Eveland

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Esox_Hunter
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/17 13:07:41 (permalink)
This is what you are talking about, correct?

In Pennsylvania, and across the nation, our hunting population appears to be getting older. Yes, of
course, we're all getting older; what this means is that the average age of hunters is older than it
used to be. Participants in this survey averaged 47 years of age, most falling into the 45-54 age
class. Survey data from the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service estimates that, in 2001, the majority of PA
hunters fell into the 35-44 age class, and in 1996 the 35-44 age class also ranked largest, but with
11 percent more hunters than in 2001.


You do realize 'this survey' refers to

YOU MAY HAVE BEEN one of more than 900 hunters to receive a phone call last May as part of a
survey conducted for the Game Commission, by Responsive Management, to help us learn about
your participation in, motivation for and satisfaction with, hunting here.
Hunters were selected randomly from a list of those who purchased 2000-01 licenses. The survey
took 20 minutes and consisted of more than 100 questions such as


So how did you come up with your statement that the average age of a PA hunter is 10 years younger than the national average?
#61
deerfly
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/17 13:55:25 (permalink)
As I said before, there are two sets of data . The US F&WS says the majority of PA hunters were in the 35 to 44 age class while the PGC data shows the majority were in the 45-54 age class. The F&WS data also shows no change from 1996 to 2001 which indicates we were recruiting enough junior hunters to replace the older hunters that quit.
#62
Esox_Hunter
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/17 14:17:42 (permalink)
Wow, I am at a loss for words here.

First of all, the statement "the majority of hunters are in the 35-44 age range" indicates absolutely nothing about a single average age.  You can not just pick the middle number and claim it as an average age, common sense should tell you that with the given data that is not a mathematically valid interpretation. 

Second of all, the PGC data includes data from a whopping 900 respondents out of roughly 1 million licenses sold.  That equates to a sample size of roughly .09%.  With your vast knowledge of mathematics; do you feel that is an adequate sample size to gain not only valid data, but to have confidence that the average age quoted is representative of the entire sample?  Do you know what a confidence interval is?

We know nothing about the statistical parameters used to obtain the USF&W data.  But I am certain that is the reason that any discrepancy lies between the two sets of data.


post edited by Esox_Hunter - 2011/05/17 14:26:34
#63
spoonchucker
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/17 14:36:41 (permalink)
Why would they rely on a survey? They have the birthdate of each license holder. With the miracle of the computer, one should easily be able to arrive at a totally accurate mean, median, and average age. Along with numerous other demographic data.

Get Informed, Get Involved, And Make A Difference.

Step Up, or Step Aside


The next time you say "Somebody should do something", remember that YOU are somebody.

GL
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deerfly
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/17 15:40:44 (permalink)
Second of all, the PGC data includes data from a whopping 900 respondents out of roughly 1 million licenses sold.  That equates to a sample size of roughly .09%.  With your vast knowledge of mathematics; do you feel that is an adequate sample size to gain not only valid data, but to have confidence that the average age quoted is representative of the entire sample?  Do you know what a confidence interval is?


It doesn't matter whether I think the sample size is adequate or not. What matters is the PGC is using that data to justify the decrease in license sales. What matters is that the PGC published two conflicting sets of data for the age of the majority of the PA hunters without explaining why there is such a large disparity.
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Esox_Hunter
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/17 15:58:41 (permalink)
Round and round we go....

I guess if it supports your argument, there is no reason to scrutinize the methodology of the survey, which in this case is clearly flawed?

Sorry, your argument is busted and your interpretation of the data is clearly misguided, as usual.


And Spoon - Stop with the logical solutions!  There is absolutely no place here for independent thoughts!!  
#66
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/17 16:04:41 (permalink)
And Spoon - Stop with the logical solutions! There is absolutely no place here for independent thoughts!!


Your forgetting they outsource all that kind of work and it is very expensive according to the PGC. That's the reason they have given for many such issues as we have discussed in the past.
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deerfly
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/17 16:28:32 (permalink)
I guess if it supports your argument, there is no reason to scrutinize the methodology of the survey, which in this case is clearly flawed?


If the data was available to scrutinize both sets of data I would be happy to do that. But, since it isn't available both you and I would just be guessing.

Sorry, your argument is busted and your interpretation of the data is clearly misguided, as usual


That may be your opinion, but as usual you are wrong. No one has explained why we lost 200+K deer hunters from 2000 to 2008 while general license sales only decreased by 112K. No one has explained why the number of bear hunters increased from 104K in 2000 to 145K in 2008. Could it be the the bear population was increasing instead of decreasing like the deer?
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Esox_Hunter
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/17 16:52:23 (permalink)
ORIGINAL: deerfly

I guess if it supports your argument, there is no reason to scrutinize the methodology of the survey, which in this case is clearly flawed?


