way through the adult licnes process, there are now several other classes behind it that will add to the total.  All of this data is required to understand the big picture -- not just a snap shot of raw numbers of youths trained.

    The poster formally known as Duncsdad

    Everything I say can be fully substantiated by my own opinion.
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    Dr. Trout
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    RE: Youth and Hunting = 2011/11/22 09:00:58 (permalink)
    All that math may seem good on paper but...

    How can you compare how many kids are turning 12 and thus able to attend training classes against all adult hunters ... there will ALWAYS be a huge difference in numbers ...
    one of the varying factors in recruiting youths is just how many kids there are at any given age ech year ...

    same for junor hunters , there are only so many youth at that age in the whole state.. I do not think you can thus compare that to ALL the adult hunters of all ages...

    maybe it would be better to just compare mentors and juniors against only those over 65 years of age... how many going out at that age strictly based on age and desire compared to how many are coming in based on age and desire......


    I'm almost sure if we trained 20,000 youth last year and had to turn many away.. we did not have that many seniors leaving the sport...

    you guys keep saying we lost 200K over the past 10 years or so, at 20,000 new youths that would balance 0ver 10 years .. trouble is we are losing many between 30-45 years of age... and many of those is because of the youth's other activities other than hunting...

    I believe Pa is still in that group that only around 10% of the population are hunters in the first place...

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    RE: Youth and Hunting = 2011/11/22 10:24:32 (permalink)
    I don't have much faith in number statistics. Ever wonder how many buy a hunting license and only go hunting one or two days ? Numbers can be misleading.
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