tull66 
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/05 19:52:43
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^^^^^Doc hunting for free gas!
Absolute power corrupts absolutely. The closer we adhere to the Holy Bible and the US Constitution (as it was written) the closer we get to the model that made America great. The great American experiment worked, human nature just got in the way.
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DanesDad
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/05 23:28:23
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Sales are declining as much because of changes in society (probably moreso) than as a result of lower game populations. IMO.
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deerfly
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/06 07:55:40
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ORIGINAL: scaremypsu
ORIGINAL: deerfly
ORIGINAL: dpms
Unfortunately it appears that Mr. Street has left some vital info out on license sales from last year.
Resident junior - 38,000
Resident Junior combo - 48,400
Mentored youth permit - 28,500
Grand total of 114,900
Take the mentored youth permit out of it and we still have 86,400.Â
If in 2010 we had over 114K hunters below the age of 17 that expressed an interest in hunting, if we retained half of those hunters to become adult license holders the number of adult hunters would be increasing instead of decreasing. So, it appears that junior hunters are quitting at a faster rate than adult hunters. IMHO the main reason for that is the lack of seeing legal game at a rate that makes hunting enjoyable.
If 86,400 Junior licenses were equally distributed among 12-15 year old junior hunters 21600 would be in each age class. If 50 % (10800) were retained and they purchased an adult licence in 2011, how would that equate to an increase in adult hunting license sales and how does that equate to junior hunters quitting at a faster rate?
You make a valid point. By retaining only 50% of the junior hunters adult license sales would not increase, but the sales would have decreased at a much slower rate than they did from 1999-2008. That means that we are recruiting a lot less than 50% of the junior hunters to the adult hunting class.
post edited by deerfly - 2011/05/06 12:36:12
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retired guy
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/06 10:52:09
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Wont get involved with the argument about numbers and herds in PA but will addres the 'stakeholder' thing as it may pertain to lawmaking and directions of goals and objectives. As a politician I wrote on a post a few weeks or months ago about how Boards and Commisions were commonly made up. As stated then they generally involved persons with an 'interest' in the issue and generally reflected the Political majority in makeup. NO politician in charge of a comitee ( most generally from the majority party) is going to let the 'other party' make any rules or get any credit for anything-much less give an opportunity for 'them' to change a policy or direction. Therefore all boards and Commisions are inherently political in nature despite whatever they may claim otherwise. The 'stakeholder' thing can be a friend or foe-watch it like a hawk..... for example, when talking about fish and game policy you have your Forest folks involved along with the fish and game biologists and outdorsmen , right? WELL how bout the Friends of Animals and the Audobon Society and Greenpeace, they are all involved with fish and game and therefore, in the eyes of many, are 'stakeholders' too. So too is that young Urban politically involved mother who has never actually seen a Deer but just knows they are beautiful and 'how could anyone ever kill one'. Ya wont find the president or well recognized faces getting to the boards but you may well find 'kindred spirits' moving in more that you know. Sorry but its that same old Urban vs. Rural thing. City folks think different about our sports and with their high populations they control the political structure. Believe me when I tell ya anybody killing stuff with a weapon is looked DOWN on by many many folks out there today.--back to paragraph two---- Its not just the lack of a particular game animal that hurts us all but the ongoing list of rules and regulations combined (in many areas) with access issues that hurt our numbers. If you doubt this just pickup a Hunting Handbook from any other State and try and figure out what you can and cant do to hunt any particular species. Be sure and read the entire book cause some laws are not on the pages you my think they should be on. It is confusing and often quite difficult to understand to the point where many have to call someone and find out whats legal and what isnt. No wonder so many have simply moved on. A nice time afield has been turned into a legal quagmire. Here in CT you HAD BETTER carry a fishing book and know the name and location of the place you are fishing. We have several different regulations on trout size and harvest numbers and even season dates depending on where you are. Even the same stream can change regulations depending on where you are fishing it. It gets NUTS and some simply choose to opt out.
post edited by retired guy - 2011/05/06 12:52:15
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scaremypsu
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/06 13:11:50
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ORIGINAL: deerfly
ORIGINAL: scaremypsu
ORIGINAL: deerfly
ORIGINAL: dpms
Unfortunately it appears that Mr. Street has left some vital info out on license sales from last year.
