Helpful ReplyHot!Coronavirus opinions

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r3g3
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/07 11:12:34 (permalink)
This is similar to the annual Flu- Many who dont get the shot get it and a few pass on.
Even some with the shot get it and many who dont get the shot dont get it.
 
Kinda think this will be with us for many years to come -if not forever -and that its path will be similar to that of the Flu.
An annual shot that likely will hold it off but not a full guarantee. 
 
Scientists and doctors opinions are all over the place with some being political rather than scientific-and often change.
Those liking one opinion or the other loudly harping the latest info that lines up with their own views- enough so it ALL is inconsequential and generally a waste of print to keep on regurgitating.
 
The only real news will be that of a medicine that eliminates the virus or make it less dramatic in its affect.
Till then its just BS and wayyyy tooo influenced by political views of those reporting.
post edited by r3g3 - 2020/08/07 11:17:07
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/07 17:05:35 (permalink)
snagr
MyWar
Where does the CDC say the infection mortality rate is .13 %? Or .3% ? Please post a link.



i posted a link to the c.d.c. estimates of 10x actual vs. confirmed positives and showed my math based on that estimate.
 
using different assumptions about how widespread infections are and different assumptions about how many deaths there really are can certainly get you to .6% or even 1%.  i never said those numbers weren't possible.  
 
here's an interesting graphic that takes into account all sorts of different assumptions and variables about the c.d.c. accounting methods and what's really going on.  
 

 
 
 
 




Here are the objective problems with way you are calculating the infected mortality rate:
 
(1) Your formula is way too simple for a sample size as large & diverse as the population of the entire US (328 million) because there is too much local variation in things like testing capacity, demographics, access to healthcare, etc... 
 
(2) The CDC statement you keep referring to was made nearly 6 weeks ago, and it may have been accurate for some parts of the country at that time, but you can't make that same assumption at this time. ALOT changes in 6 weeks. Testing capacity has increased substantially since then. If the CDC hasn't revised or updated that estimate, then you can't assume a 10x factor from 6 weeks ago is still accurate, at least not if you want any kind of accuracy in your calculation. 
 
(3) Here is a more recent article from July 21 that cites a study which used similar serological testing methods as the CDC and they got similar results. HOWEVER they found that actual cases ranged from 6 to 24 times the confirmed case count, but it varied considerably by region. So for example, when NYC had a high infection rate and low testing capacity, a 10:1 (or higher) ratio of actual to confirmed cases is likely. However, right now in Pittsburgh where infection was never really that widespread and testing capacity is more robust, a ratio of less than 10:1 is more likely. 
 
So consider that this analysis of the NYC outbreak (which I have linked several times) uses the exact same formula that you are using, yet they come up with 1.7% mortality rate, why? Because the ratio of actual to confirmed cases in NYC was probably even higher than 10:1. So you have to calculate the mortality rate locally using smaller sample sizes which take all of the regional variables into consideration (testing capacity, population demographics, etc...). Once you have those regional calculations completed you would need to do some kind of weighted average for the whole country, and you would need tons of data from cities all over the country to do it accurately and with any kind of confidence. 
 
The lowest credible infection mortality rates I have found are in the .5 - 1% range. When I cited .6% that was the low end of the spectrum, and I was being generous to your argument. It is admittedly not an easy number to calculate, and it is admittedly the subject of intense debate, even among experts (which we are not). And if you just want to convince a bunch of MAGA knuckleheads on a fishing forum, then go ahead and make up whatever numbers you want, just don't expect your bull5hit to hold up to objective criticism. 
 
Really tho this has all just been a distraction from my real objection to your posts which is that you are slinging a bunch of nonsense about a magical 20% herd immunity threshold that nobody has ANY evidence for. Would you care to comment any more on that? And also, maybe you could explain why your pushing the idea that hundreds of thousands of dead Americans, which is an UNPRECEDENTED loss of life, is just "hey man, nbd"?
 
CRAPPIE_SLAYER
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/07 22:39:33 (permalink)
So I'm wondering. Just curious how this all plays out with the numbers. Yesterday the governer of Ohio tests positive for Covid. Today another test confirms negative. Does this show up in the numbers game as a negative now, or is the first positive test etched in stone already???
BeenThereDoneThat.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/08 09:13:43 (permalink)
Say what??? 😲 Cuomo says "all" schools in NY can reopen........

Schumer agrees with POTUS, schools should reopen........

😱MG osh what.... 😨H what, could be going on........?