If the data was available to scrutinize both sets of data I would be happy to do that. But, since it isn't available both you and I would just be guessing.


The side of the data you were vigorously defending was very available.  I have yet again proved you are incapable of interpreting data of any kind.  You took the available data(regardless of whether it was valid) and abused the snot out of it to make it support your argument.  And you wonder why no one on here will ever take you seriously...


Sorry, your argument is busted and your interpretation of the data is clearly misguided, as usual


That may be your opinion, but as usual you are wrong. No one has explained why we lost 200+K deer hunters from 2000 to 2008 while general license sales only decreased by 112K. No one has explained why the number of bear hunters increased from 104K in 2000 to 145K in 2008. Could it be the the bear population was increasing instead of decreasing like the deer?


Really??  What does this have to do with "PA hunters being 10 years younger than the national average"?  Nice deflection champ. 

What exactly am I wrong about?   

FWIW, I am the one who mentioned the line in bold in the first place.  And I asked you to answer that question for me, what gives?


#69
deerfly
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/17 17:42:06 (permalink)
The side of the data you were vigorously defending was very available.


Wrong again!! We do not have enough info on either the PGC survey data or the F&WS data to evaluate the validity of either set of data. However ,the PGC data from the DMP clearly shows a correlation between the 200K decrease in deer hunters and HR.
FWIW, I am the one who mentioned the line in bold in the first place. And I asked you to answer that question for me, what gives?



The answer is obvious. Deer hunters quit due to HR but continued to hunt for other species that also require the purchase of a general license.
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bingsbaits
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/17 20:56:44 (permalink)

"There is a pleasure in Angling that no one knows but the Angler himself". WB
 
 


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DarDys
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/18 09:27:00 (permalink)
ORIGINAL: spoonchucker

Why would they rely on a survey? They have the birthdate of each license holder. With the miracle of the computer, one should easily be able to arrive at a totally accurate mean, median, and average age. Along with numerous other demographic data.

 
While songbird identification is an important part of the PGC training process, unfortunately it appears that Excel is not.

The poster formally known as Duncsdad

Everything I say can be fully substantiated by my own opinion.
#72
World Famous
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/18 13:30:54 (permalink)
They don't have the funding, at this time, to do the averages. Also, the info would take months to be prepared for the public....WF
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Ironhed
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/18 16:04:23 (permalink)
However ,the PGC data from the DMP clearly shows a correlation between the 200K decrease in deer hunters and HR.




+



=



Ironhed

Blacktop Charters
#74
deerfly
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/18 17:49:26 (permalink)
Here is a quote from the QDMA response.


PAQDMA also closely examined Mr. Eveland’s calculation of the needed herd size to sustain the harvest amount stated by PGC. The density of deer is calculated by numbers of deer over a given area and therefore under the same deer numbers, the smaller area defined the higher density of deer. Mr. Eveland only included forest land and agriculture in his calculations. He did not include abandoned and reclaimed mine lands, grasslands and shrub lands not in agriculture reverted fields; all of which hold many deer. Using a detailed Pennsylvania State University analysis on suitable deer habitat which eliminates all areas not used by deer such as roads, developed areas, and water determined that habitat suitable for deer at 42,710 square miles or an amount of 7,195 square miles missing from Mr. Eveland’s calculations. That is more than 4.5 million acres Mr. Eveland did not consider in his density calculations which greatly inflates the deer densities in his report


I wonder if QDMA realizes that the PGC assigns no habitat value to anything other than forested habitat? Kip Adams was shocked when I showed him the PGC deer density goals.
but he still supports the PGC plan.
#75
RSB
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/18 17:52:25 (permalink)
Actually until the last two years with the PALS system there was no computer data on hunters so there was no logical way to recover any of the hunter age or most other hunter information or data. In the future, with the recovery of the PALS data, you will likely see more on how the various hunter profiles compare and change from year to year.
 R.S. Bodenhorn
#76
deerfly
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/18 18:31:36 (permalink)
Of course there was a logical way to recover the data on the hunters age. They had carbon copies of the info provided by every hunter when they purchased a license. They could have randomly picked 100K or more tags and easily calculated the average age of PA hunters and it would have been a lot less expensive than a phone survey. The simple fact is that that they didn't really care about the age of our hunters as long as they could sell 1M doe tags. But , now that they have reduced the number of deer hunters by over 200K they are now concerned about the age of our hunters.
#77
bluntman
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/18 19:48:58 (permalink)
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deerfly
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/18 20:43:05 (permalink)
Your self portrait would be much more appealing if you turned around and smiled a little. Otherwise you come across as just another horses butt that has nothing of value to contribute to this discussion.
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bluntman
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/18 22:37:55 (permalink)
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/19 06:35:22 (permalink)
Another constructive response to the discussion.
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deerfly
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/23 17:39:56 (permalink)
Here is the link to Eveland's response to the PGC's rebuttal of his claims.
http://blogs.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/sports/rod-a-gun-club/27407-deer-war-statement
#82
Dr. Trout
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/23 21:01:43 (permalink)
well I tried reading it..

