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MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/31 20:21:05 (permalink)
rsquared
MyWar

 
The projection was 200,000 cases and 2,000 deaths.




The initial projection was 250 million plus infections and 2.2 million deaths.

Fauci and Birx are now on 100-200 K deaths and around 80 million infections as of yesterday and today.

If, as everybody is now saying, the worst is yet to come in two weeks that would logically mean that most of our country’s more stringent lockdown measures initiated a surge in infections and deaths, since most lockdowns started 10-14 days ago.



I meant my projection from a post last week on what the numbers might look like today. I wasn't referring to total infections or Fauci's projection. Sorry if that was unclear. 
 
 
On related note, here is a link to a summary of a recent study from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, which projects the impact of the COVID-19 virus on Pennsylvania between now and August 1, 2020.
 
Some key points:
 
3,000+ deaths projected in PA by Aug 1
Deaths from COVID-19 per day will peak at 109 on April 16 and will gradually decline after that point.
When the heaviest stress on our healthcare system occurs in mid-April, approximately 1,417 ICU beds will be required which is 438 more than are available in the state.
Rate of increase in new cases has declined, but is still 23% per day
The effects of closures and social distancing are still largely unknown, so we don't yet know how quickly the virus is spreading now that the measures are in place. 
BeenThereDoneThat.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/31 20:23:18 (permalink)
MyWar
r3g3
Wonder what NY city would be like if its Mayor had got with the program of school closings and social distancing when every one else did instead of sitting on his hands screaming about Trump.
Heard the subway is still open-

 
Here is a pretty harsh piece from The Week comparing the Cuomo/Diblasio response to Jay Inslee's response in Washington. The Week is pretty left-leaning, but the Trump bashing is kept to a minimum in this article. Washington was looking like an outbreak hotspot early in the game, and Inslee tamped that sh1t down. For that he deserves credit.
 
 
r3g3
Unfortunately NYC is affecting  folks way beyond its own borders now-

 
So is New Orleans. Its believed that the virus spread during Mardi Gras, which probably should have been cancelled. 
 
I have no problem with criticizing Cuomo and Diblasio (if that piece I linked above is accurate, they deserve it), but Louisiana? I dunno, I don't hold them to the same standards. Those state governments simply don't have access to the same resources and information that the governor of New York state and the mayor of New York city does. The same goes for states like Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, etc all of which are probably going to be impacted by the LA outbreak. Those small, poorer states rely upon the federal government and federal agencies like the CDC to provide guidance in situations like this. The CDC and the federal government failed them. I don't know how you can interpret it any other way.


MyLiar you have told so many lies, to so many people, so many times, you don't know what you said to who, when.

MyLiar you relish in the failure of others.

Problem is, failure doesn't exist the way in which you hope for, so you fabricate lies and inuendos.

MyLiar you cherish the moment when a new discussion comes about so you can spin the information to fit your agenda.

There are people on this board who agree your President has his faults. From & by your words, you dream of your president's failure.

You have been proven to be a liar time and time again.



You obviously rely heavily on the internet to support your negative attitude therefore, you should have absolutely no problem believing the following information. Link included to assure you the info is infact, from the internet.

Q: Why do people want you to fail?


A: The explanation is very simple. When those people see you succeeding on any scale they feel like failures because they know they haven't made any success. ... The simple answer is: Those people are cowards, they feel insecure, they know they can't make it and so they can only feel good by seeing others failing.

https://www.2knowmyself.c...eople_want_you_to_fail

Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you will feed him for a life time. ~Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie (1837–1919)~
 
 
 
  Old fisherman never die; we just smell that way. 
 
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/31 20:23:37 (permalink)
rsquared
MyWar

 
The projection was 200,000 cases and 2,000 deaths.




The initial projection was 250 million plus infections and 2.2 million deaths.

Fauci and Birx are now on 100-200 K deaths and around 80 million infections as of yesterday and today.



Also, that projection of 2.2 million deaths was if no measures were taken. If you haven't read the Medium article, it is worth a look and lays out all of the different projection scenarios.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/31 21:13:57 (permalink)
CAPTAIN HOOK
I have no reason to be a "trump thumper" ..no wishing failure either ...he does all the talking without my comments ...I posted what he said to America.....I actually find it sickening to think people would wish a killing virus upon people over a stupid presidential seat ! I just don't appreciate someone's constant lying to try and make themselves look good at the costs of American lives.
 
Quit putting words in peoples mouth that they didn't say ...print my quotes not what you think  I meant !  Quit assuming ....read what is said .
 
 
 
 


I agree Capt, read what was said, stop putting words in peoples mouths.

