I was at mid river but will keep that in mind next time. Good luck

Can anyone speak to the numbers at the hatchery.... sounding a bit grim from what I'm hearing. Some buds went up last week and the reports were less than optimistic.

Two Bob I wanted to wake you up when I arrived...lol!!!

As we know and as lucky mentioned, this all started coming to light in the 90's, and if you remember, many old timers (businesses, guides and charters) threw in the towel by the early 2000's. 1998 had a remarkable early run in august but was dismal once the "season" hit. 99 was horrible but I do remember articles being published that fall saying it was the "year of the coho". My early predictions this year were fueled from the average numbers of early fish I've seen in the past. But there's where I was skewed. For instance, 2012 had nothing showing in the river til late Monday on labor day, so early fish showing really should not be a basis for the season to come. Lucky, your info is greatly appreciated. We all know the state of the "fishery" and its surroundings. And one can only think that the less fish there are, the more elusive they are, leaving it more expensive to "come and catch one"... I think the end of an era is upon us and get ready for something new. Many folks already bagged it and more even talking about bagging it now...

I'm hoping we're not seeing total collapse beginning.  But it might take a serious reduction to allow the bait to recover.  We'll definitely have a better sense in the next two weeks.
 
Might take me a couple of days to get through from home, but I'll check with my contact who was at the hatchery and said they thought things were on track, that was a couple of weeks ago when the kings were just coming in, before the "pipe got plugged."

Hey guys I'm back until I go to see the doc today or the head starts pounding , which ever comes first and thanks for all the well wishes.
Yea 2b, I really didn't want to wake a sleeping bear at midnight, lol..
As for some observations and discussions, they have all been great..
yes Db, Many charters cashed it in in the mid-late 90's but from an observation point , especially being on the lake this year, I think so many new guys have filled the gap since then. Now I'm hearing that "generation" saying the same thing..
Here is something that a LONG time guy is sprouting, and yes , L-13 is correct-NO data means just an opinion..
In his opinion he is stating there is an over abundance of alewives BUT, they are adult alewives .. There is a lack of juvenile alewives and his theory is due to the extreme winters and lack of zoo plankton to support the juvenile in a healthy state so the adults are cannibalizing the juvenile alewives and emeralds ..
This is causing the food chain to be so out of balance that the young salmon and steelhead are lacking that Year of young alewives and having a hard time growing strong and causing the thiamine deficiency ..
So in his response, there are not enough salmon (numbers) to control the adult alewives from cannibalizing the Y.O.U alewives and emeralds..
Somehow this makes sense.. 
Now the kicker as L-13 says and knows is, what would happen if there were MORE salmon.. Would they totally decimate the alewives to a point that the entire lake would collapse and now you have so many salmon and not enough forage base ? That too also seems logical ..
 
Really in the end , what I think from reading and trying to gather information is that the 2 extreme winters have played the major roll in all of this.. One can only speculate that it's just a down turn in a continuous cycle of ups and downs that may take a few years to recover.. Will it recover ? Well, that is the hope and I think the Lake Management knows or at least understands this and has already taken steps by stocking Native bloaters and herring..
The other kicker is the invasive:
If the lake is truly getting "cleaner" and the zoo plankton is depleting from invasive, I would think (and I'm not to smart) the addition of lake trout is to be a control. .  I don't know how they fare on the Great Lake but I can say on the CLEAN Pristine water of Lake George or Ostego Lake they are bottom dwellers.. We think nothing of jigging in 100-200 fow  and usually mark/catch them right on the bottom, something which I think the goby inhabit.
Yes they will streak off the bottom and chase a lure right up to the hole (see it all the time) only to refuse and go right back to the bottom.. So in the case of the great lake Ontario , If they have a solid bottom dwelling forage, they should get fat and lazy just feeding on the bottom without having to chase the alewives .. Again just a thought..
 
Good luck to all that head out and have a Great day fellas, treat every one like it may be the last:
Peace & Tuna
 
P.S.
I talked to Fichy yesterday and he said the weekend fishing was far worse then we had on thurs & fri, he was casting shooting heads into the lake off the creek mouth in an effort for something different..
 
    

This
 
Really in the end , what I think from reading and trying to gather information is that the 2 extreme winters have played the major roll in all of this.. One can only speculate that it's just a down turn in a continuous cycle of ups and downs that may take a few years to recover.. Will it recover ?
 
Cyclical downturn at a time when the alwives are in bad condition turning a normal slight lessening in numbers into a drastic drop.
 
The sky isn't falling.
A couple of slow years and good managing and it all comes back on track.
 
I (being a conspiracy buff) think that like the oil companies gouging for a while making everybody cheer for sub $3.00 gas we may be seeing this used by the fisheries peeps as a way to lessen stocking because they know the natural repo is enough to throw of the forage- prey ratio and using it as cover from the lake guys rants.
Long live the king of run on sentences.
 
Of course you get what you pay for and my opinion is free.
It ain't worth two bob so to speak.
 