Resident junior - 38,000
Resident Junior combo - 48,400
Mentored youth permit - 28,500
Grand total of 114,900
Take the mentored youth permit out of it and we still have 86,400.
If in 2010 we had over 114K hunters below the age of 17 that expressed an interest in hunting, if we retained half of those hunters to become adult license holders the number of adult hunters would be increasing instead of decreasing. So, it appears that junior hunters are quitting at a faster rate than adult hunters. IMHO the main reason for that is the lack of seeing legal game at a rate that makes hunting enjoyable.
If 86,400 Junior licenses were equally distributed among 12-15 year old junior hunters 21600 would be in each age class. If 50 % (10800) were retained and they purchased an adult license in 2011, how would that equate to an increase in adult hunting license sales and how does that equate to junior hunters quitting at a faster rate?
You make a valid point. By retaining only 50% of the junior hunters adult license sales would not increase, but the sales would have decreased at a much slower rate than they did from 1999-2008. That means that we are recruiting a lot less than 50% of the junior hunters to the senior hunting class.
Or perhaps we are losing adult license holders faster than the juniors are replacing them, which is more likely. There is absolutely no data that supports the claim <50 percent of 16 year old hunters purchase an adult license the following year.
post edited by scaremypsu - 2011/05/06 13:17:40
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retired guy
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/06 14:33:11
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As was earlier said the 'baby boomers' like me are dwindling--- hey - in regard to my stuff bout 'stakeholders'- The Govts ex Green job Czar is now joined up with an international group trying to get "human rights" for plants and trees. It is said they are trying to 'reach out' and get more excuses for 'environmental' lawsuits on Nature issues. Guess where we hunters stand-that guy was a Presidential appointee.
post edited by retired guy - 2011/05/06 14:53:03
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deerfly
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/06 16:01:11
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Or perhaps we are losing adult license holders faster than the juniors are replacing them, which is more likely. If that were true and 17 yr.olds were replacing hunters in their 60s and 70s ,wouldn't the average age of our hunters be decreasing significantly?
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scaremypsu
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/06 17:09:22
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ORIGINAL: deerfly
Or perhaps we are losing adult license holders faster than the juniors are replacing them, which is more likely.
If that were true and 17 yr.olds were replacing hunters in their 60s and 70s ,wouldn't the average age of our hunters be decreasing significantly?
No, not necessarily, you are forgetting that everyone is aging. As a 16 year old turns 17, a 50 year old turns 51, 60 turns 61. The average age would stay similar over time unless a disproportionate number of people quit from a particular age class. Is there there data showing the change in average age of hunters in pa over time?
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deerfly
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/06 18:25:51
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Or perhaps we are losing adult license holders faster than the juniors are replacing them, which is more likely Do you have any data to support that claim? Senior license sales increased from 52,806 in 1999 to 107,772 in 2009, which indicates a significant percentage of adult hunters are continuing to hunt after they reach 65 . Have you calculated the number of junior hunters that have been recruited from 1999 to 2009? Remember, every hunters that was a junior hunter from 1999 to 2004 would be an adult hunter today if they chose to keep hunting.
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Dr. Trout
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/06 20:51:37
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Many of those junior hunters are now going to college and may have jobs now that would limit their hunting opportunities... easier to miss a day of school for 1st day of buck rather than skip work on a new job to go hunting ... one thing to watch over the next few years is how much the senior licenses sales grow.. with more and more "baby boomers" reaching 65 it should grow and grow.. my guess is it will not grow that much.. because .. more or at least as many will be hanging it up each year too... may off set each other... The sales grew recently because of the begining of baby boomers (like me) reaching 65...
post edited by Dr. Trout - 2011/05/06 20:57:49
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retired guy
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/06 21:22:52
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HEY HEY HEY whats this baloney bout senior hunters hanging it up-will get my free one in bout a year and a quarter an unless I'm dead there will be NO hanging it up- dont care if I can only get a hundred feet from the road and hafta hire somebody to do the draggin. Or maybe just sit there and fall asleep. Aint no movin ta Florida goin on here.
post edited by retired guy - 2011/05/06 21:24:43
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SilverKype
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/06 22:21:42
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I remember back a two decades ago or so, Dad and I ran into an old feller coming out of the woods. We got talking and he said he was 87. His buddy was still down in the hollow and he said he was 89 ! Dad asked them how they were gonna get a deer out if they shot one and the guy said " I'll be puttin' it on this here rope and drag it up !"
