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Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 19:37:20 (permalink)
rsquared
They point out that hospital admissions are a good stat to look at, as they tend to provide a statistic in all of this that does a few things.  It's objective.  Either a person is admitted for COVID or they're not.  It is also a good barometer of how serious confirmed cases are.  
 

I can understand that, but I am yet to see anything saying that admissions for COVID 19 are down?  And not sure how they could be, if it is exponentially doubling.
 
Even if they admissions are slowing, they are already beyond capacity.  Those current patients aren't leaving the hospitals very quickly.  From what I am reading, many hospitals no longer have ICU beds.  They are taking over other wings of the hospitals with COVID patients and forcing other "less urgent" patients out of getting the care they need.  So, the mortality rate of those patients is now intertwined with the COVID response (although won't be in any data).
 
Let me know where you are getting these admission numbers.  I would be interested in seeing.  Hopefully they are peaked.  From the sounds of Trump's medical team, they are still 2 weeks out.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 19:39:08 (permalink)
MyWar
DarDys
Porktown
Can anyone explain what happened from 3/23, where things were to be back to normal in a couple of weeks.  To 3/27, where it is announced that at a minimum, 100K will die from this?  
 
 


Yeah, NYC was NYC.

Look at the graph presented yesterday and remove NY and NJ. Things would have looked semi normal in the next few weeks. More so if they didn’t escape to other states.

When two states have more cases and deaths than the other 48 combined, that is a localized problem, not a national one. Of course, by trying to escape, they exasperated the national problem.


And here we have the conservatives blaming the cities. Did I not predict this?


Soooooo.....most of the current hotspots are not in or near major metropolitan areas???
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 19:41:42 (permalink)
Porktown
rsquared
They point out that hospital admissions are a good stat to look at, as they tend to provide a statistic in all of this that does a few things.  It's objective.  Either a person is admitted for COVID or they're not.  It is also a good barometer of how serious confirmed cases are.  
 

I can understand that, but I am yet to see anything saying that admissions for COVID 19 are down?  And not sure how they could be, if it is exponentially doubling.
 
Even if they admissions are slowing, they are already beyond capacity.  Those current patients aren't leaving the hospitals very quickly.  From what I am reading, many hospitals no longer have ICU beds.  They are taking over other wings of the hospitals with COVID patients and forcing other "less urgent" patients out of getting the care they need.  So, the mortality rate of those patients is now intertwined with the COVID response (although won't be in any data).
 
Let me know where you are getting these admission numbers.  I would be interested in seeing.  Hopefully they are peaked.  From the sounds of Trump's medical team, they are still 2 weeks out.


Gov Cuomo I believe provides them in his daily press briefings.

Also on official NYC and NYS daily updates on their respective websites.

Trump’s medical team is using a 6 day old model that has already shown it is incredibly off in its projections on just about everything.

I gotta tap outta this conversation. The data is there for all who wish to see what’s really happening vs the projections of models used by politicians and media to create panic and fear beyond rational caution and concern.

As I’ve said all along, this is serious, especially in NYC and probably will be in other major metropolitan areas before it’s all over. I haven’t heard or read anything from anyone that doesn’t say it’s serious.

I’ve been doing the social distancing other than needed grocery store trips. I encourage others to follow the guidelines. I’m doing what I can to help and serve others who can’t help themselves right now. Praying for those impacted and those on the front lines in the fight. Lots of good things happening in our communities and around the world for those who want to see it.

I’ll be reading other threads and be glad to talk through PM but I’m out on this one.
post edited by rsquared - 2020/04/01 19:53:02
LDD
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 19:47:14 (permalink)
The response needs to be nationalized. What are we waiting for?
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 20:06:50 (permalink)
DarDys
Yeah, NYC was NYC.

Look at the graph presented yesterday and remove NY and NJ. Things would have looked semi normal in the next few weeks. More so if they didn’t escape to other states.

