LockedAR/HR Poll...

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thedrake
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 11:34:18 (permalink)

ORIGINAL: DarDys

Now that all of this deer nonsense is out of the way, I can get back at it with the pointers.  (Someone tried to talk me into getting the flintlock out of mothballs, but I am getting far too old for those frustrations.)



With all the deer nonsense out of the way, maybe you can dust off the Berkheimer, for some winter trout. Although, I know you may have a hard time forcing yourself to fish underneath. I won't tell anyone if you catch a sucker. (except silverkype)
#181
S-10
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 11:42:49 (permalink)
You have been kind of quiet about the deer you put folks on this year Doc. How did your season go? Was the crossgun worth it?
#182
smokey4sure
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 12:26:38 (permalink)
1. Yes

2. No
#183
DarDys
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 12:30:55 (permalink)
ORIGINAL: thedrake


ORIGINAL: DarDys

Now that all of this deer nonsense is out of the way, I can get back at it with the pointers.  (Someone tried to talk me into getting the flintlock out of mothballs, but I am getting far too old for those frustrations.)



With all the deer nonsense out of the way, maybe you can dust off the Berkheimer, for some winter trout. Although, I know you may have a hard time forcing yourself to fish underneath. I won't tell anyone if you catch a sucker. (except silverkype)


 
You just want give me a brutal beating like you did at the One Fly and the day before.  The bruises are still healing.
 
Don't forget, You, Silver, and I are going brid hunting some day around Christmas.  I will extract my revenge then.  I won't tell anyone if you guys miss.
 
Winter trout?  Now there's an idea.  As soon as it get's over 50 degrees, I'm there.

The poster formally known as Duncsdad

Everything I say can be fully substantiated by my own opinion.
#184
DarDys
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 12:42:05 (permalink)
what I have read and have heard was = only 5% of the "COLLARED fawns" in that study were killed ????????
 
Doc,
 
Its called extrapolation -- a small segment of the population, are used to conduct an experiment, and the results of that experiment are then used in percentage proportions to make presumptions about the population as a whole.  As an example, if some one wanted to know how many people smoked and it is impossible to study all 330 million people in the U.S., they would conduct a study of a cross section of the population, say 5000 people and find out what the results are.  If 500 of the 5000 smoked, that would put the percentage at 10 percent.  Extrapolating that data, it would be presummed that 10% of all american's smoke (I am making up these numers as an example -- I have no idea what there actual ones are).  105 of 330 million equals 33 million.  So from that data, it is estimated that 33 million people in the U.S. smoke.
 
So, in this experiment, if the collared fawns are the sample population, and 5% got shot, that would mean that 95% did not.  Extrapolating those nmbers to the general population of fawns gets the numbers that are in the post you are questioning.
 
Since those numbers point to about 3 million deer in PA, that means a couple of things happened -- 1) there are 3 million deer in PA or 2) the study was flawed in some manner -- too few samples; not represnetative of the population general; the percentages applied to inaccurate general population numbers; not all shot deer were counted as such; etc.
 
Because it is doubtful that there are 3 million deer in PA, I would tend to go with the flawed study. 
 
 

The poster formally known as Duncsdad

Everything I say can be fully substantiated by my own opinion.
#185
deerfly
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 12:54:27 (permalink)

ORIGINAL: Dr. Trout

interesting...


There was an article in the June 2010 issue that used the fawn survival study as a reference and concluded that only 5% of fawns are harvested



don't know what article that is referring to --- BUT ---




what I have read and have heard was = only 5% of the "COLLARED fawns" in that study were killed ????????


The article was,"Are There Any Deer Left", and the author tried to use the fawn and doe mortality studies to show that hunters were harvesting only a small percentage of the antlerless deer ,in another blatant attempt to mislead and deceive the hunters.

Here is a direct quote from the article,

" In stark contrast to the relatively high mature buck harvest rates,less than 5% of fawns are harvested,while older does are harvested at rates between 15 and 20%."

Note, there was no reference to a specific area of the state ,although the author did indicate the results of the collared deer studies in various WMUs.
#186
Dr. Trout
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 12:54:53 (permalink)
I would not call it flawed... it was what it was... and everyone can take from it what they want

I'd say it is proof we do not shoot as many of the deer as we think.. And even more important... hunters do not find or see most of the available deer...

