Helpful ReplyHot!Coronavirus opinions

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snagr
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/03 15:52:16 (permalink)
LDD
So, I'm mostly concerned about those groups because of the impact their choices are having on my school aged kids.  Every irresponsible group drives up the likelihood of the virus being passed on which drives up the likelihood that schools and their related activities will be shut down. A person only gets to be young once.  The impact on the young of this country through the selfishness of adults is something that cannot be overstated.  I've seen it again and again in our culture where adults have chased their own goals, their own dreams, their own ambitions, only to leave their children out.  When I see those crowds together not wearing masks or socially distancing that's what I see.  



fair enough, there is certainly a lot of that in our culture.  and if you have kids i'm sure you're aware of the impacts on emotional and mental health that this has had on kids.  not to mention the kids who are most loved and whose physical needs are most well taken care of at school.  
 
but i'd encourage you to think of it like this.  if our peak rate of infection (not the raw numbers of infections but the ratio of positive tests to tests) in pa and most other parts of the northeast was in march and april, based on what we know now from all the seroprevalence studies and studies of control populations that show the high rates of asymptomatic cases (prisons, cruise ships, homeless shelters, air craft carriers, labor and delivery units in hospitals), how many kids do you think were infected in february and march by the coronavirus before schools shut down?  spikes in hospitalizations lag by about 14-21 days behind spikes in high infection rates, and spikes in deaths lag about 21-28 days behind spikes in infection rates, so the end results we saw from mid march to early april in many parts of the u.s. was seeded before schools closed and states locked down.  so if there is immunity to it, or at least innate ability of healthy immune systems to fight it off, many kids probably already have that.  most of us who live in areas where it was more prevalent probably already have that.  
 
might help ease your mind a bit if you look at data and conclusions from around the world - europe is doing great work in this area - about positive test rates, and how hospitalizations and deaths follow as that rate increases. positive testing rates have been decreasing pretty significantly in pa and in most other parts of the northeast and mid atlantic for weeks now.  those who study immunology and epidemiology that aren't trying to politicize this say that's a pretty good indication that this is burning out and that we are nearing or have reached herd immunity.  not that there won't be any cases or that anybody won't die from it, or that it won't flare up again some time in the future, but this is pretty encouraging stuff at this point in this pandemic.  
 
speaking of pandemics, do you know that according to c.d.c guidelines for labeling pandemics, that this is no longer a pandemic and hasn't been for about 4 weeks now?  
 
 
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/03 15:54:11 (permalink)
snAgR//  
 
We definitely agree on more things than we disagree and always good to discuss with you.  100% on the fear vs. rational/reasonable concern.  Unfortunately, TV ratings always seem better marketing fear...  Fortunately, some of the media covering is honest and not doing things to scare, but doing things to inform.
 
The Netflix Pandemic program, mentioned something similar about one of the recent flu years.  It was largely due to people not getting the vaccine, at least that is what they claimed.  That show could be part of the deep state though...
 
100% on the excess deaths too.  This was mentioned being an outcome of overcrowded hospitals months ago.  But likely seeing more from people not being able to see their Dr., scared to go to treatments and like noted about overdoses and those taking their own lives.  I personally didn't predict that, but know that you mentioned it before and others as well, and certainly what we see happening.  My wife lost her uncle, possibly from not getting checked out during the pandemic.  He passed away quickly, so not sure if they could have done too much regardless, but we'll never know.  Once we get beyond the politics of the virus, those lives lost should certainly be counted as victims of the overall pandemic, IMO.  As will be the long term deaths of overdoses and suicides that are likely to keep resulting.  This pandemic is going to be felt for many years after the last case is long gone.
 
 
 
 
snagr
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/03 16:12:28 (permalink)
Porktown
Once we get beyond the politics of the virus, those lives lost should certainly be counted as victims of the overall pandemic, IMO.  As will be the long term deaths of overdoses and suicides that are likely to keep resulting.  This pandemic is going to be felt for many years after the last case is long gone.



here's another eye popper in regards to this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/health/coronavirus-tuberculosis-aids-malaria.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nythealth
 
"Lockdown measures for the pandemic could result in an additional 6.3 million cases of T.B. and 1.4 million deaths."
 