When two states have more cases and deaths than the other 48 combined, that is a localized problem, not a national one. Of course, by trying to escape, they exasperated the national problem.

I do believe NYC was already called the "next epicenter" when Trump announced the couple of week thing.  There were also cases in every major metro area at the time, as well as most medium/small cities, some with 100 or more.  Tighter and tighter restrictions everywhere.  Which is why I was so confused by him saying this?  Especially while being a week into his 15 day suppression, which seemed to be agreed by all, was just a start.  I still don't understand why he would do this and find it still to be extremely dangerous.  His message has not been clear from the beginning of this.  Which I can understand why Florida and others are late to follow.  It was his message for the longest time, that this is nothing, then something, then nothing, then something...
 
I agree that there are some trying to escape NYC, as evident by Florida and others telling them no.  But, from what the experts say, it is roughly 14 days from the time someone becomes infected, to the point they are seeking medical attention (and become that infected data that we see).  We are a week after Trump announced "a couple of weeks".  Every major metro area now, has a few hundred cases and multiple deaths, some many more.  Most medium sized cities have as much as many major metro areas.

So, if everything was looking good when announced "a couple of weeks", then obviously, no one was already making the great escape from NYC right?  And if they were, they wouldn't be affecting anyone to the level of seeing medical attention at this point yet.  So, it is pretty safe to say that the spread ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTRY, has nothing or very little to do with those escaping NYC...  I can agree if you were just noting that it could be exasperating the FURTHER spread in areas that already had cases or possibly being the first case in an isolated area.
 
For those with Netflix, watch the Pandemic documentary.  Kind of eerie that it opens up in Butler County, PA...  It is kind of eerie too that they had that documentary filmed and ready to role, right as this thing happened.  But when you watch it, many have been expecting this or similar for a long time.
 
JM2
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 21:06:15 (permalink)
MyWar
DarDys
 
Yeah, NYC was NYC. 
 
Look at the graph presented yesterday and remove NY and NJ. Things would have looked semi normal in the next few weeks. More so if they didn’t escape to other states. 
 
When two states have more cases and deaths than the other 48 combined, that is a localized problem, not a national one. Of course, by trying to escape, they exasperated the national problem.

 
And here we have the conservatives blaming the cities. Did I not predict this?

 
No, you did not predict this. Your post specifically mentions Trump and cities, not conservatives and states. Trump is not actually a conservative, though he does appeal to many conservatives through many of this actions and policies.
 
You’re taking credit for making an actuate prediction, with a prediction you made that was not accurate. You are more like Trump than you know. 
 
BTW, it appears some of  the Dems that run some of these cities and states did fail their citizens, and should not get a pass. There will be time later to expose these failings, but for now you can just blame Trump for everything.
 
Here’s your prediction.
 
MyWar
Porktown
As long as most highly populated areas are on partial lockdown, so is our economy. 

 
You know what’s coming next? Trump is gonna start ratcheting up the rhetoric to turn his red rural base against the blue population centers. Blaming the “dirty filthy” cities for not being able to take care of sick people and holding the economy back. You watch. He’s gonna blame the democrats in the cities where the outbreaks are concentrated.

MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 21:12:46 (permalink)
Tues 4/1

Nationally
186,101 cases / 3,603 deaths 
Those numbers were as of noon today on the CDC website, but abc is reporting as of 7:45 pm that we have topped 213,000 cases in the US and 4,757 people have died. So thats how quickly the numbers are jumping at this point. 
 
Locally:
5,805 cases / 74 deaths (PA statewide)
356 cases /  2 deaths (Allegheny Co) 
Louisiana:
6,424 cases / 273 deaths (LA statewide)
2,270 cases / 115 deaths (New Orleans city)
New Orleans convention center has 2,000 beds for coronavirus patients who are no longer need to be in hospitals.
 
Florida
7,800 cases / 101 deaths
Might as well track Florida too since Desantis put it in lockdown today and I'm curious to see how if they follow national trends. They could hit 3,000 deaths in two weeks.
 