#1.. the fawns were from only two areas.. not a cross section of the state... that to me is a big thing.... and an area with very few hunters... not the ideal study group/area in my opinion..



BT... Is the article in the Game News for June 2010 or what ????
post edited by Dr. Trout - 2010/12/13 13:04:17

DR. TROUT'S OUTDOORWORLD MESSAGE BOARD


#187
deerfly
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 13:03:23 (permalink)
I would not call it flawed... it was what it was... and everyone can take from it what they want


You may not call it flawed ,but the author of the article admitted it was flawed when I questioned him about it. The article was a blatant attempt to convince hunters that we are not over harvesting the antlerless deer even though the 2008 harvest decreased the herd in 19 of 22 WMUs. The article was nothing more than a PGC propaganda piece and they should be ashamed of how they manipulated the data to deceive the hunters.
#188
SilverKype
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 13:12:52 (permalink)

ORIGINAL: DarDys

ORIGINAL: thedrake


ORIGINAL: DarDys

Now that all of this deer nonsense is out of the way, I can get back at it with the pointers.  (Someone tried to talk me into getting the flintlock out of mothballs, but I am getting far too old for those frustrations.)



With all the deer nonsense out of the way, maybe you can dust off the Berkheimer, for some winter trout. Although, I know you may have a hard time forcing yourself to fish underneath. I won't tell anyone if you catch a sucker. (except silverkype)



You just want give me a brutal beating like you did at the One Fly and the day before.  The bruises are still healing.

Don't forget, You, Silver, and I are going brid hunting some day around Christmas.  I will extract my revenge then.  I won't tell anyone if you guys miss.

Winter trout?  Now there's an idea.  As soon as it get's over 50 degrees, I'm there.


I am off December 23 - January 2. A nice work perk. Just putting together baby stuff and flintlock hunting. Pick a date.. I will be there. Not only will I miss, but let me reiterate, I have not shot a shotgun since age 14. I would encourage yinz to stay behind me and remind me every 10 or so steps to shoot only straight ahead.

My reports and advice are for everyone to enjoy, not just the paying customers.
#189
thedrake
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 13:45:27 (permalink)

ORIGINAL: DarDys

ORIGINAL: thedrake


ORIGINAL: DarDys

Now that all of this deer nonsense is out of the way, I can get back at it with the pointers.  (Someone tried to talk me into getting the flintlock out of mothballs, but I am getting far too old for those frustrations.)



With all the deer nonsense out of the way, maybe you can dust off the Berkheimer, for some winter trout. Although, I know you may have a hard time forcing yourself to fish underneath. I won't tell anyone if you catch a sucker. (except silverkype)



You just want give me a brutal beating like you did at the One Fly and the day before.  The bruises are still healing.

Don't forget, You, Silver, and I are going brid hunting some day around Christmas.  I will extract my revenge then.  I won't tell anyone if you guys miss.

Winter trout?  Now there's an idea.  As soon as it get's over 50 degrees, I'm there.


I'm in too. Just let me know the date.

...and yes, I will shoot a sucker. Took the words right outta your mouths, didn't I?

#190
Ironhed
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 14:00:42 (permalink)
The article was a blatant attempt to convince hunters that we are not over harvesting the antlerless deer even though the 2008 harvest decreased the herd in 19 of 22 WMUs.


So, what you are saying is, that we are over harvesting in some areas but in another thread you post a hunky-dory story about a kid in your hunting party that harvested a doe in the "deer-deprived" area that you hunt?
<scratching head>

And don't make it about the kid, please. 
Congrats to the youngster!

Ironhed

Blacktop Charters
#191
deerfly
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 14:50:10 (permalink)
The six adults in our group haven't harvested an antlerless deer for at least the last 5 years but I told my niece she could take any legal deer that she would be proud to harvest. Furthermore, the doe she got had been hit by another hunter the first week and had a broken front leg so we all agreed to take it if we got the chance.
#192
DarDys
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 14:57:05 (permalink)
ORIGINAL: Dr. Trout

I would not call it flawed... it was what it was... and everyone can take from it what they want

I'd say it is proof we do not shoot as many of the deer as we think.. And even more important... hunters do not find or see most of the available deer...