Sure is easy to take somebody's words out of context, especially when reading words by others and not hearing the actual speaker.

Thank you for clearing that up, I stand corrected.

Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you will feed him for a life time. ~Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie (1837–1919)~
 
 
 
  Old fisherman never die; we just smell that way. 
 
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/31 21:26:29 (permalink)
It’$ not too $urprising that Dr. Birx would like the model from the Univer$ity of Wa$hington.

Which by the way when it was first published 3
days ago was only off by 15K in its estimate of how many hospital beds would be needed in the US today for COVID patients. Good thing they can adjust it every day and make this up as we go along.

A lot of the assumptions in the Birx/Fauci recent projections of deaths are based on what’s happening in NY and NJ, which is far different from what’s happening in the rest of the US in terms of deaths per 100K people in the population.
post edited by rsquared - 2020/03/31 23:42:17
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/31 23:50:47 (permalink)
NYC slowing considerably in hospital admissions, one of the best variables to measure since it’s live data and no guessing, since so many questions abound about testing rates and even accuracy

Last week new cases doubling every 2.5 days

Sunday, doubling rate was down to 6 days

Now down to doubling every 8 days.

Deaths could certainly spike as those already hospitalized May get worse. But maybe we’ll start seeing breakthroughs with the new drug combos the FDA has approved

Interesting news out of Italy this evening:

"On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 percent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus"

-Professor Ricciardi, scientific advisor to Italy Health Minister
post edited by rsquared - 2020/03/31 23:58:46
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 10:59:23 (permalink)
rsquared
A lot of the assumptions in the Birx/Fauci recent projections of deaths are based on what’s happening in NY and NJ, which is far different from what’s happening in the rest of the US in terms of deaths per 100K people in the population.


I feel like many of you keep ignoring the fact that the worst case scenario projections were based the assumption of little to no containment efforts.

So you are actually seeing that play out in real time: in areas where containment measures were enacted too little/too late (like NYC and Jersey) the infection rates are worse and more people are dying; In areas where aggressive containment went into effect early in the game (like western PA) you are seeing better results.

Do you think that what is happening in NYC and Jersey would not eventually happen everywhere if suppression efforts weren’t made?

Florida and Texas have STILL not enacted suppression measures so it looks like we may find out.
bigfoot
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 11:02:06 (permalink)
JM2
If you want to trust Snopes on this, here you go. Some like to pick and choose on want, and when they trust sources.
 
https://www.snopes.com/fa...onavirus-rally-remark/
 
here's another.
 
https://www.politifact.co...rumps-words-coronavir/


As I stated before to the people who believe that the President called the virus a Democratic hoax, please check out the above links, especially the second one, to find out exactly in what context he used the phrase.
 
 
 

"The cause of freedom is not the cause of race or a sect, a party or a class-it is the cause of human kind, the very birthright of humanity."Quote by Anna Julia Cooper.
 
r3g3
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 11:06:11 (permalink)
More of ya cant make this stuff up--
 
Mullahs in the sand telling worshipers to attend Mosque services as going there is all that can save them.
Oh yea its all the Americans fault too.
 
Church leaders in NyC and lawyers going nuts as Deblasio says they should stop services and basically close up or the Police may close them.
 
In a town near me the teachers had a car parade a day or so back- photos in the press show groups of people standing very close to each other on sidewalks watching.
 
 
Sooooo people both near and far finding reasons not to social distance-that can hurt us all---idiots all.
 
Actually starting to take some of this kinda personal as these self centered azz  hats can spread a disease that can kill ME.
 
post edited by r3g3 - 2020/04/01 11:10:50
r3g3
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 11:15:52 (permalink)
When showing the infection  stats yesterday they made in real clear that Cal and Washington state had lower infections than NYC  and also had social distancing and  closures much earlier.
They gave full credit to those measures starting early.
Cant find fault by Monday Morning quarterbacking -but -lessons learned.
Not a poitical thing either as all 3 are Dem controlled.
post edited by r3g3 - 2020/04/01 11:42:44
eyesandgillz
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 12:57:14 (permalink)
Anyone have Ohios numbers for infections and deaths?  There were one of the first to start the lockdown before they were "known" to be highly infected.....be interesting to see their results.
PA, overall, has been doing fairly well, I think but time will tell.  When the weather gets better, there will be more temptation to get outside and do something, anything, other than watch the doomsday news reports and troll each other on msg forums.
 
https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/
 
As of 3/31/2020:  2,199 cases, 55 deaths
 
https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Coronavirus.aspx
 
As of 4/1/2020: 5,805 cases, 63 deaths as of noon yesterday...
post edited by eyesandgillz - 2020/04/01 13:06:26
bigfoot
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 13:14:56 (permalink)
r3g3
More of ya cant make this stuff up--
 
Mullahs in the sand telling worshipers to attend Mosque services as going there is all that can save them.
Oh yea its all the Americans fault too.
 