 

I don't think there is an overabundance of alewife, and I applaud the biologist for their management of that precarious balance.  Other people have said there is more bait out there than the trawls indicate.  But the papers that were sent out last year clearly indicated that alewife, in response to stress, produce thiaminase, the enzyme that interferes with the salmonid's (trout, salmon, char) ability to get or use thiamin, or Vitamin B.   Because of nutrient reduction that has cleaned up the lake, and the effects of mussels, there is less phytoplankton, or alewife chow, out there, and so the alewife are smaller, less robust and less protein.  This equals a stress from the bottom of the food chain.  Because the alewife are under predation from a  LOT of predators, there is stress from the top of the food chain, and the populations expend more energy, and therefore don't grow as much.  This is another stress, so they are already producing enough thiaminase to interfere with lake trout reproduction, and Atlantics, too.  Alewife populations have also been documented to suffer in harsher weather conditions, which would potentially reduce the size of the population and also impede growth and this is further stress. All these stresses, and especially the whammy of the winters the eastern basin has seen for two years, combine to produce a baitfish that is smaller, and is loaded with a chemical that is poison to the predator, generated in proportion to all these different  stresses.  On top of all that, the predator, which needs x pounds of prey in y amount of time to survive, and x+ c prey to grow, now has to eat more individual preyfish, and therefore get an added dose of the thiaminase.  I think as a result of the increased concentrations of thiaminase , which is continually interfering with the fish's getting vitamin B, and the depletion of any stores the fish has in maintaining metabolic function , the returning fish are dying out in the lake, running out of gas, so to speak.  Its not that there is either too much prey or too little, but the additional stress of the winters has resulted in alewife that do not meet the nutritional needs of a lot of the fish, and actually, over time, poison them.  But people were marking large schools of the rivers a few weeks ago, or so reported, and now they are not there, at least up east, so I'm inclined to think the mortality is recent, the deficiency in vitamin B was not there in the spring, but is now becoming deadly to many of the fish.  As in any population, some are more affected, and some less, so there are some fish getting back, but not the numbers that should be there based on stocking numbers, natural reproduction, and past performance of the run  Or they are just REALLY late!  

I don't know that they saw that in the hachery, but that would fit with the "not enough nutrients for normal development", or "not enough vitamin B for normal development"  thinking.  I agree with you about a 3 day blitz, maybe the change from eater to spawner is taking a lot longer due to low B levels, and once they manage to finish, you'll see the blitz, and , yes, 90% will take the detour to Pa and NJ and other parts less wet from the ball park area.  Last year 2bob and I started (he started without me in September) in mid October, I got a day trip and then we did an overnighter, and I think another day trip, and we found healthy chrome and coho full of fire.  I do recall seeing some of the swirly behavior the last day we fished, but attributed it to poor release upstream , where three drift boats and about 20 waders were pummeling an island undercut with lots of action.  The dieoff  got reported the week after we returned. 
 
I've also thought about why some of what I am thinking may be wrong.  If there were a large dieoff of matures in the lake, there should be at least some washup of carcasses on the beaches, and this would get reported.  Same in the estuary.  Has anyone been down in the estuary in a boat?  I would think if there is little traffic in there now a lot of fish could die unnoticed, but at least some would have to show up on shore and be noticeable.
 
May have to wait until the SOL again this year to get the clearer picture.   

And a little more fat to chew on,
while I know nothing about the Canadian runs, I have read that they have been completed and over for around 2 weeks now.. Only rotting carcasses in the rivers up there..

Fish machine that's exactly what I heard two days ago in regards to the deep water

Don't drink the water!!! Lol bb2010 :)

Remember also, 2 record breaking winters in a row could have whatever bulk of salmon there is a few weeks behind. The next 3 weeks should really reveal what we're gonna get or not get numbers wise

My impression of the Steel issue was that many died soon after arrival last year and some  remaining  lost the mites and their health improved. Therefore I don't blame anything in the SR or that would have been unlikely.
The thing that surprised me this season was- though numbers were awful- I only saw ONE dead Salmon after jumping around for a couple of days and ONE other large fish that was completely rotted- likely  a salmon or decent Ho.
Saw NO dead Steel. Their numbers are still very low  but last season dead were already showing due to whatever illness. Saw no swirling either and that was   noticeable last season.
All this can be muted due to low fish numbers however  waters were low and clear and issues would  have been noticeable.
The Hos being ,caught, seemed to fight well without  lethargic issues - Even the ones moving were NOT wasting time  and the few released took off quickly and were not seen to roll over after.
Actually was surprised as I was prepared to see some sick and dead fishes.
There are a few ways to look at this one being fishes present were the ones that had lived through two hard winters and had risen beyond whatever killed the rest off so they came in healthy. Another is that they had wintered in areas other than the East end of the lake.
The two lone Kings I saw were moving along and appeared  in great shape. Didn't even try for them- just watched.
They run when they must despite temps or flow and its time.  Actually kinda past time for it to start.
Whatever the issue - it stinks.
Even if a real nice push or run happens its late and the system is NOT what it was.
Its  mid October now and we are still waiting for IT. Heck--it should be roaring by now- the temps are right and the flow is right and those have not always been present and it still happened. Those huge runs of a coupe of years ago were in low warm waters - early too.
Sad.
 

No worries, I have my thoughts and from here on will mostly keep them to myself..
Pretty much the only thing that will bring me back to the river fishing is when Jack is in town (no dis-respect to anyone) , or maybe if I get super bored between hunting and waiting for ice to form and possibly after the ice melts and the stripers come..  River fishing for salmon will only be of fond memories..
It's been a long ride for me and at some point the ride no longer becomes fun, that's what I'm experiencing .. It's not just because of the lack of fish, heck I didn't even fish last season so it's not a 2 year beat down. It's just that I'm burned out on that river and it's a great river indeed.
Everyone that still enjoys the river, I do envy you folks and wish you all the best of times and many smiles along the way..
Peace & Tuna
 

It's funny you mention the color of your salmon because I was thinking the same thing when I saw the pic a few weeks back.

Well it doesn't matter to me what happens the rest of this year as from whatI'm learning about my recovery from the stroke They will be pulling the
plug on my driving privilege so that ends it for me for awhile.