#1.. the fawns were from only two areas.. not a cross section of the state... that to me is a big thing.... and an area with very few hunters... not the ideal study group/area in my opinion..



BT... Is the article in the Game News for June 2010 or what ????

 
If the study was not the ideal study group/area -- then, by definition, the study was flawed.
 
If you don't beleive the stufy was flawed, then you beleive it to be accruate, in which case, by extrapolation, we have 3 million deer in PA.
 
Which is it Doc, a flawed study by the PGC or we have 3 million deer?  One answer has to be correct, the other false.  You pick which one is which.

The poster formally known as Duncsdad

Everything I say can be fully substantiated by my own opinion.
#193
DarDys
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 14:58:59 (permalink)
ORIGINAL: thedrake


ORIGINAL: DarDys

ORIGINAL: thedrake


ORIGINAL: DarDys

Now that all of this deer nonsense is out of the way, I can get back at it with the pointers.  (Someone tried to talk me into getting the flintlock out of mothballs, but I am getting far too old for those frustrations.)



With all the deer nonsense out of the way, maybe you can dust off the Berkheimer, for some winter trout. Although, I know you may have a hard time forcing yourself to fish underneath. I won't tell anyone if you catch a sucker. (except silverkype)



You just want give me a brutal beating like you did at the One Fly and the day before.  The bruises are still healing.

Don't forget, You, Silver, and I are going brid hunting some day around Christmas.  I will extract my revenge then.  I won't tell anyone if you guys miss.

Winter trout?  Now there's an idea.  As soon as it get's over 50 degrees, I'm there.


I'm in too. Just let me know the date.

...and yes, I will shoot a sucker. Took the words right outta your mouths, didn't I?



 
I'll come up with a date this week.  Silver can use my Sporting clays gun.  It never misses.
 
There are no barrels (except shotgun) involved so there will be no shooting of suckers.

The poster formally known as Duncsdad

Everything I say can be fully substantiated by my own opinion.
#194
wayne c
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 15:00:33 (permalink)
"in which case, by extrapolation, we have 3 million deer in PA."

So much for Docs logic.

#195
S-10
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 15:55:27 (permalink)
Perhaps that's how Alt got the original BS estimate of 1,600,000. Naw, I saw him pull that number out of his magic hat. You have to remember the PGC has used three different population models since the start of AR/HR. They should get a number they like eventually.
#196
deerfly
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 16:21:39 (permalink)

ORIGINAL: DarDys

ORIGINAL: Dr. Trout

I would not call it flawed... it was what it was... and everyone can take from it what they want

I'd say it is proof we do not shoot as many of the deer as we think.. And even more important... hunters do not find or see most of the available deer...

#1.. the fawns were from only two areas.. not a cross section of the state... that to me is a big thing.... and an area with very few hunters... not the ideal study group/area in my opinion..



BT... Is the article in the Game News for June 2010 or what ????


If the study was not the ideal study group/area -- then, by definition, the study was flawed.

If you don't beleive the stufy was flawed, then you beleive it to be accruate, in which case, by extrapolation, we have 3 million deer in PA.

Which is it Doc, a flawed study by the PGC or we have 3 million deer?  One answer has to be correct, the other false.  You pick which one is which.


DarDys is right on the money!! Here is what the author had to say about the fawn harvest rates.
Thank you very much for your interest in my article, it is very refreshing to know that someone is actually reading what I write!

The <5% fawn harvest rate is a little misleading...

That rate was calculated from the only radiocollar data we have regarding fawn survival during the hunting season (2 years of data collected nearly 10 years ago). Because fawns were collared as neonates, and approximately 50% of those fawns died before the hunting season, there was a very low sample of "on-air" radiocollared fawns during the hunting season. Therefore, variance associated with those estimates was quite high (which I didn't include in the article and probably should have). The data I used were from Justin Vreeland's thesis, which can be obtained at the Penn State Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research website (http://sfr.psu.edu/research/pacfwru).

In retrospect, I should not have included that statement, but I wanted to be consistent regarding how harvest rates were calculated.