Not a super steep hollow but an impressive spirit none the less. I doubt I'll make it to 87.
My reports and advice are for everyone to enjoy, not just the paying customers.
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scaremypsu
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/07 08:57:28
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ORIGINAL: deerfly
Or perhaps we are losing adult license holders faster than the juniors are replacing them, which is more likely
Do you have any data to support that claim? Senior license sales increased from 52,806 in 1999 to 107,772 in 2009, which indicates a significant percentage of adult hunters are continuing to hunt after they reach 65 .
Have you calculated the number of junior hunters that have been recruited from 1999 to 2009? Remember, every hunters that was a junior hunter from 1999 to 2004 would be an adult hunter today if they chose to keep hunting.
Since the 90's junior numbers have decreased by 12% and overall license sales have been close to 30% would indicate something. The fact that senior numbers have increased only suggest that a large cohort of hunters are getting older and as Trout said it is probably going to increase as the baby boomers get older. However, it is no indication that a sig percentage of adult hunters are continuing to hunt after 65 as there is no information on the original number of hunters in the class. If there were 500 thousand it would only be 10 percent, 1 million would be 5 percent, 100 thousand 50 percent, who knows?
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SilverKype
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/07 11:16:17
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ORIGINAL: Dr. Trout
Many of those junior hunters are now going to college and may have jobs now that would limit their hunting opportunities...
I did not buy a hunting license my senior year of college. It just HAD to be because there were no deer. 
My reports and advice are for everyone to enjoy, not just the paying customers.
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wayne c
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/07 14:30:50
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It just HAD to be because there were no deer. Well, there you go. Its finally settled. Since SK didnt get a license one year and it wasnt due to lack of deer....therefore noone else has ever done so due to the failing deer programs effects either. lmao! 
post edited by wayne c - 2011/05/07 14:31:19
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deerfly
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/07 16:22:46
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Since the 90's junior numbers have decreased by 12% and overall license sales have been close to 30% would indicate something. Apparently you over looked the fact that junior license sales increased 6% from 1999 to 2004 while the herd was increasing. When the effects of HR became obvious, junior license sales decreased by 17 % from 2004 to 2009. BTW, just what do you think the numbers you posted would indicate? To me it indicates both adult and junior license sales decreased as a direct result of HR.
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scaremypsu
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/07 21:03:50
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Apparently you over looked the fact that junior license sales increased 6% from 1999 to 2004 while the herd was increasing. When the effects of HR became obvious, junior license sales decreased by 17 % from 2004 to 2009. what does that have to do with anything? If the license increased 6 % then fell 17% what is the net loss? 11-12% which is what I said for Junior hunters. We are disputing your original post which was "If in 2010 we had over 114K hunters below the age of 17 that expressed an interest in hunting, if we retained half of those hunters to become adult license holders the number of adult hunters would be increasing instead of decreasing. So, it appears that junior hunters are quitting at a faster rate than adult hunters. BTW, just what do you think the numbers you posted would indicate? To me it indicates both adult and junior license sales decreased as a direct result of HR. It indicates that adult license sales are decreasing faster than juniors. Why they are decreasing is a different matter and does not need addressed since most people already know what your opinion is.
post edited by scaremypsu - 2011/05/07 21:07:36
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deerfly
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/08 08:14:58
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ORIGINAL: scaremypsu
Apparently you over looked the fact that junior license sales increased 6% from 1999 to 2004 while the herd was increasing. When the effects of HR became obvious, junior license sales decreased by 17 % from 2004 to 2009.
what does that have to do with anything? If the license increased 6 % then fell 17% what is the net loss? 11-12% which is what I said for Junior hunters. We are disputing your original post which was
"If in 2010 we had over 114K hunters below the age of 17 that expressed an interest in hunting, if we retained half of those hunters to become adult license holders the number of adult hunters would be increasing instead of decreasing. So, it appears that junior hunters are quitting at a faster rate than adult hunters.
BTW, just what do you think the numbers you posted would indicate? To me it indicates both adult and junior license sales decreased as a direct result of HR.