Church leaders in NyC and lawyers going nuts as Deblasio says they should stop services and basically close up or the Police may close them.
 
In a town near me the teachers had a car parade a day or so back- photos in the press show groups of people standing very close to each other on sidewalks watching.
 
 
Sooooo people both near and far finding reasons not to social distance-that can hurt us all---idiots all.
 
Actually starting to take some of this kinda personal as these self centered azz  hats can spread a disease that can kill ME.
 


Agree. Front page photo in Johnstown PA paper The tribune- Democrat Thursday March 26, shows a group, key word here "GROUP" of people lined up for a free meal at ST. Vincent de Paul soup kitchen in downtown Johnstown. They keep that up, might be their last meal.

"The cause of freedom is not the cause of race or a sect, a party or a class-it is the cause of human kind, the very birthright of humanity."Quote by Anna Julia Cooper.
 
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 13:22:30 (permalink)
MyWar


I feel like many of you keep ignoring the fact that the worst case scenario projections were based the assumption of little to no containment efforts.




From the New York Times:
 
The top government scientists battling the coronavirus estimated on Tuesday that the deadly pathogen could kill 100,000 to 240,000 Americans as it ravages the country despite social distancing measures that have closed schools, banned large gatherings, limited travel and forced people to stay in their homes.
 
DESPITE social distancing measures . . . 100-240K.  That is NOT without doing nothing.  That is with what we're doing now.  
 
I know Fauci said basically, "Don't hold me to that," initially over the weekend, but he doubled down on it Monday and Tuesday.  That's his number, with the current measures and the current situation.  
 
Dr. Deborah L. Birx, who is coordinating the coronavirus response, displayed that grim projection at a White House briefing, calling it “our real number” but pledging to do everything possible to reduce it.
 
Our real number . . . as in, this is what we'll see if we continue to keep doing everything that we're currently doing.  We'll need to lock down even more to reduce it.  
 
New York state has just under 2,000 total deaths from this right now, which is about half of the US total.  With the data trends the past 3 days in declining new hospital admissions and positive tests, this projects to about 3,500 to 4,000 deaths in New York.  But let's say something goes sideways, and New York has 7,000 deaths.  
 
 
To get to the 100K death total in the US, and again that Birx and Fauci say will happen if we keep doing what we're doing, there would need to be 14 other New Yorks.  To get to 250K, there would need to be almost 36 other New Yorks.  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
r3g3
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 13:31:42 (permalink)
To some degree I think they are talking about people who have it now passing after some time in the next couple of weeks and/or those who are about to get it.
The decline= if it follows the samples from other places may--may-- happen after the big numbers.
 
OK-- HERE WE GO=Iran blames the US for the disease and now is planning to attack our troops over there.
YEP --keep their followers looking someplace else and for somebody to blame.
YIPEE for the leaders for taking action against the bad disease causing US.
Trump got a briefing on it today and told them how its will be if they go forward.
 
Guess someone with no moral standards hadda start something while the world is distracted.
post edited by r3g3 - 2020/04/01 13:40:17
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 13:53:32 (permalink)
r3g3
To some degree I think they are talking about people who have it now passing after some time in the next couple of weeks and/or those who are about to get it.
The decline= if it follows the samples from other places may--may-- happen after the big numbers.



Of course we're probably going to see some more big numbers.  Louisiana being among them.  Probably Texas and other Gulf Coast states that were slow to enact social distancing.  
 
New York was late to the game as well, and the big surge over the past 2 weeks is the result of that.  You're in CT, so you're seeing that up close and personal.  
 
I really don't like most of Gov. Wolf's politics, but to his credit, his swift action in PA has really seemingly benefitted us from becoming NY, NJ or CT.  
 
The million dollar question right now is this: Are there 15-30 other New Yorks out there right now?  
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 14:41:29 (permalink)
I’ll agree that Wolf’s actions helped a lot with regard to the spread. But as with anything, there are unintentional consequences.

My wife, who suffers from back issues, had her epidural shot cancelled for tomorrow because that is considered “elective,” but the beer distributors are open because they are “essential.”

A coworker’s husband works for a medical device manufacturer that actually makes probes that Bluetooth connect to tablets do that vitals, including temperature, that are used at the drive through checks for the virus. His plant was in the process of adding 20,000 sf of additional manufacturing space (and 60 jobs) for those devices and needed about 3 more weeks of finish construction to be operational, but their contractor got shut down with all other contractors and had to stop, yet my lawnmower repair guy, the lawn fertilizer business up the street, and the mulch and stone business a mile away are open because they are essential.

