Helpful Replyrain rain rain

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steelie85
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2013/10/18 14:36:55 (permalink)

rain rain rain

Coming up the 20-25th how bad do you think the rain will make the creeks? I'm taking my dad up for his birthday hoping to hook him into some steelhead. Now if the creeks are too high can we still fish the mouths? Or am I just worrying about rain for nothing. The creeks seem to be recovering quickly the water tables are low and this rain is helping the deficit. Look like a total of .80 of an inch between sunday and wed.
-Joe
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/18 15:28:37 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby genieman77 2013/10/18 23:53:10
Can't really tell till the rain comes.  Looking at the forecast for next week, certainly some potential for blowouts, but also potential to keep flows up and nice.  Leaves are coming down, grass is dying - will take less rain in the coming weeks to make a blowout, and larger tribs will drop more slowly.  Will pay to take a look at the Angler Maps on fisherie.com - when Elk and Nut are blowouts smaller cricks can be good. 
 
Mouths will likely be fishable with a south wind, but it looks like a pretty steady blow from the north and west next week with colder temps.  That could mess up fishing the mouths.
 
 
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steelie85
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/18 15:32:28 (permalink)
Would I be better off fishing the east side tribs? Also mught be a dumb question but I've never thought much of it. If there is a blow out the further up the creek the lower the water should be right? Like upper elk. I remember back in 2011 it was that way it was high at uncle johns then we went up to follys end and it was just slightly colored and slightly lower.
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/18 15:53:07 (permalink)
Well, like I said above, you won't really know where you'll be better off till you see how much rain there is.  And the smaller cricks I mentioned ain't all confined to the east side.  Check the maps and read the stream descriptions.  Steelhead can also be caught off of many public access points in the bay when cricks are blown and waves are pounding the lake front. 
 
Yes, upper reaches of Elk and Walnut clear first, generally. 
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steelie85
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/18 16:08:36 (permalink)
Thank you I downloaded all the maps and will try it out. Hope to meet ya on the creeks.
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fishingood
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/18 16:25:11 (permalink)
Hoping to head up next weekend myself, if all the heavy rain they're calling for happens by, say Wednesday, it may be an incredible weekend.
 
But, if you are looking for tribs that will clear quick, you may be better off fishing the east side tribs, as they seem to clear pretty quickly. I've legitimately been at 16 mile in the early morning, and had it blown out, and with no rain the rest of the day, went and fished somewhere else, and came back in the evening, and the stream was clear enough to see fish. On the other hand, the larger tribs will take more rain to get up, and be slower to come down.
 
These are the guildelines I've used for the tribs, for estimating the time before they will be clear after a blowout, assuming no additional rainfall. This is for a typical average rainstorm that would cause an average blowout, not for days of torrential downpour, or flooding:
 
Smaller tribs (most east side tribs excluding 20 mile)= 6-24 hours
 
Medium tribs (20 mile, Walnut)= 24-48 hours
 
Elk (largest trib)= around 3 days.
 
Again THESE ARE CETERIS PARIBUS ESTIMATES, and they can and will vary, depending on multiple factors (amount of rain, winds, materials and makeup of nearby land, leaves and other materials clogging mouth, etc.), and of course I'm gonna get some moron on here later telling me "oh you're so wrong, this one time it poured and (stream name) was blown out, and it was clear again in a different amount of time than you said." This is from my own experience, and perspective, I'm not a steelhead expert, but I've fished in Erie enough to know what I'm doing, and as an out of towner who only makes 5-10 trips up each year, I've learned to take what conditions I'm given when I can get up there, and each I enjoy the trip (about 2.5-3 hours one way). I've had low and clear flows where I've caught fish, low and clear flows where the fish avoided my fly like the plague, high and muddy flows where I've caught fish, and high and muddy flows in no end in sight downpours, where I came up, fished for an hour or two, had no luck, got back in my car and canceled my hotel room, and went home the same day.
 
 
 
 

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steelie85
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/18 16:34:56 (permalink)
Well I'm hoping it won't pour just showers to get color. .75" of rain the last two days made it spike and now its about normal from what I know. So who knows ill leave it to God.
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steel whisperer
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/18 19:41:57 (permalink)
fishingood
This is for a typical average rainstorm that would cause an average blowout, not for days of torrential downpour, or flooding:
 
Smaller tribs (most east side tribs excluding 20 mile)= 6-24 hours
 
Medium tribs (20 mile, Walnut)= 24-48 hours
 
Elk (largest trib)= around 3 days.
 
I would say your close but cut them in half  for average rain fall that gets a solid flow.
smaller tribs clear in 6-12 hours
walnut-20 mile clear in 8-24 hours
Elk clears in 18-24 hours sometimes sooner.
conneaut clears in 24-36 hours sometimes longer.
Again this is average like we just got the last few days.
 
You dont need to see the fish to catch em. learn the runs/holes and fish tendencies. In high muddy water fish where you normally walk....you would be surpised
 
 




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workcanwait....
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/18 22:22:09 (permalink)
Upper part of creeks drop first......
Use bright colored baits leave the minnow bucket if it is stained.
Its gonna be wet soggy cool weather bring layers............
Here comes the rut folks picking the bow up, resting the fishing poles for awhile!
 
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Loopy
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/19 00:02:28 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby FiveMilePete 2013/10/19 10:25:58
Usually Elk clears in a few hours.  The eastside streams take the longest.  I've seen 4 Mile take up to 3 days to clear after just a mild rain.  And because of the huge amounts of rain this fall so far, it's been almost impossible to fish on a consistent basis.