It indicates that adult license sales are decreasing faster than juniors. Why they are decreasing is a different matter and does not need addressed since most people already know what your opinion is. Apparently you over looked the fact that junior license sales increased 6% from 1999 to 2004 while the herd was increasing. When the effects of HR became obvious, junior license sales decreased by 17 % from 2004 to 2009.
what does that have to do with anything? If the license increased 6 % then fell 17% what is the net loss? 11-12% which is what I said for Junior hunters. We are disputing your original post which was Apparently you thought it was significant that there was a 12 % net loss of jr. sales,while at the same time you chose to ignore the fact that junior license sales were increasing until 2004,while adult license sales were decreasing during the same period. The sudden reversal in the trend in jr. sales is a clear indication that the sales decreased due to HR,which is what the article was all about. It indicates that adult license sales are decreasing faster than juniors. Why they are decreasing is a different matter and does not need addressed since most people already know what your opinion is When you calculated the 30% decrease in adult sales , did you include the senior license sales? Here is an interesting quote from an 2005 article in the PGN It's interesting to note that Pennsylvania's ex-hunters seem more frustrated with a lack of game and
a lack of access (whether they're perceived or actual) than ex-hunters at a national level. Of the 23
Pennsylvania respondents identified as ex-hunters, 14 (60%) said that not enough game strongly or
moderately influenced their decision to stop hunting; 46 percent said the same about lack of access. Looks like the majority hunters that quit ,quit due to lack of game.
post edited by deerfly - 2011/05/08 17:00:28
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wayne c
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/08 18:23:02
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What deerfly, you mean MORE kids wouldnt be fighting each other for the opportunity to sit in the woods LONGER to see LESS? After reading some of Rosenberrys report & logic, i was thinking maybe we should start taking our youths to the worst deerless lands we can find, and if they do get lucky and see a deer, spook it so they dont get a shot. Apparently according to rosenberry odds of success are 100% meaningless to hunter retention and recruitment, so why even bother to teach them to strive for it? lol. It's interesting to note that Pennsylvania's ex-hunters seem more frustrated with a lack of game and
a lack of access (whether they're perceived or actual) than ex-hunters at a national level. Of the 23
Pennsylvania respondents identified as ex-hunters, 14 (60%) said that not enough game strongly or
moderately influenced their decision to stop hunting; 46 percent said the same about lack of access. Flies right in the face of rosenberrys "deer dont matter to hunter retention & recruitment" drivel posted on the pgc site. Then again, when ISNT there good hard facts and common sense to counter just about all of pgcs ridiculous propaganda these days?
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eyesandgillz
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/09 11:48:20
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Only bet I care to take is no matter what happens to the deer herd, license sales or the PGC from this day forward, deerfly and wayne will still be here beeotching and moaning and groaning. Anyone care to take that bet?
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Esox_Hunter
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/09 12:22:27
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What odds are you giving and what is the maximum bet?
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bluntman
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/09 12:26:26
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ORIGINAL: eyesandgillz
Only bet I care to take is no matter what happens to the deer herd, license sales or the PGC from this day forward, deerfly and wayne will still be here beeotching and moaning and groaning. Anyone care to take that bet?
Im thunking you might be correct
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thedrake
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/09 12:45:38
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ORIGINAL: eyesandgillz
Only bet I care to take is no matter what happens to the deer herd, license sales or the PGC from this day forward, deerfly and wayne will still be here beeotching and moaning and groaning. Anyone care to take that bet?
No doubt that will come true. No matter what the deer number or license sales turn out to be in the future there will be a couple of guys here who will do their best to discredit the PGC's numbers or anything else the PGC has to say. I truly believe that if the PGC made the statement "the sky is blue", those guys would say "no, it's purple!". The hunting forums have gone downhill since a couple guys in particular have shown up. Most threads get dragged into the deer wars argument time and time again, regardless of the fact that the same arguments have been rehashed hundreds of times on hundreds of threads. It was rare for any thread to get locked on the hunting boards until they showed up. Now, not so much.
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bingsbaits
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/09 13:47:43
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Guess that's all on the back of the Moderater.;
Why he lets this crap continue is a mystery to me.
Hunting boards are not even worth reading anymore, Bu11sh1t in my book..;.;
"There is a pleasure in Angling that no one knows but the Angler himself". WB
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spoonchucker
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/09 13:52:23
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The "deer wars" WILL continue. If we set a timetable for withdrawl, it will embolden the deer to just wait us out.