In other news........

More evidence being provided on the successful use of Hydroxychloroquine.

So much proof one should ask, why hasn't Dr Falsie and his left wing associates been promoting annnnnd assisting with "controlled" studies in the use of the drug.

Buttt noooo, the left just continues arguing against the use of hydroxychloroquine, based on a few "uncontrolled" studies.

When questioned regarding the drugs use, the answer from the left is the same "let's move on" 🤔

Welp, one would only have to wonder, how many Covid related deaths could have annnnnd "would have" been prevented had Dr Falsie and his left wing associates, not turned a deaf ear toward the drug.

What if, when first mentioned, Dr Falsie would have supported additional "controlled" testing?



BTW.... it is Dr Falsie who argues against the positive results we now hear, regarding the use of hydroxychloroquine because those results were not based on "controlled" studies.

Also too... search the internet and find an anti-America news network that promotes further "controlled" testing of a common drug, that's been in use for decades (as in 60+ years) by millions (as in millions) of users, who have experienced no reactions, cited by Dr Falsie, and his left wing associates, in preventing the use of hydroxychloroquine.

Keep in mind, the time being spent on "controlled studies" for a Covid vaccine yet to be found. Howeverrrr, hydroxychloroquine was tossed out over a few short "uncontrolled test".

You be the judge.
post edited by BeenThereDoneThat. - 2020/08/08 09:36:24

Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you will feed him for a life time. ~Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie (1837–1919)~
 
 
 
  Old fisherman never die; we just smell that way. 
 
snagr
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/08 10:12:02 (permalink)
🙈🙉🙊
r3g3
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/08 11:20:12 (permalink)
They have been using Hydroxy for decades - if not a century- in the tropical areas to control malaria. Even our troops used it extensively.
Now- because T said he thought it was OK they trot out all the naysayers saying its an unproven drug, not just for this plague but for all.
Pure politics at the expense of many who may well have needed it when there was little to nothing else available.
To the point that some states have said their Drs cant use it.
This is PURE politicizing of medicine and these same people want us to buy into govt  run medicine.
post edited by r3g3 - 2020/08/08 11:21:14
snagr
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/09 12:52:09 (permalink)
CRAPPIE_SLAYER
So I'm wondering. Just curious how this all plays out with the numbers. Yesterday the governer of Ohio tests positive for Covid. Today another test confirms negative. Does this show up in the numbers game as a negative now, or is the first positive test etched in stone already???



it's a head scratcher ain't it?  he actually tested positive and negative on the same day, about 10 hours apart, and has had subsequent negative tests.  which is good to hear for him and the people of ohio.  
 
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-tests-are-pretty-accurate-but-far-from-perfect-136671
 
here's a good article about the accuracy of testing.  nobody still seems to be quite sure how accurate all the different tests are, either in the u.s. or globally.  but the ramifications - personally and in relation to public health - of even a 1% rate of false positives or false negatives is staggering when you consider that the u.s. has conducted 65.7 million tests so far and this will  hit around 100 million sometime in september at the current testing rate in the u.s. of around 700K a day.  
 
 
 
 
 
post edited by snagr - 2020/08/09 12:58:44
snagr
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/09 12:55:48 (permalink)
https://sentinelksmo.org/kdhe-doctored-a-covid-case-chart-to-justify-mask-mandates/
 
the graph presented at the presser:
 
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the real graph
 
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BeenThereDoneThat.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/09 13:27:01 (permalink)
I beg your pardon butt thanks, no thanks.

I prefer the "real" truth and nothing butt the truth.

MyLiar should be along shortly with the "real" facts and figures. Just as soon as he can conjure up internet rhetoric, which fits his agenda.

Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you will feed him for a life time. ~Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie (1837–1919)~
 
 
 
  Old fisherman never die; we just smell that way. 
 
snagr
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/11 10:21:51 (permalink)
c.d.c. now says it’s pretty much pointless to test and isolate asymptomatic people.

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BeenThereDoneThat.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/11 11:16:13 (permalink)
snagr as always, very interesting and informative info. 👍


In other news.....

With the discrepancies we see with testing and Dr Falsie admitting (until he changes his mind.. again) the virus will never be fully contained.... how will we know the stuff the FDA, CDC annnnnd "scientist" (eventually) will approve to be a vaccine, isn't some left over flu vaccines from years gone by.... if a vaccine at all.

We're at the mercy of a few scientist and a quack seeking his claim to fame.