 
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 21:39:34 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby crappiefisher 2020/04/01 23:26:14
rsquared
I gotta tap outta this conversation. The data is there for all who wish to see what’s really happening vs the projections of models used by politicians and media to create panic and fear beyond rational caution and concern.



I don't know what kind of analysis you are doing, but if the numbers you are feeding your models are inaccurate, then the results will be inaccurate. Fauci and all of the doctors and epidemiologists have been pretty clear about the fact that they don't know exactly how quickly the suppression strategy will affect the curve, so I'm not sure how you have managed to solve this statistical mystery when they could not. And when you have a body count that is doubling every three days, then that means that a jump from 50,000 to 100,000 or 100,000 to 200,000 is going to be very hard to pinpoint. I think its way too early to suggest we are out of the woods.
 
 
 
BeenThereDoneThat.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 03:58:43 (permalink)
MyWar


And here we have the conservatives blaming the cities. Did I not predict this?


Predictable and again proven to be a liar.


MyLiar you are very predictable. Your hope for Trump to fail is so strong, you wish sickness and misfortune upon others.

Posting stats gleaned from the internet, in the manner which you do, it is obvious your intent is to show Trump as a failure.

Your post above, wreaks of panic because you can not defend your rhetoric of doom and gloom then pin it on Trump.

I must admit it's a bit concerning, the research I've done over the internet being proven correct, everytime I read a post of yours. MyLiar, Schadenfreude is a complex emotion, where rather than feeling sympathy towards someone's misfortune, schadenfreude evokes joyful feelings that take pleasure from watching someone fail.

Seek professional help.
post edited by BeenThereDoneThat. - 2020/04/02 04:10:58

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eyesandgillz
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 10:59:49 (permalink)
If ya'll paid attention yesterday to Dr. Birx, this is what will eventually get us over the hump with this thing, once this initial wave of infections finally flattens out (in addition to an effective vaccine and effective treatments). 
 
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/serological-tests-reveal-immune-coronavirus/
 
 
There will be a VERY large segment of the world population that had this and never knew it (either no symptoms or minor cold like symptoms) or thought they had it but symptoms weren't severe enough to be tested (due to lack of tests and/or treatment wouldn't have changed anyway) and were told to just quarantine at home until the virus ran its course. 
 
This testing will be important as it can help with some treatments that have shown good results (Convalescent therapy).  See these articles for info : * the second article references the study shown in the first, plus an additional study with 10 different patients.  Hopefully there will be studies published soon from here in the US so the information/results can be shown to be repeatable and more importantly, trustworthy. 
 
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763983 
 
 https://www.healio.com/hematology-oncology/hematology/news/online/%7B75453a03-ea98-4c57-8b50-7997853beabe%7D/convalescent-plasma-transfusion-shows-promise-for-severely-ill-patients-with-covid-19
 
More promising news on the vaccine front, and homegrown to boot, right here in PGH:
https://triblive.com/local/pittsburgh-allegheny/pittsburgh-scientists-say-coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-fast-tracked-after-key-animal-testing/
post edited by eyesandgillz - 2020/04/02 11:10:21
BeenThereDoneThat.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 11:37:55 (permalink)
Eyes thanks for posting the links. Certainly paints a picture of hope.

Unfortunately, they are still talking long term before the vaccine is available.

I do however love the method developed using sugar spikes to administer the vaccine and it would be terrific if the same can be used with other vaccines in the future.

Heard a song somewhere, something about a spoon full of sugar helps the medicine go down.... or sumpthin like that.

I remember the days of the "small pox" vaccinations" along with other treatments.

Students lining up and entering the cafeteria when it wasn't lunch time, and what they was serving up was in long pointy things with plungers.

Come to think of it, those folks were dressed in painters suits too. Though a bit different fashion back then.

Be well, stay safe, think positive.

Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you will feed him for a life time. ~Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie (1837–1919)~
 
 
 
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Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 11:46:46 (permalink)
That would be great if they can roll out those tests in mass quantities and try to get as many people tested as possible.  It will be interesting to see how many have had it and not know.
 
The Sciencemag site that I have been reading a lot on as of late, seemed to be the most optimistic of the plasma.  That seemed to have the best results in Ebola, SARS and MERS.
 
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 11:55:53 (permalink)
I wonder if the military will be using vaccines before they go through all trials?  It is concerning what is going on with the Naval ships.  This virus spreads like wildfire on those ships.
 
On a similar, but different note with that cruise ship in Florida.  Who in their right mind boarded a cruise ship in the past month???  Seriously, after those in Japan and California, do you seriously have a death wish?  This virus seems as focused in on cruise ships as tornadoes are on trailer parks...
 
r3g3
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 11:59:59 (permalink)
Kinda think that all the conversation and numbers to date will pale in comparison to the next few weeks.
Hope to be wrong.
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 12:13:08 (permalink)
r3g3
Kinda think that all the conversation and numbers to date will pale in comparison to the next few weeks.
Hope to be wrong.


Hope you are wrong too, but it seems that all of the data is suggesting what you are saying.
 
Unfortunately, with the death toll in NYC, it isn't looking like they found a cure in the malaria drugs they have been using in NY the past week.  Hopefully it is saving some lives, but doesn't appear to be a cure all.  Got to hope more and more survivors are donating blood for the plasma treatments.
 
 
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 12:28:39 (permalink)
Porktown, you left out that other cruise ship that was allowed to unload in New Jersery, (what was it, 5-6 weeks ago?) without any questions when it was already well known about the virus and already quite a few deaths in Washington and Italy (and Spain) on the continent. I was sayin' then that it was a major faux pas to let that ship unload without any screening. I think N.J & N.Y. are really payin' the price for that.
The carrier Abraham Lincoln is docked at Guam while they're gonna take off about 1000 personnel and isolate them in a tent city. The captain of the Lincoln wanted every single crewman quarrantined. Ain't gonna happen. That carrier may have to move on a minutes notice. Thing about that carrier is that it's much tighter than a cruise ship, which makes it a much better incubator. The proximity of the crew on the carrier literally guarantees contagion.

For Liberals, whenever reality conflicts with ideology, it is reality that must change.
BeenThereDoneThat.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 12:55:50 (permalink)
Let's not forget the age factor of our military personnel as well as underlying health issues.

Also take into consideration, people having contracted the virus, experienced different symptoms.

Just some FFT as some paint pictures of doom & gloom.

quote

Conclusion. CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza





Keep in mind several flu vaccines were available during 2018-19 flu sesson.
post edited by BeenThereDoneThat. - 2020/04/02 13:05:34

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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 13:03:22 (permalink)
Emitch, just one small correction, it is the Roosevelt, not the Lincoln, in Guam.  Probably doesn't affect any of us at all, unless someone we know/love is currently on one or the other!
 
News first emergency use approval by FDA for an antibody test:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/fda-authorizes-first-coronavirus-antibody-test/ar-BB124RL8
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 13:27:04 (permalink)
Scary to think if more people were not getting vaccinated from the flu, right?  It would rip through this country like no other.  We'd be looking at millions of deaths every year from the flu without the majority of people getting vaccinated.  Then an addition 1-2 million per year with this corona virus, if we didn't shut things down.  That is what science tells us, not doom and gloom.  Millions of deaths might be exaggerating, but it would be a lot more pressure on our health system.  I don't think anyone could really tell how much years of vaccination accumulated in our population would help fight off the flu compared to no vaccinations, since it mutates every year, and the vaccine and our own immunity don't always work against the mutations.
 
I don't think anyone wants to shut things down like we are, besides maybe Putin or our other adversaries.  It would be doom and gloom if we weren't taking these steps.  I think NYC is showing that right now.  Look up Albany, GA for a rural example.  Just think if we added 10 times as many flu patients as well.
 