Get Informed, Get Involved, And Make A Difference. Step Up, or Step Aside The next time you say "Somebody should do something", remember that YOU are somebody. GL
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bingsbaits
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/09 14:05:06
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Wouldn't be any deer wars if DOC and R-BSr would quit fighting with the two whiners over minute differences in percentages of numbers that can't be changed by any dam one of us.;
"There is a pleasure in Angling that no one knows but the Angler himself". WB
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deerfly
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/09 16:27:46
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ORIGINAL: eyesandgillz
Only bet I care to take is no matter what happens to the deer herd, license sales or the PGC from this day forward, deerfly and wayne will still be here beeotching and moaning and groaning. Anyone care to take that bet?
How many hundreds of dollars are you willing to lose to get me off this MB? How many threads have you started, that you feel were ruined by Wayne or me? In the last 6 months ,how many of you PGC supporters started threads on this forum that were not about deer or deer habitat?
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wayne c
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/09 16:52:51
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"Only bet I care to take is no matter what happens to the deer herd, license sales or the PGC from this day forward, deerfly and wayne will still be here beeotching and moaning and groaning. Anyone care to take that bet? " Sure, but only if you have a way of finding out. Such as somehow being able to change the deer management direction, to PROVE it one way or the other... Then I'll gladly bet, and take all you own if youre willing to bet. Im not a nice guy and have no qualms about putting you and any other whiners who'd like to ante' up, out in the street. lol.  Of course, you are banking on the fact that NOTHING is gonna change unless it means things further REGRESSING with the miserably failed deer management plan, at least for the near foreseeable future, so you'd never have to back that bet. I never complained throughout my hunting career about the pgc or any other states management where id hunted. Not until years into the failed environmentalist deer program. ONce the direction became clear and i got "educated" more on these issue. Didnt complain once about management for the first 2 and a half decades or so of my hunting career. Even through times when this unit didnt have "tons" of deer like we did in the late 90's early 2000's. Least i didnt clearly see an environut agenda in place and attempts to totally fubar the deer herd. If a responsible direction were taken tomorrow, i wouldnt speak badly about deer management for the next 25. But i will bet that YOU and a couple others wont quit kissing pgc backside no matter what. Since youve clearly done so through good times and bad of deer management. And i would bet a hefty sum that you wont stop doing damage control and whining every time someone voices a legit complaint about the gameless commission.
post edited by wayne c - 2011/05/09 17:44:43
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wayne c
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/09 16:59:11
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Talk about whiners? lmao. I think some need to take a look in the mirror. We have some who voice legit complaints about legit problems and others who simply whine for no reason other than their "side" of issues are losing arguments and looking extremely foolish in the process, and the only way to end it is to cry for someone to intervene. Might funny how the real "whiners" are screwing up this thread and are the only ones "off topic". Wouldn't be any deer wars if DOC and R-BSr would quit fighting with the two whiners Since when did you and "gills" start arguing with doc and rsb over minute differences in deer numbers? "Hunting boards are not even worth reading anymore, Bu11sh1t in my book..;.;" And yet here you are....Still reading....still replying. And most likely will continue to even moresoe than if these threads DIDNT exist. In fact, there probably wouldnt be many if ANY posts here if it werent for a few threads such as this during this time of year. Turkey season in, but then again.... there is a turkey hunting forum. I was a "caual reader" of this message board for probably a year and a half to two years prior to becoming a member. Though it was primarily fishing threads that i was interested in, because there was seldom ever anything even posted down in these "hunting" threads. I also find it downright hilarious that no matter when i come over to this site, there are a few names that appear ENDLESSLY hovering up at the top of this thread ever since it was started.... And surprise surprise, its usually some of those very same who speak the most against these very topics. Go figure! lmao.  So i guess the only question that begs to be asked is...wheres that "WAAAA-mbulance" when you need it?
post edited by wayne c - 2011/05/09 18:45:54
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deerfly
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RE: Would You Take This Bet?
2011/05/09 17:58:06
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ere is another interesting quote from the PGN article. Most of you (61%) are hunting small game less. For those who aren't hunting small game as much
as they used to, the main reasons are lack of game (39%), lack of time (21%) and age or health
related issues (14%). It's interesting to note that survey results indicate that hunters who have never
hunted small game are more likely to become inactive or ex-hunters. So, once again , the lack of game is the main reason hunters are quitting.
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