nysteelieguy
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Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
Based on the lack of fish this year and last, how do you think next year's numbers will be? I'm thinking they will be a little better than this year, but nowhere near years past.
If I had to venture a guess, I'd say in 3 years we will be back to blowout numbers.
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KJH807
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/11/15 15:30:51
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nysteelieguy
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/11/15 17:13:59
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ORIGINAL: KJH807
dude
2017 will be EPIC
That's a little vague. Could you be more specific?
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KJH807
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/11/15 17:44:26
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2017 is quite specific
its the year after 2016 and the year before 2018
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heyiknowyou
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/11/15 18:01:19
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the world is ending in 2012, so much for the three year prediction... 
go back to spain 11-12-11: the last time i got punched in the face
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Kokanee Killer
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/11/15 18:28:40
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I have become comfortably numb
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deetz4352
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/11/15 18:35:22
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I Predict that I will be catching steelhead every year like years past until I am incapable of doing so. I cant ever remember having an off year. But thats just me.
The Deetz
The Deetz Fishermen are born honest,but they get over it
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hookedonsteels
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/11/15 18:50:02
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We are not done beating this year up. Can't this wait for a while. 
No working during fishing hours TTTTTTODAY JJUNYA
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smally hunter
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/11/16 10:09:03
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hookedonsteel , thats what im thinking , maybe just maybe the runs you people are looking for will be late this year .. ive been up three times this year and have hooked up less than twenty times, and the 2 fish i landed where tiny ... but id settle for days on the water like ive had rather than no days out at all ...
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jrm45
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/11/16 11:50:34
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ORIGINAL: deetz4352
I Predict that I will be catching steelhead every year like years past until I am incapable of doing so. I cant ever remember having an off year. But thats just me.
The Deetz
+1..... I havent noticed a drop in fish.... havent had a problem finding, or catching them... maybe thats just me too.....
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Loopy
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/11/16 12:30:52
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Yep. The steelies will be wiped out by 2017.
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glen
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/11/19 06:49:13
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Better rope em now cause there won't be any next year. It was fun while it lasted.
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Bonezee77
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/11/19 20:04:07
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I heard the fish commission has been secretly stocking 2 year old burpits in the tribs and anticipating a new lake run breed to replace the steelhead because of the decline of steelhead.They should be showing up in the cricks in the next couple years.I wonder what kind of bait this new breed of burpits will be harvested on?
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deetz4352
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/11/19 20:12:25
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""I wonder what kind of bait this new breed of burpits will be harvested on?""
Weighted trebles , what else?
The Deetz Fishermen are born honest,but they get over it
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Bonezee77
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/11/19 20:22:04
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With an orange power bate dropper?Burpitz On!
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Fish5000
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/11/19 20:55:35
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ORIGINAL: hookedonsteels
We are not done beating this year up. Can't this wait for a while.
Excellent Philospohy hookedonsteels! You have the right outlook and I presume are rather successful . How can you not be ? ! ? !
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Livinfishin
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/11/30 22:14:09
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ORIGINAL: nysteelieguy
Based on the lack of fish this year and last, how do you think next year's numbers will be? I'm thinking they will be a little better than this year, but nowhere near years past.
If I had to venture a guess, I'd say in 3 years we will be back to blowout numbers.
I think we might have hit rock bottom this year. No where to go but up. Blowout numbers will happen again, just be patient. Then again we still have people denying that there is a serious decline in fish numbers this year. Why some people are afraid to admit the obvious is beyond me.
post edited by Livinfishin - 2010/11/30 22:17:45
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pafisher
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/11/30 23:17:08
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ORIGINAL: Livinfishin
ORIGINAL: nysteelieguy
Based on the lack of fish this year and last, how do you think next year's numbers will be? I'm thinking they will be a little better than this year, but nowhere near years past.
If I had to venture a guess, I'd say in 3 years we will be back to blowout numbers.
I think we might have hit rock bottom this year. No where to go but up. Blowout numbers will happen again, just be patient. Then again we still have people denying that there is a serious decline in fish numbers this year. Why some people are afraid to admit the obvious is beyond me.
They don't want to discourage the "sucker" run,they need the bread.
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steelhound
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/12/01 00:26:03
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numbers are down this year, and its been said before, but you can't kill so many fish every year and expect the same return. fire away.
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FiveMilePete
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/12/01 02:26:50
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ORIGINAL: steelhound
numbers are down this year, and its been said before, but you can't kill so many fish every year and expect the same return. fire away.
There is just no way that fish kept has caused the low numbers this year. I've seen very few fish even hooked this year on the east side, much less kept. Same thing last year, and the year before. Some of the creeks are down to less than 10 % of the fish that they had at this time 5 years ago. There's been plenty of rain and flow. I saw more deer than fish at 7 mile last week. Something else going on. Yeh, I know guys are still catching fish, but no where near the numbers in years past. I've seen folks leaving 20 mile after 8 hours, without one fish. And 20 mile is getting the most fish on the east side. Just compare the reports this year to 6 or 7 years ago. Guys this year are reporting hookups, not fish landed. And are boasting that they hooked up a dozen times. Is everyone who is landing that mythical 30 per day average being quiet about it? Just BS.