So yes, this very similar to the flu, if there weren't a flu vaccine.  For those not getting the available flu vaccine, maybe think about the rest of society when you make that choice.  
 
post edited by Porktown - 2020/04/02 13:33:52
JM2
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 13:35:44 (permalink)
BeenThereDoneThat.

Conclusion. CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza


It will be interesting to see if the number of deaths contributed to influenza decreases significantly this season. Would also be interested to see if there is a decrease in deaths caused the same underlaying conditions that places people in the high risk covid category.
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 14:07:39 (permalink)
So Kemp finally issues a stay at home order for Georgia yesterday, and he says the reason he waited so long is because they didn’t know that the virus could be transmitted by asymptomatic people.

How many of you have been aware of this for at least the last several weeks?
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 14:12:22 (permalink)
The headquarters of the CDC is actually in Georgia.
ICE NUT
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 14:35:35 (permalink)
A side note on testing.Just because you can get a negative test result does not mean you don't have the virus.There are many false negatives with the test you can be sent home after that thinking your ok then wham infect everyone around you!! They have rushed these tests very quickly not really knowing the accuracy of them.Im no expert but in my working life as a medical technologist in a large hospital lab the flu test that first came out had the same problems im sure they are better now.Other factors also determine the results like the quality of the sample taken,and a final word on the abbott test its a one test machine takes 15 minutes to 45 minutes,its not going to be a savior when hundreds of thousands of tests need done. Again I am not an expert on this been out of it for 9 years now just thought id throw it out there.
JM2
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 14:35:50 (permalink)
MyWar
So Kemp finally issues a stay at home order for Georgia yesterday, and he says the reason he waited so long is because they didn’t know that the virus could be transmitted by asymptomatic people.

How many of you have been aware of this for at least the last several weeks?



Do you have a source or link showing what he actually said, or do you expect us to just believe your spin again.  Thanks
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 14:45:40 (permalink)
I haven’t figured out how to link on mobile but try googling “kemp corona virus”. It’s being widely reported.

https://thehill.com/homen...ic-people-could-spread
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 14:46:48 (permalink)
So I guess links do work on mobile?
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 15:05:41 (permalink)
Link worked, thanks.  
 
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 15:12:04 (permalink)
ICE NUT
A side note on testing.Just because you can get a negative test result does not mean you don't have the virus.There are many false negatives with the test you can be sent home after that thinking your ok then wham infect everyone around you!! They have rushed these tests very quickly not really knowing the accuracy of them.Im no expert but in my working life as a medical technologist in a large hospital lab the flu test that first came out had the same problems im sure they are better now.Other factors also determine the results like the quality of the sample taken,and a final word on the abbott test its a one test machine takes 15 minutes to 45 minutes,its not going to be a savior when hundreds of thousands of tests need done. Again I am not an expert on this been out of it for 9 years now just thought id throw it out there.




Based on the article I read on it, many of the Coronavirus tests being used are 70% accurate in detecting positives, ie, 30% false negatives.  Pretty high number but to be expected for how quickly they were pushed out....and likely the same across the world. 
 
Hopefully the labs that developed the initial tests are still working on them to improve their accuracy.
 
As bad as those #'s are, the tests Russia was using initially were only 25-30% accurate.  They required a very high viral load to record a positive test.  
 
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/questions-about-accuracy-of-coronavirus-tests-sow-worry/ar-BB124KXh?li=BBnb7Kz
ICE NUT
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 15:27:20 (permalink)
The positives are always positive its the negatives that are the problem your sent home to infect everyone around you.The positives are admitted and isolated from everyone.So if 30% are false negative that's a huge problem with hundreds of thousands of tests being done.
JM2
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/02 15:37:53 (permalink)
MyWar
I haven’t figured out how to link on mobile but try googling “kemp corona virus”. It’s being widely reported.

https://thehill.com/homen...ic-people-could-spread



Thanks, That is somewhat amazing and baffling.
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