As is happening before our eyes this very day, a scientist or physician "speaking out" about a said vaccine, will be pummeled by the anti-America news media and threatened from rogue politicians.

So.... as your goverment exercises "their power' to plunge a needle into your arm, one might ask.....

💉WHAT'S IN YOUR VACCINE?💉

Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you will feed him for a life time. ~Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie (1837–1919)~
 
 
 
  Old fisherman never die; we just smell that way. 
 
r3g3
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/14 13:00:30 (permalink)
Am gettin sick and freakin tired of Socialist Dems trying to change America and Americans by using the virus as their scare tactic to facilitate their ultimate goals.
First biggie is trying to use it for mail in ballots as we cannot be near each other - except in the super markets etc- so voting gotta be the way  they have wanted it for years'
 
Now they say they cant recognize 9/11 with the two large blue lights shining upwards from ground zero because of the virus.
What the heii have two big lights shining got to do with the virus you may ask ??
Changing America from being nationalistic may well be an answer--ya know like no more Anthem at ball games.
 
Its gonna come to a head sooner or later.
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/14 13:31:35 (permalink)
They need to fix the polling situations and no need for any absentee ballots.  No one should ever have to wait 3-4 hours in line to vote, regardless of a pandemic or not.  Have polls extended a few days.  A-D first day, E-H the next day, etc.  Have another day to vote for those that couldn't make their other day, since they were out of town or whatever reason.
 
Swap polling stations of inner city areas and small towns.  That would be fun to watch...
 
How can the government have a system for doing taxes completely online and able to figure out safeguards, but can't figure something out for voting?  
r3g3
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/15 15:22:15 (permalink)
As one who arrived at Ground Zero in the wee hours of 9/12, and started digging by hand with other responders , I must applaud Tunnels to towers CEO for promising to 'get it done' with the two Memorial blue upward shining lights.
 De Blasio and company thought it was a good idea to cancel the lights and did so a few days ago, reportedly because of Covis.
IMHO-IT  WAS MORE LIKELY BECAUSE THEY HATE AMERICA.
 
Trump 2020
 
 
Now I see that The Ny Gov and former mayor Bloomberg are getting in on it too - after the outcry.
post edited by r3g3 - 2020/08/15 18:31:24
snagr
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/17 11:43:11 (permalink)
for anybody still interested in following the data and science about herd immunity and the relative functional uselessness of lockdowns and masks here ya go:
 
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1295152579941249024.html
post edited by snagr - 2020/08/17 12:37:01
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/17 14:00:17 (permalink)
Looks like things are getting out of control in South Korea.  They broke the 300 death plateau.  With 50M+ people and population density of many US cities, it is hard to compare them to the US.  Such a failure.  
 
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/08/17/903157458/south-korea-faces-new-spike-in-covid-19-after-months-of-low-infection-rates
r3g3
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/21 20:29:25 (permalink)
What ? are they NUTS--
Deaths and hospitalizations are way down to zero for a while in Ct lately so what do people do--
Yippee act like it never happened---
ex--
Most evenings I ride around the East side of town looking at deer just before sunset.
My path takes me past a winery with a large room for get togethers and large deck and some picnic tables and a deck outside- Its on a hilltop with great vista too.
 In the height of the disease few cars were there - if any - OK it was Winter- this lasted till the state started to open up as things started to calm a number of weeks ago.
 
The past week or so there at least 80 to a hundred cars in the lot at dusk- tonight there were at least 200.
Figure around 2 people to a car- 400.
 
I have been to the place in the past when there were far fewer and social distancing would be difficult at best even with the lower numbers.
 
The wheel is turning and I read tonight where our numbers are starting to creep up.
People can be really dumb.
 
ICE NUT
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/21 23:45:33 (permalink)
Its pretty much business as usual around here also.Locol pub is bustling ,WalMart is jammed even early morning, Home depot and Lowes busy and wife and I went to meadows casino and it wasn't crowded but plenty of folks there. We were up at camp for 3 days up north and the campgrounds were packed as were the gas stations and food stores.I guess if you can play football everything must be fine all except going to school??????
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/22 09:15:33 (permalink)
If we took the approach that South Korea did, there would be school and most businesses running like normal. But yeah, we did it the right way.
DarDys
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/22 10:44:19 (permalink)
So you are comparing SK’s size, population diversity, climate diversity, geographic diversity, degree of freedom to that of the US? There is no comparison. The “other country” or one-size-fits-all approach just cannot work in the US because they are just not the same.

