pafisher
I'm on the SR now and there are fish in the river but they are spread out.The UFZ has not seen a good push but the LFZhas plenty and the lifters are lifting.I persom\nally managed to get 4-5 on and landed one.This morning I had a big zero,they did n't hit anything I threw at themI have no WI-FI where I'm staying so I'm in a McDonalds,which is a PAIN!

Well it seems the site is reporting accurate and not exploited numbers hooked
Some have said I'm bad luck when they post big numbers on the networks and I show up and we struggle . I struggled with salmon for 2 years now from the lake to the tiver .
Last trib season I fouled 3 salmon and caught none . The lake was better but this lake season was dismal . I'm not a numbers guy so it really makes no difference in the catch as long as the experience is a lasting memory .
I don't like heavy pressure , who does . With the water dropping , I can see me doing lots of walking or bank time .
I have given thoughts towards my lake adventures . Now those who have been on the water and seeing fish , what are your thoughts as what is there and what's left to come ?
Seen lots of fish on lake 3 weeks ago , less 2 weeks ago and recently from some Intel I talk to , they are out searching deep for trout and 2 year old salmon before they totally pull out in about 2 weeks.
Good luck

Rich--
Does that mean the Lake guys aren't seeing fish staging anymore - to the point of calling it  ??

Word I heard at the DEC meeting in Greece the other night is that the big blow a while back messed up the staging, and they have not been finding fish along the south shore.  The Mexico Bay area cleared as much as anywhere else, it was reported to be a 20 mile "carpet" of salmon on the bottom, but they went back deep or ran in response to the blow.  But it was also reported that they ran from deep water to the falls on the Genny on Tuesday (going down later to get a sense of the density.)  So it is hard to say how many are still out there.  Douglaston today is reporting that the three channels at the bottom end of the run were packed with fish last night, and DEC indicated Tuesday that they had made arrangements with the Canadians for eggs in case not enough hens reach the hatchery due to quantative harvest  as they run the gauntlet in the low water. 
 
It is already starting to get late for a lot of the lake guys, Saturday is the first  of October.
 

Sounds like last year- no decent upriver action till mid Oct then -over.
 Just  couple here or there most of the season.
IMHO my favored Nov. was pretty much a washout.
Makes a statement when the State is already making arrangements for eggs elsewhere.
Oh well- my 3 or 4 trip plans are down to one.
That said, its good to hear there seemed a lot in the lake- who knows what will happen.
 

The big "blow"happened in mid July which screwed up the thermocline and sent boats on a scramble . Some say it never re established and they ( boats ) were searching for temps . The staging occurred later then normal and when I was there , there was another " blow " that had 70 deg temps from surface to bottom in up to 80 fow ( where there were staging salmon ) . You could see lots of salmon right ON the bottom , out of petered temp. Did they run into the river ? Yes , many in that group did which is what we see now in the system .
My question is where are all the fish that are " claimed " to be out in the lake that " should be the next wave ? All I'm saying is IMO , they are not there , while the dec is saying they are our should be excuse as to why they are not

At the return rate Steve gave the other night, you would have about 15K to 20K adults total coming into the river.  Many of them don't even get through town however with the pressure from DSR up to 81.  If RJ's estimates of 300 per day for the last few weeks are accurate, it only takes 100 guys a day keeping limits to remove all the fish.  How busy have the cleaning stations been?  Today's reports indicate a strong movement into the lower river, and concentrations of fish are reported up to Trestle.  Fat Nancy and Whitaker's are both reporting what sounds to me like a pretty excellent run so far, and all reports still indicate that the estuary is also still full of fish.   
 
And yes the report was that prior to the later blow they were on the bottom from the OZ to SR, and they were gone when it calmed down.  The report for the Genny is that they did not come in and mill around the mouth (stage) at night as much as in past years, but things were a lot warmer this summer, so maybe they ripened up out in deeper water, and once the thermal barrier in the tribs broke (or breaks) up, they are running from deeper water right up to the barriers.  This is when we "normally" expect to see the runs kick off in the south shore tribs, and when I would expect to see the bulk of the run on the SR, Columbus Day weekend has been peak most years for as long as I remember.  So I'm not counting anything as MIA yet.  To quote Ron Berstein at Orleans Outdoors "Considering the previous hot summer I'd say we are weeks behind a "normal" year migration schedule, so things are just heating up with mostly downstream or Rivermouth action at this point."

I diss agree .
We cited previous harsh winters the past 2seasons .
The thermocline was well established last year and the previous , it was cold water higher in the column . The excuse as to why we couldn't find them on the lake was they were dispersed due to cooler water all over the column & wandering out of where they should be . Was the trib spawning what it shoulda been ?
The excuse I'm citing now is warmer temps down through the column .
Well , the lake temps have dropped , the fish are not there . Why ?
Do folks not remember the wild abandonment of " if you stock them , they will come " ?
With an estimated stocking of 5 million , " they came " did they not ? At lest I can recall stinking , rotting and obese salmon everywhere that it became a problem .
Now we can throw in the forage theory this season , again , due to 2 past harsh winters as to the future runs / balance . The current numbers being thrown out are 50/50 stock/ wild with somewhere around 6 million estimate . REALLY ?
People are from what I'm hearing are "hooking" fish . They are picking away at the fish by methods that resemble those of the 80's . Folks are not " catching " fish by methods we should be of today .
This is a problem .
If some are saying there is enough fish to support the " system " , changes need to be made to the " system " for those who wish to " catch " salmon .
Personally , I don't feel there is enough in numbers of fish or the estimated figures being used to support every aspect currently used to remove the fish from the system.
While I can support the theory of :
1: not enough forage to support the lake
Those also entering the spawning grounds into a trib fishery also need to be addressed

Thanks L-13 for taking the time to post the links , attend the meetings and share your thoughts . These are old dogs that need to take some blinders off and look at what's happening

Throw into the equation river running at 185 for a week...... not good. Things are rough I'm cancelling my next trip up next week struggled to make it through these 2 days just fishing the am and headed home warm shallow water not good for the fish either. I did see some Redding up today at least. If you have a trip planned don't set your sights to high

Crazy- now DSR reports heavy movement and one guy hooking 100 fish and catching 20.
Nothing out there- big run- state looking into eggs from afar-185
Am I the only one going NUTS ???? or is it just Columbus weekend in the the silly season ???
Gotta love it------
 

NYSDEC was as taken aback by the drop in discharge as anyone else, and took conservative measures to insure adequate eggs.  When half the Egg fishers on the East Coast refer to hen salmon and trout as "egg wagons", if you run the facility at the top of the river, and suddenly your source of eggs is exposed and in low flows with a crowd of yahoos descending, you find backup.  OR they could have closed the river, or parts of the river, but that didn't sit well last time either, did it.