Sooo, why the poor returns this year so far?

I say the overloaded population of walleye, eating smolts and competing with food.
 
What say you? 
 
This should be entertaining

The really worst cycles of retuning fish started about 7-8 years ago as compared to other past returns . From reports last year was decent probably being the best in the last 7 years still not comparable to the early 2000 runs . When you can catch fish steady from I-79 on Elk Creek and jump in your vehicle and travel to the mouth and catch more fish all in the same day ....now that's a good run ! The early 2000 runs were unreal fishing spoilers in all tribs. Most holes were stacked with pods of steelhead for miles of creek travel.
 
Just guessing and IMO the stockings have been cut way back over the past ten years . Without looking at data I'd tend to think that's the main reason . Erie tribs can only support a certain number of fishermen with creek access and the huge influx of fishermen only jeopardizes the whole system as far as parking , legal land access , litter , noise and so on. Cutting fish numbers decreases interest and travel for many out of towners ,but just stocking enough numbers to keep Steelheading interesting . 
 
Remember the early first runs are always somewhat good ,but how many fish show up after those is what makes the great runs. 
 
 

I’ve seen no shortage of fish this year. Or last.
Less than 10-12 years ago, but still plenty for me and others. More duuds this year because of drought the first month and book facing stekkhead report pages. Gotta love the inturdnet.

L.T.A. what I'm lurnen from these boards is, it don't matter what you experienced in real life. If it ain't dun in anuthur state the way you sayed it happoned hear or if u duzen't hey've sceintifik pruuf.......it didn't happen.

noW ef i culd jus lurn to keep mi mouth shut-up, thAt wuud be lurNin......😬 it ain't happening.

Guud nuff foUr me, ur rIte cept I just kan't remimbir aBout whAT.

Low water in the fall,  Steelhead spawn in spring, early warm springs.
Sounds a lot like global warming.

FISHUSA reports saying all the creeks are jammed full of fish, their entire lengths.
Other reports saying stuff like:

"Real report here. Made the three hour drive yesterday to Erie. Less than 40 fish from the wall to the waterfall on Walnut, watched two fish caught all day and over 100 people in that section alone. Was told Elk wasn't any better. SAVE YOUR TIME AND MONEY , Don't go up until they get rain/fish."

Somebody is wrong here.  What's up?  I'm still suffering but have been checking the East side, and haven't seen a lot of fish, anywhere.   

chrisrowboat
Low water in the fall,  Steelhead spawn in spring, early warm springs.
Sounds a lot like global warming.

Whether Chris was just joking or not, but low water in the fall and early warm springs definitely sound like reasons for low returns to me.  I could definitely see high numbers of walleye contributing to the smolt mortality as well, but as others noted that there have always been walleye.  I remember in the later 80s fishing the tribs with my dad, hearing guys talking about walleye eating the baby steelhead.  My dad and I never tried it, but had talked about making trips to try and catch said walleye.  
 
It is not like these fish "have to" run the creeks in the fall.  I believe they run them in the fall, to look for food.  Their biological alarm I believe, is to follow the salmon up the streams to eat their eggs, and whatever else they can find in rivers/streams.  If they are finding it too hard to get into the creeks and finding food in the lake, I would have to think many would be fine sticking around in the lake.  I have read that a certain percentage of natural steelhead in the Pacific, stay in the streams and never hit the ocean, since they are just fine eating what they find and able to buck the biological tendency.  I would have to think the same for the other way around, granted, the biological response to spawn would likely be different.  If they learn this one year, it might be something they end up doing annually?  With them schooling, playing follow the leader, wouldn't this possibly have many of them doing it?  Maybe focused on emerald shiners and contributing to the lower perch numbers?  It isn't like there are many salmon for them to follow up the creeks, which I'd imagine a few might have figured out?  Maybe the few additional salmon 30 years ago, had more followers?  
 
As a side note - I have been reading a good bit on Atlantic striped bass, and their "reduced numbers".  Which really just means, lower catch rates by guys on the beaches.  The guys in the boats 1-2 miles out, say that they are as thick as they have ever seen.  There is ample food source there, so no reason to follow their biological alarm and head into the surf zone to feed on the near shore forage.  The shore bound guys blame it on the beach replenishment projects, which makes sense to me as well.  There is also a certain percentage of fish that enjoy a location and remain as "resident populations".  Completely different species, but I found it rather interesting the similarities (of anglers complaining, and reminiscing of the good old days)...  Both species being anadromous might really be their only similarity though.
 
No scientific data to back any of this.  But I am usually lucky enough to catch a few smaller ones, regardless if epic run or "no one is catching anything"...  I find myself fishing striped bass more, even though twice the commute, but work has me within range much more often.  Nowhere near the crowds, but usually not catching as many.
 
 
 

 McKean Hole LOL...
  
 

I believe the numbers of stocked smolt are a fraction of the mid 90s early 200s 

Hey, everyone pays for their license, so gotta keep every 14 inch steelhead they catch and take pics at poor richards. 
 
Sure a slow start this year due to the water conditions. But its been a decline of what it used to be. Still go up, to get out and enjoy the views and catch a few. But in reality, they need to start looking at adjusting limits of daily fish with the weak returns we are getting.
 
 

Steelhead have been stocked in the Lake Erie system since the late 1800s, mainly to support recreational fisheries (Crawford 2001). Populations became established in the tributaries during the early decades of the 1900s (MacCrimmon 1977), and then declined in the 1940s and 1950s due to lack of stocking, sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) predation, and degradation of water quality (Berst and Wainio 1967; Kustich and Kustich 1999). Populations rebounded in the 1970s, mainly due to a renewed stocking effort that began in 1975 (Crawford 2001). By 1989, 1.1 million yearling steelhead were being stocked lakewide (Figure 1) (Coldwater Task Group 2012). While the 1990s brought significant ecosystem changes to Lake Erie primarily due to the invasion of the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha), steelhead fisheries continued to thrive while Pacific salmon fisheries declined. Eventually Pacific salmon stocking was phased out and many stocking programs were redirected to steelhead. By the early 1990s, annual steelhead stocking had increased to over 1.7 million yearlings. Lakewide stocking levels of steelhead have since stabilized and range from 1.75 to 2.0 million yearlings annually.
 

When September is dryer and warmer, as it has been the last 4-5 years, and when the lake doesn't cool to the mid to lower 60's till October like it has the last 4-5 years . . 
 
October is the new September.
 
November is the new October.
 
December is the new November.
 
At least on Elk, and a couple of smaller cricks I'm pretty familiar with.  
 
In those past 4-5 years, fishing for my sons and I has been very, very good from mid-November through ice up.  OK before mid November, but not great.  Kinda like early October used to be.  Crowds are a little lighter by then, but not significantly.  Less ropin' and smokin' would probably help, but it ain't the only issue.    
 
It was really good yesterday for the few hours we got to fish, and we left a hot bite to go sit in the woods to poke deer with a sharp thing.  Shouldda stayed on the hot bite.