 
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/03 16:29:25 (permalink)
Oh great. I just got done convincing myself that this itchy throat and dry cough was just allergies and not Covid. Now I have to Google TB symptoms to really give myself an anxiety attack! Mostly joking... I no longer allow myself on WebMD or other. 30 minutes after looking for at home treatments for a rash (that goes away in a week on its own), I am half convinced that I have some sort of incurable cancer or something. Which then takes an hour or two to realize that I WebMDed myself again.
LDD
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/03 17:18:54 (permalink)
snagr
LDD
So, I'm mostly concerned about those groups because of the impact their choices are having on my school aged kids.  Every irresponsible group drives up the likelihood of the virus being passed on which drives up the likelihood that schools and their related activities will be shut down. A person only gets to be young once.  The impact on the young of this country through the selfishness of adults is something that cannot be overstated.  I've seen it again and again in our culture where adults have chased their own goals, their own dreams, their own ambitions, only to leave their children out.  When I see those crowds together not wearing masks or socially distancing that's what I see.  



fair enough, there is certainly a lot of that in our culture.  and if you have kids i'm sure you're aware of the impacts on emotional and mental health that this has had on kids.  not to mention the kids who are most loved and whose physical needs are most well taken care of at school.  
 
but i'd encourage you to think of it like this.  if our peak rate of infection (not the raw numbers of infections but the ratio of positive tests to tests) in pa and most other parts of the northeast was in march and april, based on what we know now from all the seroprevalence studies and studies of control populations that show the high rates of asymptomatic cases (prisons, cruise ships, homeless shelters, air craft carriers, labor and delivery units in hospitals), how many kids do you think were infected in february and march by the coronavirus before schools shut down?  spikes in hospitalizations lag by about 14-21 days behind spikes in high infection rates, and spikes in deaths lag about 21-28 days behind spikes in infection rates, so the end results we saw from mid march to early april in many parts of the u.s. was seeded before schools closed and states locked down.  so if there is immunity to it, or at least innate ability of healthy immune systems to fight it off, many kids probably already have that.  most of us who live in areas where it was more prevalent probably already have that.  
 
might help ease your mind a bit if you look at data and conclusions from around the world - europe is doing great work in this area - about positive test rates, and how hospitalizations and deaths follow as that rate increases. positive testing rates have been decreasing pretty significantly in pa and in most other parts of the northeast and mid atlantic for weeks now.  those who study immunology and epidemiology that aren't trying to politicize this say that's a pretty good indication that this is burning out and that we are nearing or have reached herd immunity.  not that there won't be any cases or that anybody won't die from it, or that it won't flare up again some time in the future, but this is pretty encouraging stuff at this point in this pandemic.  
 
speaking of pandemics, do you know that according to c.d.c guidelines for labeling pandemics, that this is no longer a pandemic and hasn't been for about 4 weeks now?  
 
 


 
 
I don't necessarily buy into the "it was spread around in the winter" idea.  Mainly because wherever this thing has gone and wherever infection rates have been high people have died.  In my small community one person has died and it was contact traced to a situation not in our community.  If half of our local high school students contracted the virus that would be about 200 kids.  If those kids took it home it would be a very high infection rate in the community maybe about 1000 people and we would have seen about 10 deaths based on the 1% mortality (not sure that's the correct % still?).  I am a coach and am often in the school.  There are some VERY high risk students  who would have been exposed and those outcomes would not have been good had those student been exposed.   
 