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dano
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/12/01 11:41:09
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Maybe it's just natures way of balancing things out. I dunno. So, I just try to make the most of what we have. Never did mind working a little harder to catch a few. Just makes the ones you catch a little more special. But then, I do think stripers in Lake Erie would be way cool. 
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Bughawk
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/12/01 11:43:39
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I predict there will be steelhead in the streams next year.
More people keeping fish and killing fish, walleyes eating smolts, smolts getting slaughtered in the spring by clueless fisherman, Russian mafia snagging and netting fish, commerical fisherman keeping fish, etc... Each of these contributes to the decline in numbers. It all adds up...
BTW - I was talking with one of the guys who works at Poor Richards and he said they process about 1000 fish per week at their store alone.
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cooljauman
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/12/01 11:44:07
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If the world needed and enema, they'd put the tube in Philadelphia. Go Pens! Evgeni Malkin: I'M SCORE S.D.S.G.F.C.
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seven
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/12/01 17:12:40
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Bughawk hit on one of the issues. There are more people fishing than ever and more fish being hooked and kept. You can set at Walnut, Elk, or any Mile creek and count how many fish are being drug through the parking lots. this decreases the numbers caught upstream and following seasons. I d think the limit should go to 2 fish and the PFBC should enforce the waters much more. They say one meal a month due to the PBC's and each steelhead yields 4 meals. One trip of three fish gives you one meal a month for the YEAR! I have a feeling alot of the fish are ending up freezer burnt or wasted instead of turning into the next TROPHY catch. I feel you cannot kill all the fish and have fish left for the next season or so. We do have a put and take fishery but they are not salmon and they can return if given the chance. This reminds me of alot of people who hunt and want to kill as many does and deer as possible then **** there are not as many deer.My 2 cents.
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Riverbum
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/12/01 18:04:04
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This is such old news. Im bored at work, bored at home and bored with this site. Frankly IMO, guys taking their daily limit have almost no impact on the reduction of fish this year or any other. It's down the list from walleye predation, and the "run" being spread out over more of the creeks in recent years as opposed to just the larger tribs. Maybe the genetic imprint to "run to PA" isnt as strong. Maybe its brown trout predation, maybe its anglers mishandling smolts in the spring. Maybe its commercial fishermen. Maybe its the orientals and the russians and the mexicans and the Canadians and the guys from Kentucky taking more than their limit. Maybe its a FC conspiracy. Whatever. It's cyclical. The numbers aren't there but there are alot of fish still to be caught if you do more than sight fish and/or hang out within 200 yards of the access points. I can't wait for this weather to turn 'cause I'm coming up and if I catch only one chromer, I'll praise the LORD for a glorious day! I'm out.
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Bughawk
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/12/01 19:27:05
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I was not pointing to any one thing that is contributing to the less fish, but rather it is a cumulative effect of a number of different things. Fish leave the system in many ways. Every fish that is kept for whatever reason, every fish that is killed for whatever reason, every fish that is eaten by another fish is one less fish in the stream. That is my point. The greater the number of fish removed from the system, the less you will see in the streams.
Riverbum is right, there are fish around, maybe not the insane numbers of years past, but there are fish.
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seven
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/12/01 22:55:03
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I understand your point riverbum but I must agree with Bughawk. 1,000 fish cleaned a week is ALOT of fish (Do the math- this is 4000 per month for X months and how many are stocked, how many eaten by prey, etc). I did state it is a put and take fishery but releasing a future trophy is a wise move. I wish everyone would keep one less fish for the future runs and future fisher kids as well who may go to Erie in a year or two to catch "steelhead fever". Keeping too many is only one of several issues with lighter runs. This is one we can help make an impact by choosing to not kill as many fish. Everyone is entitled to their opinion but common sense tells the story.
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ShutUpNFish 
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/12/02 06:47:24
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I would say as far as numbers go, it is most definitely a better year than last year....NO DOUBT in my mind.
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TJBKR01
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/12/02 07:30:15
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I am just happy that when I make the trip up, I have the opportunity to catch what it is I am fishing for, with soon to be the added bonus of Browns. SEVEN, "one meal a month for a year". Not always are the fish taken for the person carrying them. It can be just like shooting deer, sometimes it is to put food in the freezer for other people.
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Riverbum
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RE: Predictions for fall 2011 fall steelhead run....
2010/12/02 07:41:11
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ORIGINAL: seven
I understand your point riverbum but I must agree with Bughawk. 1,000 fish cleaned a week is ALOT of fish (Do the math- this is 4000 per month for X months and how many are stocked, how many eaten by prey, etc). I did state it is a put and take fishery but releasing a future trophy is a wise move. I wish everyone would keep one less fish for the future runs and future fisher kids as well who may go to Erie in a year or two to catch "steelhead fever". Keeping too many is only one of several issues with lighter runs. This is one we can help make an impact by choosing to not kill as many fish. Everyone is entitled to their opinion but common sense tells the story.
For the record I always practice C&R. I didnt say taking fish wasnt an issue, it's just far down on the list of explanations.
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