<---  The Holy Trinity
#10
fisherofmen376
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/19 09:30:53 (permalink)
lol^

"Come, follow me," Jesus said, "and I will make you fishers of men."
Matthew 4:19
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PONDBEARSHWILLY
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/19 10:01:29 (permalink)
Loopy,you got it bass ackwards.

ERIC J. {AKA} BONES
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spazzer
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/19 12:15:32 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby FiveMilePete 2013/10/19 16:53:08
I've been told by many that this Loopy knows all and tells all. However, I can concur with him that the eastside streams are slower to come down. It may have something to do with the moon phases....
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KJH807
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/19 12:40:12 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby FiveMilePete 2013/10/19 16:53:19
East side is lower elevation and gets stronger tides, which helps the estuaries hold water longer



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steelie85
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/19 13:31:24 (permalink)
So its not bigfoot who determines water levels.........
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fisherofmen376
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/19 13:53:42 (permalink)
Bigfoot does not determine water levels, Chuck Norris does.  

"Come, follow me," Jesus said, "and I will make you fishers of men."
Matthew 4:19
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dano
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/19 17:47:55 (permalink)
fisherofmen376
Bigfoot does not determine water levels, Chuck Norris does.  





In a cage match, I think Norris kicks it's hairy arse. 
Back on topic, Walnut is your best bet as it can fish well when muddy just because of the sheer number of fish on the lower end. And, as long as there is'nt a big leaf flush. 
Fish big and bright stuff. 
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steelie85
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/19 19:46:11 (permalink)
Thanks Dano
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spazzer
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/19 20:04:13 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby FiveMilePete 2013/10/20 20:57:40
East side is blown as I look out my window
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chrisrowboat
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/19 21:04:52 (permalink)
The big leaf flush is scheduled to occur this coming weekend on all the tribs. I been told the tankers have been lined up for weeks to supply the water. Water has been low and clear because of the pumps are working overtime to fill them.

Proud to have been a FOT/
I've been out fishing.
Clean your gear/
http://www.fish.state.pa.us/cleanyourgear.htm



#20
World Famous
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/20 12:34:02 (permalink)
I fished this morning. The streams were at flood stage. The fishing was good. I didnt catch anything but I dont catch any when the water is nice....WF...thought this was my year.
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lost sage rod sectio
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/20 13:04:23 (permalink)
Stand by the epic run is just around the corner!!!!!!!!
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muskiemeat
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/20 15:08:06 (permalink)
Blownnn AHHHHHT!

Fish to live...live to fish


One Burbot, One Scotch, One Beerg
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FiveMilePete
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/20 20:58:42 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby FiveMilePete 2013/10/20 22:34:27
spazzer
East side is blown as I look out my window


They were all blown out on the east side today.  They should fish well by Wed. or Thursday.
 
Should fish OK right away if using flatfish with multiple trebles.
post edited by FiveMilePete - 2013/10/21 21:21:56
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spazzer
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/20 21:37:41 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby FiveMilePete 2013/10/20 22:34:10
FiveMilePete
spazzer
East side is blown as I look out my window


They were all blown out on the east side today.  They should fish well by Wed. or Thursday.


I'm hoping Thursday but realistically it'll be Friday til it's prime. Unless more rain, as fore casted, arises. They may all be in NY before we PA guys ever get to cast a line.
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joebaker79
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/20 22:46:13 (permalink)
Have any of you actually fished the east side?  Try tomorrow morning.  Yes, please wait till Wednesday or Thursday!!!
post edited by joebaker79 - 2013/10/20 22:50:13
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fisherofmen376
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/20 23:13:08 (permalink)
Joebaker, I was thinkin the same thing!

"Come, follow me," Jesus said, "and I will make you fishers of men."
Matthew 4:19
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pensfan1
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/21 00:26:10 (permalink)
Yinz both beat me to it....jus sayin..
#28
Riverbum
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/21 09:37:58 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby FiveMilePete 2013/10/21 21:23:39
joebaker79
Have any of you actually fished the east side?  Try tomorrow morning.  Yes, please wait till Wednesday or Thursday!!!


some people just dont get it...

"Some go to church and think about fishing, others go fishing and think about God."~by Tony Blake~

"Time is but the stream I go a-fishing in. Its thin current slides away, but eternity remains."
~by Henry David Thoreau~





#29
SteelSlayer77
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Re: rain rain rain 2013/10/21 12:13:42 (permalink)
Riverbum
joebaker79
Have any of you actually fished the east side?  Try tomorrow morning.  Yes, please wait till Wednesday or Thursday!!!

some people just dont get it...



Yeah I don't understand the fishing report posted from the guy who drove up Sunday and said; "Made the long drive for nothing. Weatherman got it wrong again."   I wanted to make the trip yesterday, but it was clearly evident by the Walnut water gauge on this site that Sunday would be totally blown out all day.
 
To simplify it for anyone who hasn't figure it out yet:  100cfs and rising on the Walnut gauge is pretty much blown out,  100cfs and dropping should make for some good water somewhere.  Of course it's not always that simple and the east side might be fishable when Walnut is over 100cfs, but stick to that rule if you have a couple hour drive or longer and you won't waste a trip on blown out streams. 
 
In the case of Sunday (Oct. 20th) just looking at the Walnut gauge below you can easily see that the streams would be totally blown out all day, that the ones with faster run off would fish well today, and Elk will probably be better this evening or tomorrow morning.
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
#30
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