I firmly believe that kids will fare well against the virus, they may not fare well against the selfish behaviors of their fellow Americans that could very well keep them out of school and out of their school related activities.   
snagr
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/04 16:31:47 (permalink)
LDD
Mainly because wherever this thing has gone and wherever infection rates have been high people have died. 

 
not necessarily.  
 
seems that a lot of it depends on the age structure and overall health of the population.  here's an interesting article i saw linked on twitter yesterday.  obviously a very biased source trying to make the argument against masking, but there is some good data in it from closed populations at ft. benning, the diamond princess cruise ship and the u.s.s roosevelt where outbreaks occurred.  
 
https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-fort-benning-japan-hawaii-face-masks-not-working/?utm_content=buffer0a7b3&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=tw-cr
 
about 640 in the group at ft. benning, 142 positives, no hospitalizations or deaths
 
about 4800 on the roosevelt, about 1150 positive, 6 hospitalized and one death.  
 
obviously, a basic training batallion at ft. benning and the crew of an aircraft carrier are not representative of the general population, and the cruise ship was skewed older. 1.8% of the confirmed positives died on the cruise ship.  there's more demographic data here on the cruise ship (and it's pretty straightforward/just the facts with ages and comorbitities): https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/06/covid-19-cruise-ship-studies-reflect-unique-disease-traits
 
the main unbiased takeaway from the c.r. article:
 
"This is another great example of what Nobel laureate Michael Levitt, Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta, and Stanford professor John Ioannidis predicted early on based on the natural case study of the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak – that the virus hits a brick wall in most places around the 15%-20% marker. Seventeen percent of passengers on the Diamond Princess tested positive. The working theory is that most people have some degree of cross-immunity from other coronavirus colds and that the virus does not transmit homogeneously from every infected individual."
 
LDD
If half of our local high school students contracted the virus that would be about 200 kids.  If those kids took it home it would be a very high infection rate in the community maybe about 1000 people and we would have seen about 10 deaths based on the 1% mortality (not sure that's the correct % still?).

 
eurpoean nations that have had schools reopened for a couple months now have done a lot of monitoring and testing and tracing.  largely what they're finding is that kids, especially pre-teens, kind of act like a braking system on the spread.  they are not spreading it to one another in schools.  they are not spreading it to teachers and other adults in the schools. there's been a lot of tracing done world wide in the spread at home as well, and kids are not driving the transmission to adults in homes either.  it happens, but it's an almost insignificant source of transmission.  some of those countries are doing away altogether with any mitigation measures like physical distancing and masking in schools, and some of those countries are doing away with any mitigation measures in general.   
 
 
LDD
 
There are some VERY high risk students  who would have been exposed and those outcomes would not have been good had those student been exposed.   

 
no doubt.  some in our school district too and i imagine every school district across america.   and i would imagine that those parents will choose online education for their kids.  i'm not aware of a school district around that is not offering an all online curriculum for students this fall.  
 
i've got kids in school as well, and i hope that they're able to return in a few weeks.  they are very healthy, and we have chosen the 5 days a week in person option for them.  online learning wasn't so much learning as it was busy work.  they suffered some emotional and mental effects from not being with friends and participating in sports and other activities, and they're pretty emotionally healthy in general.  i hope school sports and other activities are a go in some form or fashion, and that at least family members are allowed in as spectators.  i hope that kids for whom school is the safest and most sure thing in their lives can return and have some sense of normalcy again.  
 
i think you and i share a lot of the same concerns about how it will go and what it will look like.  things could certainly be different here than they have been in europe.  there's no certainty one way or another about a second wave in the fall or winter.  i think there's good emerging evidence that there won't be, but nobody knows for sure.  
 
 
 
 
snagr
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/04 19:48:44 (permalink)
ldd, here's another one from norway just today.  the staff and crew of a cruise ship.  22% positive rate.  all asymptomatic.  
 
https://www.hurtigruten.com/practical-information/coronavirus-update/ra31072020/


 
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/04 20:12:12 (permalink)
snagr
 
the main unbiased takeaway from the c.r. article:
 
"This is another great example of what Nobel laureate Michael Levitt, Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta, and Stanford professor John Ioannidis predicted early on based on the natural case study of the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak – that the virus hits a brick wall in most places around the 15%-20% marker. Seventeen percent of passengers on the Diamond Princess tested positive. The working theory is that most people have some degree of cross-immunity from other coronavirus colds and that the virus does not transmit homogeneously from every infected individual."
 



 
20% huh? No big deal? Let's see what that would actually look like...
 
The population of the US is about 328 million, so 20% of the US population is about 65,600,000 and the infection mortality rate based on NYC data is 1.4% 
(.2 x 328,000,000) x .014 = 918,400 deaths nationwide.
 