Of course, those closed businesses can apply for a waiver. All that takes is time and some unelected career government bureaucrat to make the change.

The poster formally known as Duncsdad

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MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 14:49:10 (permalink)
rsquared
New York state has just under 2,000 total deaths from this right now, which is about half of the US total.  With the data trends the past 3 days in declining new hospital admissions and positive tests, this projects to about 3,500 to 4,000 deaths in New York.  


I’m not sure how you are calculating that number for New York.

Testing may or may not be providing an accurate picture of new infections right now. It’s very possible that testing capability is not keeping up with new infection rates, so new positive tests aren’t currently the best metric to rely on. You might be right about hospital admissions, that could be a better indicator, and it’s certainly an encouraging sign.

But for now, what we do know is that we are still in a pattern where the number of deaths doubles every three days. So today 4/1 it’s 3,600 nationwide. Double it every three days, and you are over 100,000 nationwide by 4/16.

The next two weeks are looking to be absolutely critical. It’s where the numbers could start to spin tragically out of control into a six figure body count, or we could be at a point where the effect of aggressive suppression strategies start to kick in and deaths will start to slow down. Nobody knows yet tho.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 15:19:39 (permalink)
Just saw on MSN that Wolf has shut down all counties.

The poster formally known as Duncsdad

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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 15:36:12 (permalink)
rsquared
NYC slowing considerably in hospital admissions, one of the best variables to measure since it’s live data and no guessing, since so many questions abound about testing rates and even accuracy

Last week new cases doubling every 2.5 days

Sunday, doubling rate was down to 6 days

Now down to doubling every 8 days.

Deaths could certainly spike as those already hospitalized May get worse. But maybe we’ll start seeing breakthroughs with the new drug combos the FDA has approved

Interesting news out of Italy this evening:

"On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 percent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus"

-Professor Ricciardi, scientific advisor to Italy Health Minister

Not sure how they are doubling cases every 8 days and declining admissions?  Unless you are referring to something else, noting that admissions are going down?
 
It is a lot easier to double 200 than it is to double 1000.  They might be slowing the rate of exponential growth, but that doesn't really indicate decline?  If admissions were declining, I am not sure anyone would still be using the term doubling?
 
Not saying that it isn't declining, if that is what the hospitals are noting.  I have not seen that myself.  I am just going off of what you have written here and doesn't seem to add up.
post edited by Porktown - 2020/04/01 15:43:57
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 15:43:54 (permalink)
I would not rely much on positive test numbers or hospital admissions... as this ramps up I would expect that people who would have been tested a week ago or admitted to hospitals may now be expected to stay home and not even be tested (unless test availability improves more) because the hospital resources really have to be rationed for the sickest and highest risk patients. Triage for available resources may skew numbers for a while.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 15:48:29 (permalink)
Think its gonna get real nasty and scarey out there pretty quick.
Those doctors with T yesterday weren't pulling punches and the numbers were awful.
As an over 70 with issues its concerning- to say the least.
Give those Dem Govs credit as well as Trump - for the most part they are taking politics right out of this . 
Gets a bit testy when they each understandably want more stuff for their own state but generally all seems fair .
Wish some in the press were as smart- aint the time for BS.
 
Hope they tell Adam Schiff to shut up and get off his horse- nobody wants him politicizing anything now- dope.
Knew he would do something sooner or later to get his ugly photo in the news.
Am sure Nancy will chime in  too-
Two self centered idiots.
post edited by r3g3 - 2020/04/01 15:56:48
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 15:57:25 (permalink)
DeSantis FINALLY locks down Florida, thank god.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 16:50:23 (permalink)
Can anyone explain what happened from 3/23, where things were to be back to normal in a couple of weeks.  To 3/27, where it is announced that at a minimum, 100K will die from this?  
 
 
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 17:37:43 (permalink)
Porktown

Not sure how they are doubling cases every 8 days and declining admissions?  Unless you are referring to something else, noting that admissions are going down?
 
It is a lot easier to double 200 than it is to double 1000.  They might be slowing the rate of exponential growth, but that doesn't really indicate decline?  If admissions were declining, I am not sure anyone would still be using the term doubling?
 
Not saying that it isn't declining, if that is what the hospitals are noting.  I have not seen that myself.  I am just going off of what you have written here and doesn't seem to add up.




 
Yeah, how I wrote that is confusing.  
 