#197
RSB
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 16:33:20 (permalink)
ORIGINAL: deerfly

I would not call it flawed... it was what it was... and everyone can take from it what they want


You may not call it flawed ,but the author of the article admitted it was flawed when I questioned him about it. The article was a blatant attempt to convince hunters that we are not over harvesting the antlerless deer even though the 2008 harvest decreased the herd in 19 of 22 WMUs. The article was nothing more than a PGC propaganda piece and they should be ashamed of how they manipulated the data to deceive the hunters.


You might not like the results of the study or what they show about hunter harvests but there was nothing manipulated or flawed about the data. The data was simply the results of how many marked deer, in four separate study areas across the state, and what percentage of those marked, tracked and continuously monitored deer the hunters had harvested during the 2009 hunting seasons.
 
Here are the results of how many of those radio tracked deer the 2009 deer season hunters harvested in each of the four study areas.
 
Unit….% of does harvested……% yearling (1.5yr. old bucks)…….% 2.5 and older bucks
2D…………..21 %……………………..22 %……………………….62 %
2G……………8 %………………………8 %……………………….29 %
3C…………..22 %……………………..17 %……………………….12 % (low sample)
4B…………..17 %……………………..39 %……………………….49 %
 
It must be noted that in unit 3C the number of adult bucks in the sample, for 2009, was too low to be statistically valid for that one-year period though it will certainly be statistically valid information over the multiple years of the study.
 
All other units did have adequate samples of each age group to be statistically valid for that year. It will still need to be evaluated over multiple years before any definitive conclusions can be drawn concerning the affect hunters have on deer populations. But, it is pretty obvious that no sex or age group of deer were over harvested in any of the study areas during the 2009 deer season.
 
I will agree though that the fawn mortality study from the late 1990’s and early this century can’t be used for determining the hunter success rates on fawn deer.
 
R.S. Bodenhorn
post edited by RSB - 2010/12/13 16:38:22
#198
deerfly
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 17:00:15 (permalink)
Well let's see how accurate the data is when applied to 2G. In 2009 hunters harvested around 3,640 adult doe in 2G. If that harvested represented 8% of the adult preseason herd then there would have been 45,500 adult doe . If those doe produced 1.1 fawns/ doe there would have been around 50,050 fawns and with a 1:2 B/D ratio there would be around 22,750 buck, for a total PS population of 118,300 deer or 29 DPSM.
So do you still claim the study accurately reflected hunter harvest rates?
#199
S-10
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 17:19:30 (permalink)
Here are the results of how many of those radio tracked deer the 2009 deer season hunters harvested in each of the four study areas.


Is that the percentage of deer that were killed that were originally radio collared or the percentage of deer that were killed that were alive just prior to the start of deer season?
#200
RSB
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 17:19:33 (permalink)
ORIGINAL: deerfly

Well let's see how accurate the data is when applied to 2G. In 2009 hunters harvested around 3,640 adult doe in 2G. If that harvested represented 8% of the adult preseason herd then there would have been 45,500 adult doe . If those doe produced 1.1 fawns/ doe there would have been around 50,050 fawns and with a 1:2 B/D ratio there would be around 22,750 buck, for a total PS population of 118,300 deer or 29 DPSM.
So do you still claim the study accurately reflected hunter harvest rates?

 
To come up with an accurate estimate of the pre-season deer population you need to use fawn recruitment rates instead of the number of fawns produced. Studies indicate that only about 50% of the fawns in unit 2G survive to their first fall and even that is probably high for many years.
 
That would bring the pre-season population down closer to 20 – 23 deer per square mile for WMU 2G. I would say that is not only possible but also very likely from what I have seen and the other evidence suggests for my areas of the unit.
 
The Elk County volunteer survey teams counted 17.24 deer per square mile while doing their fall deer surveys this year. Since I am darn sure they didn’t come anywhere close to seeing all of the deer out there I most certainly believe there were more than 20 deer per square mile pre hunting season in the unit. I am sure there are areas of the unit with fewer deer and other areas of the unit with more deer than were seen in Elk County but I suspect what was seen in Elk County would be a pretty fair average of what there were across the unit.
 
R.S. Bodenhorn
#201
RSB
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 17:28:13 (permalink)
ORIGINAL: S-10

Here are the results of how many of those radio tracked deer the 2009 deer season hunters harvested in each of the four study areas.


