Did I ever say how much I hated the weather man?

Actually, it wasnt terrible, STRONG S/SSW wind sucked but it was fishable within 40' or closer. Right around 9:30 the front moved through and turned some fish on. But they werent very active, they came out of that lake as cold as a beer. Interesting day...

~Nate

ORIGINAL: mikelravy

Where else can you be wrong half the time and still keep your job or not go out of business?

George W Bush

...so true...so true marty!!

1 Point Carpet Bagger.  Good one!

Well generally i can make my own observation anymore.  There are enough links like weather.com that allow you to look at the radar and usually you can see if a system is headed in your general direction...I do pretty good anymore on predicting...maybe i should start my own weather for fishermen...
 
I can say one thing...looks as though some NASTY stuff is headed our way today and tonight....i wouldnt advise anyone to be on the lake in the next few hours...massive storm cell coming fast...

ORIGINAL: Carpet Bagger

half...If they are right 30% of the time id be suprised...lol

 
 
Baseball players who hit 30% of the time are superstars, and make a little more than our president and meteorologists .

I guess my only response to this tread would be to say that forecasts made now are as accurate as they have ever been. The 1-2 day forecast accuary scores are as high as they have ever been (both by humans and computers).
 
Now in saying that, it's also true that their have never been so many sources for forecasts and such a need to communicate forecasts to users. Many, including me, believe miscommunication of forecasts and weather information to people are the major cause of why people think the forecast went wrong.
 
Of couse, then there are always bad forecasts.

You have no idea how many times I listened to the weather man and not went fishing and been soooo mad at him cause it was beautiful and weather was so far off what he predicted, anymore I just get my boat go to the marina and make my own observation,more times then not I have went fishing and enjoyed myself. I mean honestly they call call for T-storms like 4 times a week it seems, and we are lucky to even get one a week.

how can u miss a thunderstorm with radar??
 
Red = BAD

wxfisherman,

I remember you got waffled on here a few years ago for not predicting a storm 100% correct and have not posted much since.  I thought that was bs as I remember.

Anyway..

I don't know who you guys are watching, but my observations are that they are near perfect as of the last year few years.   Remember -- when a weather man says 40 % chance of rain, doesn't mean it's going to rain.  Wife sees there's a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms, oh, it's time to cancel.  That doesn't mean it's going to rain 30% of the time, or that it's going to rain hard, or that it's not going to rain at all.  It could rain hard here and not at all 20 miles away.  It's a forecast or prediction of a 30% chance.  I think I can recall one time in about 12-15 years of being obsessed with weather patterns, where the weatherman was wrong when he said "chance of precip 90%"  .. or greater.  One time ..  and I'm obsessed with studying weather because it is important for the things I love to do and I just happen to think it's interesting.  Perhaps, the viewer is overlooking the obvious and not paying attention to detail and the reality of nature.  I could only hope we wouldn't trust a 10-15 day forecasts as it consistently changes.  Learn to use your own judgement trying to predict precipitation with radar and only pay attention to day before (I still use caution here) and day of forecasts, then use you own judgement on top of that. When an area is favorable for thunderstorms, that doesn't mean it's going to happen, or not.  It means it COULD.  There is almost NEVER a 100% chance of rain from an afternoon thunderstorm, even 80%.  Especially where mountains exist.  If you're heading out at 2 p.m. and there's a 50% chance in the Erie area, you could get hit.  So could Girard, or State Line.  The area is favorable, take your chances.  That's all you can do.   Many times, an area cannot be predicted to be favorable for thunderstorms until the day of.

I'm not real sure why anyone would even rely on a wave forecast in the first place.  Assuming the wind is effecting the water you're fishing, why would you?  The wind shifts all the time.  It's not something that can be predicted accurately on a consistent basis.  You just can't do it~!!!.

What is the radius that is considered in and near thunderstorms? like does that mean that if it is storming in Utah?

Ive seen forcasted 1-3's (offshore) be 3-5 on several occasions in clear weather...They can get it close...but are certainly WRONG on many occasions when it comes to wind and wave height especially when you are looking days ahead of time...This is why they say 40%...it might not rain...But if it does...hey you almost coulda flipped a coin at it....

When you deal with a body of water that gives u hundreds of miles of open space wind is fairly hard to predict...just some days you wonder how the heck some of these guys got jobs...they must have got D's in school...

Walcat, don't know how many times we're out there and put on the weather and after the report my brother and I just roll our eyes and wonder what planet they're on. I suppose they're (the weatherpeople) are good at horseshoes too!      Dave

Forcasting the winter weather in Bradford was easy-Erie should be about the same.

S##tty with continued S##ttyness. 

Walcat, the only good weather report will come from the boat off our stern. LOL  Dave

This is quite interesting stuff. I guess everyone will just not use any forecast and go by the seat of their pants.