I actually don’t think this affects the election much at all, either way. The firm support on both sides won’t budge. Obviously.
Independents and undecided voters this cycle seem to be more motivated by their pocketbook right now, and there is a strong belief that republicans and trump are better for the economy. Personally I think that’s crazy and I could argue all day about whether it’s accurate… but regardless of whether it’s actually true or not, a lot of people are going to vote for trump because they think he will magically reverse inflation and make everybody rich and prosperous. People will look past all kinds terrible things if they think their financial conditions will improve.
If I had to guess, this probably eventually gets tossed on appeal. Just like all his other legal entanglements, he delays, appeals, keeps pushing it back further and further and further… and eventually people just stop caring. Must be nice to have enough money to do that.
It really is kind of a big deal though. A former president has been convicted of a felony. But after what, 10 years of trump nonsense, we are all just desensitized to the trump circus and alot of people are just tuning it out.
I could be wrong. There are still enough undecided voters to swing this election either way. Polling over the next couple weeks should tell us whether this will influence them. But there will also be alot of time for people to just memory hole this, just like they did with every other crazy nonsensical trump story from the last 10 years.