Is that the percentage of deer that were killed that were originally radio collared or the percentage of deer that were killed that were alive just prior to the start of deer season?

 
That is the percentage of those still alive and being monitored through the 2009 deer seasons. The deer were being monitored before, during and after the hunting season. They use mortality collars that let those monitoring them know when one is dead or no longer moving for more that a few hours.
 
R.S. Bodenhorn
#202
World Famous
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 17:35:15 (permalink)
Looking at the numbers RSB posted, it shows no pattern at all in the percentages. More like random chaos. Obviously the amount of radio collared deer is small, in the study, to reflect the disparaging differences in the percentages. It would cause one to wonder why this study is being done and to show what? A far to small study group.If there is other reasons ,then this should not be used in any form to show survival rates as an actual interpolated number...WF
#203
deerfly
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 17:41:35 (permalink)
To come up with an accurate estimate of the pre-season deer population you need to use fawn recruitment rates instead of the number of fawns produced. Studies indicate that only about 50% of the fawns in unit 2G survive to their first fall and even that is probably high for many years.
 


The 1.1 fawns/ doe is the average number of fawns recruited per adult doe. It is not the number of fawns that are born in the spring.

If there were 20-23 DPSM in 2G then the harvests would not be keeping the herd stable. However,the PGC said the 2008 harvest reduced the herd in 2G by 40%, so once again you are obviously wrong.
#204
S-10
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 17:59:28 (permalink)
RSB A few days ago I asked you how many bucks made the Pa record book in 2000. Your numbers for the years you posted were apparently more up to date than mine as the numbers were higher. Would you post the numbers for 2000? Thanks
#205
Bull Lifter
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 18:10:03 (permalink)
the horse is dead.
#206
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 18:22:38 (permalink)
Not at all
#207
deerfly
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 18:36:17 (permalink)
When one horse dies their is always a new horse to take it's place and the beating goes on.
#208
RSB
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 23:37:13 (permalink)
ORIGINAL: deerfly

To come up with an accurate estimate of the pre-season deer population you need to use fawn recruitment rates instead of the number of fawns produced. Studies indicate that only about 50% of the fawns in unit 2G survive to their first fall and even that is probably high for many years.


The 1.1 fawns/ doe is the average number of fawns recruited per adult doe. It is not the number of fawns that are born in the spring.

If there were 20-23 DPSM in 2G then the harvests would not be keeping the herd stable. However,the PGC said the 2008 harvest reduced the herd in 2G by 40%, so once again you are obviously wrong.


You are once again full of bologna.
 
The following was taken from the 2009 annual report. 
 
Pennsylvania Game Commission (PGC) personnel examined 1,307 females during the 2009 pre-fawning season. Seven hundred and sixty-six were pregnant. Twenty percent of the fawns, and 89% of the adults were pregnant or lactating. Pregnant fawns averaged 1.18 embryos/female. Pregnant adults averaged 1.81 embryos/female. The average reproductive rates for pregnant and barren fawns and adults were 0.23 and 1.60 embryos/female, respectively. The average reproductive rate for all females was 1.01 embryos/doe (Table 1).
 
The annual report clearly states that statewide the number of fawns per doe was only 1.01. It is considerably lower than that in unit 2G. Combine that with the fact that the fawn mortality study showed fawn mortality at or above 50% in unit 2G and you end up with fawn recruitment of less than .50 fawns per doe just as I said.
 
I don’t believe the present harvests are keeping the population in 2G stable. The deer population currently appears to be increasing in unit 2G. I doubt that last year’s hunters harvested much more than 10% of the 2G deer population, based on the evidence of both the harvest data and the percent of marked deer harvested in the unit, which would put it right in line with the 20-23 preseason deer per square mile I estimated it to have been.  
 
R.S. Bodenhorn
post edited by RSB - 2010/12/13 23:38:37
#209
RSB
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RE: AR/HR Poll... 2010/12/13 23:40:49 (permalink)
ORIGINAL: S-10

RSB A few days ago I asked you how many bucks made the Pa record book in 2000. Your numbers for the years you posted were apparently more up to date than mine as the numbers were higher. Would you post the numbers for 2000? Thanks

 
I'll try to get to this question tomorrow when I have time to look up the data.
 
R.S. Bodenhorn
#210
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