The poster formally known as Duncsdad

Everything I say can be fully substantiated by my own opinion.
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/22 13:17:32 (permalink)
I sure am. 50 million people with the population density of many of our cities. Under 350 deaths. Never had a shutdown like we did. 350 million people with far less population density. 175,000+ deaths. Not even debatable that they handled better.
DarDys
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/22 13:42:41 (permalink)
Sure it is debatable.

Do they have the same population diversity, some of which has shown to be more susceptible? No.

Do they have the same climate diversity that has proven to be hot spots in some and not others? No.

Do they have the same geographical diversity that has proven to be hot spots in some and not others? No.

Do they have the freedom that has proven to be hot spots in some and not others? No.

Looking at only population density is like only using a light action rod with 6 lb test and a 1/8 oz jig head with a twister tail for all the fish species and types of waterways. It might work, but is easily debatable as “the” way to go.

The poster formally known as Duncsdad

Everything I say can be fully substantiated by my own opinion.
Walleye jigs
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/22 14:04:05 (permalink)
And do they have as many morons as we do?
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/22 16:25:44 (permalink)
Ha!
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/22 16:33:29 (permalink)
DarDys
Sure it is debatable.

Do they have the same population diversity, some of which has shown to be more susceptible? No.

Do they have the same climate diversity that has proven to be hot spots in some and not others? No.

Do they have the same geographical diversity that has proven to be hot spots in some and not others? No.

Do they have the freedom that has proven to be hot spots in some and not others? No.

Looking at only population density is like only using a light action rod with 6 lb test and a 1/8 oz jig head with a twister tail for all the fish species and types of waterways. It might work, but is easily debatable as “the” way to go.

Wow, that surely explains 176,000 to 310. You sure are smart. Thanks for your bigly knowledge.
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/22 16:47:11 (permalink)
DarDys
Do they have the freedom that has proven to be hot spots in some and not others? No.




What does this even mean?

Do you mean “American Freedom”? That’s when other people suffer the consequences of my actions because I think I am entitled to do whatever I want, whenever I want to do it, regardless of how it impacts other people.

Yea, South Korea definitely doesn’t have that.
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/22 17:04:29 (permalink)
Porktown
I sure am. 50 million people with the population density of many of our cities. Under 350 deaths. Never had a shutdown like we did. 350 million people with far less population density. 175,000+ deaths. Not even debatable that they handled better.


Seoul actually has a population density higher than New York City (and therefore, higher than just about every other city in the US). Seoul has a population of about 10 million (2 million more than NYC), so about 1/5 of the entire South Korean population lives there. Having a lower population density would actually be to our *advantage* when controlling an outbreak, but yet our numbers are worse.

Even when just comparing the 23,000+ deaths in NYC to deaths Seoul, you can’t just explain such a huge disparity with demographic variables like age, or climate.

The fact that S Korea was able to control this outbreak in a city like Seoul is nothing short of remarkable.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/22 17:23:23 (permalink)
Yes and now there going into total lockdown b/c the virus is rearing its head again.So are all the other countries that supposedly knocked it down are getting hit again and are probably going to lock down again. I guess all these other world leaders you libbys love arn't any more competent than ours. The virus is controlling things no political leader is.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/22 17:59:39 (permalink)
We are very different from S Korea, but those differences can’t begin to explain the disparate infection/death numbers. They’re not going into “lockdown” right now, they’re aggressively managing flare-ups, which they’ve been doing all along. It seems we can learn a lot from them.

https://time.com/5872184/...t-tracers-coronavirus/
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/22 19:12:41 (permalink)
ICE NUT
Yes and now there going into total lockdown b/c the virus is rearing its head again.So are all the other countries that supposedly knocked it down are getting hit again and are probably going to lock down again. I guess all these other world leaders you libbys love arn't any more competent than ours. The virus is controlling things no political leader is.




First of all, you are deflecting. 
 
Second, you still aren't getting it. New Zealand had basically eradicated it. Life was completely back to normal. South Korea and New Zealand are taking measures proactively now that there are more cases so that the outbreaks will be controlled, and loss of life and impact to the economy will be minimal. Its really that simple.
 
Nobody is under the mistaken belief that once its gone, its gone for good and it will never come back. Even Jacinda Arden and all us "libbys" realize that this will be an ongoing battle until there is a vaccine or better treatments become available. Its what we do in the meantime that makes a difference; do you want hundreds of deaths? or hundreds of thousands of deaths?
 
 
 
 
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