What if Gupta is off and the rate is actually like 30%?
(.3 x 328,000,000) x .014 = 1,377,600 deaths
 
Or what about 40% as suggested by the mathematicians cited in the article?
(.4 x 328,000,000) x .014 = 1,836,800 deaths
 
And 900,000+ dead bodies is only the short term costs, how about the long term damage to individuals that get the virus and fully recover
 
Keep in mind that there is no data yet that confirms any kind of cross-immunity, in fact we don't even know for sure if you are immune after you have had it the first time, so none of these estimates could be accurate and herd immunity could be 60 - 70% (which is the generally accepted range, and would result in at least 2,755,200 deaths).
 
You seem awfully cavalier about the lives of a million Americans. But since people like you seem totally OK with rolling the dice with the lives of millions of Americans, we can check back in 30 day intervals to see: (1) if you are indeed correct about that 20% herd immunity estimate, and (2) if you are, what the actual costs of 65,000,000+ corona virus infections and 900,000+ dead Americans really looks like.
 
 
 
 
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/04 20:24:41 (permalink)
You were wrong six months ago, and still continue to be wrong. Will you never learn? resquared/snagr had things nailed, and in perspective months ago, and you still try to force your flawed theories and number on us.
snagr
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/04 22:52:19 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby JM2 2020/08/04 23:11:29
MyWar
 
 
 
20% huh? No big deal? Let's see what that would actually look like...
 
The population of the US is about 328 million, so 20% of the US population is about 65,600,000 and the infection mortality rate based on NYC data is 1.4% 
(.2 x 328,000,000) x .014 = 918,400 deaths nationwide.
 
What if Gupta is off and the rate is actually like 30%?
(.3 x 328,000,000) x .014 = 1,377,600 deaths
 
Or what about 40% as suggested by the mathematicians cited in the article?
(.4 x 328,000,000) x .014 = 1,836,800 deaths
 
And 900,000+ dead bodies is only the short term costs, how about the long term damage to individuals that get the virus and fully recover
 
Keep in mind that there is no data yet that confirms any kind of cross-immunity, in fact we don't even know for sure if you are immune after you have had it the first time, so none of these estimates could be accurate and herd immunity could be 60 - 70% (which is the generally accepted range, and would result in at least 2,755,200 deaths).
 
You seem awfully cavalier about the lives of a million Americans. But since people like you seem totally OK with rolling the dice with the lives of millions of Americans, we can check back in 30 day intervals to see: (1) if you are indeed correct about that 20% herd immunity estimate, and (2) if you are, what the actual costs of 65,000,000+ corona virus infections and 900,000+ dead Americans really looks like.
 




i acknowledged that there are still unknowns.  but following 5 months of research, following the data and science has given us a clearer understanding of what has happened in those 5 months.  the future is still unknown, but based on what the world is reporting (at least open, democratic countries that can be trusted) this idea that herd immunity can be reached somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% seems to be gaining some traction.  but as you pointed out, it's certainly not settled.     
 
the c.d.c. acknowledged a few weeks ago that the actual infection rate is at least 10x higher than positives that are confirmed.  the c.d.c says we're at 4,698,818 confirmed cases today.  so by the c.d.c estimate of actual infections that puts us at around 47 million actual infections.  other seroprevalence studies and studies of controlled populations around the world have found actual infections are 15-25 times higher than confirmed positives which would put us at 70 to 117 million actual infections.  
 
with the c.d.c estimates of 10x actual vs. confirmed, the infection fatality rate right now in the u.s is .3%.  
 
with other estimates of 15-25x actual vs. confirmed, the infection fatality rate in the us right now is .13% to .2% 
 
30% herd immunity would mean 98.4 million actual infections in the u.s. which based on those estimates of actual vs. confirmed would put us between 128K and 295K deaths.  
 