right off he mentions the ACSL
but I contiune until this.. he's talking about after an Alt lecture...

I summarized by stating to the senator that the PGC was planning to systematically reduce the deer herd, hunter harvest success would dwindle, sportsmen would become increasingly disgruntled,



Then I started laughing my axe off... holy crap... he's no better than me.. I came away from my 1st Alt lecture with the exact same summary !!!!!

so I just clicked the "back button"... no sense in wasting more of my time reading that crap..
#83
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/23 21:19:40 (permalink)
Once again you prove you are not willing (or perhaps able) to read anything that might counter your belief the PGC can do no wrong. And this from the man who tries to lecture us about keeping an open mind. Beautiful.
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Dr. Trout
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/23 21:33:30 (permalink)
I just posted I like to read and listen to folks I think or feel know what they are talking about.. this guy obviously (IMHO) is just looking for his 15 mintues in the spotlight..

did you come away from alt's lectures with any differnet thoughts.. are you the expert he claims to be because of it -- and use that as #1 reason we should believe him ..
post edited by Dr. Trout - 2011/05/23 21:34:25
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bingsbaits
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/24 19:35:29 (permalink)
I beleive Alt did exactly what he was hired to do and did a dam good job of that..

"There is a pleasure in Angling that no one knows but the Angler himself". WB
 
 


#86
deerfly
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/24 20:50:50 (permalink)
I just posted I like to read and listen to folks I think or feel know what they are talking about.. this guy obviously (IMHO) is just looking for his 15 mintues in the spotlight..


Do you think the PGC knew what they were talking about when they told us 2G could support 15 DPSM and still have adequate regeneration? Do you believe them now when they tell us regeneration in 2G is still poor at 8 DPSM?

Did you believe the PGC when they said 5C could only support 6 DPSM in 2002,even though the harvest in 5C was 10.8 DPSM in 2003 and 15 DPSM in 2010?

Was the PGC just as irresponsible as Eveland?
#87
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/24 22:40:27 (permalink)
ORIGINAL: bingsbaits

I beleive Alt did exactly what he was hired to do and did a dam good job of that..

 
You're gonna get some rising pulses and keyboard pounding for that one buddy.  

My reports and advice are for everyone to enjoy, not just the paying customers.
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DarDys
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/25 06:54:18 (permalink)
ORIGINAL: bingsbaits

I beleive Alt did exactly what he was hired to do and did a dam good job of that..

 
Actually, he did and he didn't.
 
He sold the plan as hired to do.
 
But he also was to present himself as the "chosen one" to lead the new merged DCNR and PGC -- PGC expereince/PhD Forester.  He fell just a little short of that goal when the merger didn't happen.
 
Same result for PA hunters, not so much for him (less retirement ebcause he had to check out at his last salary and not that of an Executive Director).

The poster formally known as Duncsdad

Everything I say can be fully substantiated by my own opinion.
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RE: Eveland 2011/05/25 07:03:06 (permalink)
Bings is correct in his post. Alt was hired to sell herd reduction by any means possible and who can argue that he did exactly that. It doesn't mean what he did was necessay or correct or was done for the right reasons. It doesn't mean that he didn't mislead the public in the process. His job was to sell herd reduction. The herd was reduced and Alt left town and the PGC had a fall guy to blame when the s--t hit the fan.
It's no different than what happens in any business or industry when the corporate leaders want to make major unpopular changes. they hire a guy to put the policies in place, he does the dirty work, he leaves town, the corporate leaders blame him but say what is done is done and we all need to forget it and move on.
The mistake the PGC made in this case was in assuming the folks affected would swallow the change after a short while. It appears there is more people, both hunters and non-hunters who are willing to put up with a little unconvience to have a few deer around.
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