Would You Take This Bet?

Would you care to make a bet? by John C. Street

Within ten years we’ll be purchasing our hunting (and, most likely, our fishing) licenses from the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources.

Do you think that’s crazy?

Would you care to make a bet?

Before you answer those questions, please consider:

As recently as forty years ago, Junior and Senior Resident license sales were approximately 1.2 million.

By 1998, these two categories were down to a little over 91,000.

Last year (the 2009-2010 season), according to information taken from the Pennsylvania Game Commission’s web site, Junior and Senior license sales were down to 701, 539.

Preliminary projections for 2010-2011 are expected to come in somewhere between 650,000 and 675,000.

And here’s the worst part. From the 1998-1999 season to the 2009-2010 season, Junior Resident license sales alone fell from 98,233 to 38,203.

Whether this decline in license sales is a result of the controversial deer management program or a reflection of demographic and population trends is impossible to prove.

Certainly, the “Baby Boomer” generation – a vast preponderance of license buyers – is aging out of the equation at an accelerating rate. But how to account for the precipitous (nearly 60%) decline in Junior Resident license sales in just ten years?

Given this documented decline, it would be logical to assume the Pennsylvania Game Commission would be solicitous of its remaining “customers.”

This, however, is not the case.

Despite quantifiable evidence that the guiding mantra – “Healthy forests, healthy deer” – behind their management plan is built on bogus science (neither the deer nor the forests, according to the agency’s own published research, were ever “unhealthy”), the program managers have persisted in staying the course.

But now it has come to light that they’ve been fudging the figures on the “Harvest Report” (see, “An Independent Assessment of the Pennsylvania Game Commission’s Estimated Annual Deer Harvest 2000-2010” at www.acsl-pa.org).

And how do they justify these fudgy figures?

Why, in the name of “Biodiversity,” that highfalutin’ term bandied about the Environmental Conflict Industry (in this case, the National Audubon Society) to rationalize their participation in the quest for a New World Order.

Then, to add insult to injury, they insinuate (see, “Myths and Legends of the Whitetail,” PENNSYLVANIA GAME NEWS, April 2011) that “sportsmen” support this buffoonery, just pay no attention to those nabobs over there at the Unified Sportsmen of Pennsylvania or those nattering naysayers down there at the Allegheny County Sportsmen’s League.

Besides, deer hunters aren’t the only “stakeholders” in the equation, never-you-mind that they’re the stakeholders who’ve been paying the bills for over 100 years.

But what about that $1.7 billion industry that’s grown up around this sport? Oh well, that’s just small potatoes. Pennsylvania’s economy is so robust we don’t really need those jobs.

And besides, as any member of the Tourism Industry will tell you, people would rather come here to see our deer than to shoot them.

So, I predict that within ten years (more likely, five) we’ll be buying our hunting (and, most likely, our fishing) licenses from the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources.

Of course, if the members of the House Game and Fisheries Committee would take their responsibilities seriously … or the outdoor media (and its writers) would stop being enablers for this travesty …

Ah, shoot, who am I kidding?

So, anyway, would you care to make a bet?

ORIGINAL: dpms

Unfortunately it appears that Mr. Street has left some vital info out on license sales from last year.

Resident junior - 38,000
Resident Junior combo - 48,400
Mentored youth permit - 28,500
Grand total of 114,900

Take the mentored youth permit out of it and we still have 86,400. 

ORIGINAL: tull66

it doesn't change the point he was making which is hunting license sales are going down hill fast.

ORIGINAL: Dr. Trout

with the baby boomers leaving the hunting sports something will have to be done to control game populations.

ORIGINAL: dpms

ORIGINAL: tull66

There's plenty of deceit and spin goin' 'round these parts.
1971 total license sales = 1.2 million
2010 total license sales = 700K

Who's spinning those numbers?

ORIGINAL: SilverKype


dpms did not do any spinning. He was quoting Streets misrepresentation of the data which was youth sales. You decided to take it down the total sales path which is different.

ORIGINAL: tull66

It's like "why don't kids play outside anymore?". Things are changing, none for the better.

"While I agree with Streets premise that herd reduction is largely responsible for the recent decline in license sales . but Street did a poor job of presenting his case and getting his facts straight."

ORIGINAL: deerfly

ORIGINAL: dpms

Unfortunately it appears that Mr. Street has left some vital info out on license sales from last year.

Resident junior - 38,000
Resident Junior combo - 48,400
Mentored youth permit - 28,500
Grand total of 114,900

Take the mentored youth permit out of it and we still have 86,400. 

If in 2010 we had over 114K hunters below the age of 17 that expressed an interest in hunting, if we retained half of those hunters to become adult license holders the number of adult hunters would be increasing instead of decreasing. So, it appears that junior hunters are quitting at a faster rate than adult hunters. IMHO the main reason for that is the lack of seeing legal game at a rate that makes hunting enjoyable.