40% herd immunity means 131.2 million infections which would put us between 197K and 394K deaths.  
 
none of those scenarios put us anywhere near a million deaths in the u.s. at the current pace we're on right now.  could it change?  for sure.  i acknowledge that.  we don't know if there will be second, third, or fourth waves like the first wave.  but we don't know that there will be.    
 
of course we get into the accounting issues of how positive cases are/have been recorded:
- presumed positives in some states (if a person tests positive, everyone in the household is presumed positive even without a test)
- multiple positives of one person counting as new positives in some states.  re-testing till they get to two negatives to be cleared for work, for example.  
- false positives with some of the types of testing being done (including two very prominent professional athletes this week).  
 
and the accounting issues of how deaths have been attributed: 
- from covid
- with covid
- maybe covid
 
robert redfield of the c.d.c. acknowledged this week the big financial incentives for hospitals and health systems to have positive inpatients and to have deaths with positive or attributed to covid.  
 
and all of the math is pretty fuzzy, whether you're on team lock it all down or team this is all a nothing burger, or somewhere in between.  and it'll probably continue to be fuzzy for quite awhile in the u.s.  many european nations have had very clean and straightforward accounting of their situations.  we are not them and they are not us, but as with many respiratory viral infections, outbreaks in one place follow similar patterns in other places, and it's helpful to see what their medical and science people are finding out about this virus.  
 
 
 
JM2
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/04 23:10:55 (permalink)
You're talking to a dog's butt, and you know what is going to come out of it. Thanks anyway.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/05 07:31:00 (permalink)
That is extremely interesting data. How pure it is remains in question, but it is better than the theories that were put forth when nothing was known. If anything, with any comorbidity deaths bring attributable to Covid ( unlike other mixed causes, like the flu), the death toll is overstated, which has even those numbers being cautious.

Thank you for taking the time to do that deep dive research.

The poster formally known as Duncsdad

Everything I say can be fully substantiated by my own opinion.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/05 10:14:59 (permalink)
🤔 Sumpthin about this snagr fella says he's sumbuddy I'd like to meet.

Sounds like the kind a guy ya could enjoy a good conversation with, while fishing on a river bank.👍

Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you will feed him for a life time. ~Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie (1837–1919)~
 
 
 
  Old fisherman never die; we just smell that way. 
 
BeenThereDoneThat.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/05 10:20:37 (permalink)
JM2
You're talking to a dog's butt, and you know what is going to come out of it. Thanks anyway.



Would you pleeeeeze.... stop insulting dogs? 🐕 😁

South end of a north bound horse would be more appropriate.
post edited by BeenThereDoneThat. - 2020/08/05 10:22:43

Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you will feed him for a life time. ~Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie (1837–1919)~
 
 
 
  Old fisherman never die; we just smell that way. 
 
snagr
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/05 10:39:33 (permalink)
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snagr
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/05 11:47:45 (permalink)
i think if the huge financial incentives that the health care industry has to find covid and make deaths attributable to covid were taken away we’d be seeing some very, very different statistics right now.

can’t blame them though. lockdowns crushed their bottom lines and led to huge staffing cuts. just making lemonade out of lemons I suppose and making up for lost revenue. just read this morning that routine cancer screenings through 2020 are down over 60% where they were at this time last year. similar figures for cardiac, pulmonary and stroke care as well.

a thought I had this morning. remember two months ago when wolf and levine were always talking about making data driven decisions and following the science in reopening pa? can’t remember the last time i heard that from one of them.

my wife who is much smarter than me and works in healthcare and has a million hoops to jump through in her speciality, but is also much more compliant with all of this than me, brought up an interesting point in regards to schools. day cares - which she’s in sometimes for her specialty - have been open for months now across the country. they are veritable petri dishes all the time. no outbreaks attributed to any of them that she’s aware of. i haven’t heard of any. anybody?
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/05 11:56:41 (permalink)
DarDys


Thank you for taking the time to do that deep dive research.


not a deep dive at all. it’s all info that’s readily available to anybody with the intellectual honesty and curiosity that wants to understand what’s really going on. if you have internet access and a calculator anybody could have compiled those figures in ten minutes.

i read as much as i can about this because i feel like it’s my responsibility to make informed decisions regarding the health and safety of people that i love and for whom i feel responsible.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/05 12:09:12 (permalink)
snagr
DarDys


Thank you for taking the time to do that deep dive research.


not a deep dive at all. it’s all info that’s readily available to anybody with the intellectual honesty and curiosity that wants to understand what’s really going on. if you have internet access and a calculator anybody could have compiled those figures in ten minutes.



Then why are all the brilliant folks in the mainstream media not able to do that same math and report those findings?

Give all y’all three guess and the first two don’t count.

The poster formally known as Duncsdad

Everything I say can be fully substantiated by my own opinion.
snagr
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/05 13:37:39 (permalink)
BeenThereDoneThat.
🤔 Sumpthin about this snagr fella says he's sumbuddy I'd like to meet.

Sounds like the kind a guy ya could enjoy a good conversation with, while fishing on a river bank.👍



how 'bout wading in the water along the gulf coast somewhere?  
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/05 17:17:32 (permalink)
snagr
 
 
 
with the c.d.c estimates of 10x actual vs. confirmed, the infection fatality rate right now in the u.s is .3%.  
 
with other estimates of 15-25x actual vs. confirmed, the infection fatality rate in the us right now is .13% to .2% 
 
30% herd immunity would mean 98.4 million actual infections in the u.s. which based on those estimates of actual vs. confirmed would put us between 128K and 295K deaths.  
 
40% herd immunity means 131.2 million infections which would put us between 197K and 394K deaths.  
 
 



If you want to argue that my cited infection mortality of 1.7% is too high, sure, I will concede that it could be. That seems to be one of the crucial variables, right? But your estimates of .2% and .13% are just.... ridiculous. You're basing your IMRs on a series of biased guesses, and there are no credible scientific or medical body that would support a claim of the infected mortality rates being that low. The best, fair estimate I could find was 0.6% as cited in this Times article from July which was a consensus agreed by the World Health Organization and 1,300 scientists. That is twice as high as the highest rate in your post.
 
But even at 0.6% IMR and 20% herd immunity, that comes out to 393,600 deaths. That is still an astronomical cost of human life. And remember that we don't have any good hard data that says we will achieve herd immunity at 20%, so almost half a million dead bodies is a "best possible outcome" in the scenario you propose (at 30% its 590,400, and at 50% its 984,000).
 
And you also haven't addressed my other point about the long term detrimental health affects and costs of COVID 19 infection of tens of millions of Americans (click here, or here, or here), which at this point, are just as, if not more likely than this magical 20% herd immunity.
 
There is also the crude mortality rate, which in NYC it in believed to be 0.28%. A crude mortality rate of 0.28% against the US population of the US (328 million) comes out to 918,400. But that is only at a rate of 23.2% seroprevalence for the population in the NYC metro area (according to the CDC, round 2, April - May 5), so its possible that the crude mortality rate could be much higher if 100% of the population was actually exposed to the virus. The crude mortality rate could be twice as high as what we actually saw in NYC, which would be in the neighborhood of 2 million dead bodies.
 
Your argument seems to come down to: "there are so many unknowns, so let's just make a bunch of guesses and assume all of the unknown variables favor my position" 
(and yes I am fully aware that's a straw man and I don't care)
 
 
 
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/05 17:20:42 (permalink)
snagr
 
 
 
30% herd immunity would mean 98.4 million actual infections in the u.s. which based on those estimates of actual vs. confirmed would put us between 128K and 295K deaths.  
 
 



 
We are already at over 160,000 deaths, which has surpassed the low end of the range you posted there. Clearly something is wrong with your analysis.
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/05 17:31:35 (permalink)
DarDys
That is extremely interesting data. How pure it is remains in question, but it is better than the theories that were put forth when nothing was known. If anything, with any comorbidity deaths bring attributable to Covid ( unlike other mixed causes, like the flu), the death toll is overstated, which has even those numbers being cautious.

Thank you for taking the time to do that deep dive research.



Its not a deep dive, its a pseudo-scientific "analysis" based on numbers that weren't even cherry picked, they were just made up. And your reaction is a textbook example of confirmation bias.
 
One of his sources attributed asymptomatic cases to "God's mercy" and another one is about a cruise ship which doesn't contain enough meaningful data to draw any conclusions about anything. That's not "research". And its certainly not the kind of supporting documentation you use to make public policy decisions that impact the lives of 100s of millions of people.
Walleye jigs
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/05 18:43:48 (permalink)
Went to my bank this morning,  sign on door states if you're wearing a hoodie, hat/cap or sunglasses please remove. Mask is mandatory.  Robbers heaven.
CRAPPIE_SLAYER
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/05 19:51:09 (permalink)
Walleye jigs
Went to my bank this morning,  sign on door states if you're wearing a hoodie, hat/cap or sunglasses please remove. Mask is mandatory.  Robbers heaven.


Lol Jigs....was in my local branch last week and thought the same thing. I use a bandanna for a mask and when I walked up to the teller I told her its kinda fun feeling like I'm a bank robber in an old wild west movie. She got a good laugh. Maybe next time I'll try our my new ski mask. We'll see how that goes...😉
BeenThereDoneThat.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/05 21:00:18 (permalink)
Heck, I gotta call and make an appointment to enter my bank. No doubt, more about the "who was that mask man" than the virus.

No problem with drive through.

Jigs good to see ya on the board. I hope all is going well for you since your hospital visit.

Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you will feed him for a life time. ~Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie (1837–1919)~
 
 
 
  Old fisherman never die; we just smell that way. 
 
BeenThereDoneThat.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/05 21:11:20 (permalink)
snagr
BeenThereDoneThat.
🤔 Sumpthin about this snagr fella says he's sumbuddy I'd like to meet.

Sounds like the kind a guy ya could enjoy a good conversation with, while fishing on a river bank.👍



how 'bout wading in the water along the gulf coast somewhere?  


You're on..... 👍


ummm, you buy the po boys samidges. 😁


Wait.... 😳What, wading in the Gulf,🦈 let me get back to you on that part. 🦈 🙁
post edited by BeenThereDoneThat. - 2020/08/05 21:18:26

Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you will feed him for a life time. ~Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie (1837–1919)~
 
 
 
  Old fisherman never die; we just smell that way. 
 
snagr
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/06 00:11:50 (permalink)
BeenThereDoneThat.
ummm, you buy the po boys samidges. 😁

 
before or after we fish?  or both?  harbor view cafe in long beach, ms or pirates cove in pass christian, ms got the best shrimp ones i've ever had.  and i know how to catch fish there.  pick a date this fall or winter and i'll meet ya there.  

BeenThereDoneThat.
Wait.... 😳What, wading in the Gulf,🦈 let me get back to you on that part. 🦈 🙁



better get to living a little before the rona gets ya.  
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/06 00:30:07 (permalink)
MyWar
snagr
 
 
 
30% herd immunity would mean 98.4 million actual infections in the u.s. which based on those estimates of actual vs. confirmed would put us between 128K and 295K deaths.  
 
 



 
We are already at over 160,000 deaths, which has surpassed the low end of the range you posted there. Clearly something is wrong with your analysis.




did you see the high end of 295K?  
 
that number was based on a .3% i.f.r. with the c.d.c reported numbers when i posted
- 4.7 million confirmed positives
- 155K deaths
- their projection that actual cases are at least 10x confirmed positives (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/)
 
infection fatality rate
155,000/47,000,000 = .003
 
30% of the u.s. population
328,000,000 X .3 = 98,000,000
 
30% of the u.s. population infected with a .3% i.f.r.  
98,000,000 X .003 = 294,000
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BeenThereDoneThat.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/06 07:55:49 (permalink)
snagr if the Covid-BS doesn't mess things up, we'll need a spot to land til 12/1, in the Long Beach area.

After 12/1 to 4/1, we're only 2.5 ish hours away and would only need find a lay over for a short time.

Our new home has been moved to the paint shop and will be there 2 to 3 weeks. We're hoping to be moved in first week of Sept.

Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you will feed him for a life time. ~Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie (1837–1919)~
 
 
 
  Old fisherman never die; we just smell that way. 
 
eyesandgillz
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/08/06 08:07:47 (permalink)
Go back under your bed MyWar....maybe uncle Joe will give you a back rub and hair sniff while you are under there to comfort you....
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