So I've been tracking with a handful of data/stats nerds who look primarily at New York and New York City, since it is the US epicenter, and a lot of policy decisions from the feds to states are being made based on data from there.  They are pulling data straight from NYC and NYS that is made public every day and updated every day.
 
They point out that hospital admissions are a good stat to look at, as they tend to provide a statistic in all of this that does a few things.  It's objective.  Either a person is admitted for COVID or they're not.  It is also a good barometer of how serious confirmed cases are.  
 
Obviously, a person can test positive, but be
 
1.  Asymptomatic (not likely, since they're not likely to meet a lot of the testing criteria, unless they're a celebrity or pro athlete)
 
2.  Mildly to moderately symptomatic, but can provide self care at home.
 
3.  Symptomatic to the point of requiring hospitalization.  
 
Declining hospital admissions in a hot zone like NYC over a period of 4 days can be seen as a positive indicator that the curve is flattening or even declining.  Obviously, current admissions can drive the total death number up as they worsen.  Keep in mind that NYC has right around 25% of all US deaths from COVID.  I saw data today that said deaths from residents of Queens alone are 10% of the US death total right now.  
 
The University of Washington model that is the basis for federal recommendations this week, estimated just 6 days ago that New York would require 50K hospital beds today.  Cuomo released info this afternoon that there are currently 12K hospitalized with COVID in the state. 
 
The doubling rate of infection in New York City is obviously another variable altogether, that is dependent on the number of tests being done.  But the doubling rate (number of days for cases to double) is dropping.  Another mildly encouraging sign in this, at least for NYC, and what the rest of the country might need to prepare for.  
 
 
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 17:43:19 (permalink)
Porktown
Can anyone explain what happened from 3/23, where things were to be back to normal in a couple of weeks.  To 3/27, where it is announced that at a minimum, 100K will die from this?  
 



University of Washington model that came out 6 days ago.  Estimated 100-240K US deaths with current measures in place.  This is what Fauci and Birx are going on now.  
 
Trump is listening to them this week at least.  
 
In my post above ^ this was the model that projected 4X's higher number of hospital beds for COVID patients for New York today than was actually needed.  That was their projection 6 days ago.  This is a fluid and changing model, and I believe it's updated daily.  But this is the basis for the shift in federal recommendations.  
 
 
 
 
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 17:45:37 (permalink)
Porktown
Can anyone explain what happened from 3/23, where things were to be back to normal in a couple of weeks.  To 3/27, where it is announced that at a minimum, 100K will die from this?  
 
 


Yeah, NYC was NYC.

Look at the graph presented yesterday and remove NY and NJ. Things would have looked semi normal in the next few weeks. More so if they didn’t escape to other states.

When two states have more cases and deaths than the other 48 combined, that is a localized problem, not a national one. Of course, by trying to escape, they exasperated the national problem.

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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 17:55:38 (permalink)
The University of Washington model also projected 120K nationwide hospitalizations, 30K in ICU, and 19K on vents for today.  
 
There are 200K confirmed cases.  That would mean 60% of confirmed cases would have to be filling those beds. I believe we're still around 10% hospitalization rate for confirmed cases.  
 
This model is driving our nation's policy decisions right now.   
 
 
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 18:30:59 (permalink)
DarDys
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Can anyone explain what happened from 3/23, where things were to be back to normal in a couple of weeks.  To 3/27, where it is announced that at a minimum, 100K will die from this?  
 
 


Yeah, NYC was NYC.

Look at the graph presented yesterday and remove NY and NJ. Things would have looked semi normal in the next few weeks. More so if they didn’t escape to other states.

When two states have more cases and deaths than the other 48 combined, that is a localized problem, not a national one. Of course, by trying to escape, they exasperated the national problem.


And here we have the conservatives blaming the cities. Did I not predict this?
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 18:32:12 (permalink)
DarDys
Porktown
Can anyone explain what happened from 3/23, where things were to be back to normal in a couple of weeks.  To 3/27, where it is announced that at a minimum, 100K will die from this?  
 
 


Yeah, NYC was NYC.

Look at the graph presented yesterday and remove NY and NJ. Things would have looked semi normal in the next few weeks. More so if they didn’t escape to other states.

When two states have more cases and deaths than the other 48 combined, that is a localized problem, not a national one. Of course, by trying to escape, they exasperated the national problem.


Also, this is total bull5hit btw.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/04/01 18:38:25 (permalink)
DarDys
I’ll agree that Wolf’s actions helped a lot with regard to the spread. But as with anything, there are unintentional consequences.

My wife, who suffers from back issues, had her epidural shot cancelled for tomorrow because that is considered “elective,” but the beer distributors are open because they are “essential.”




 
Sorry to hear about your wife DarDys.  
 
No one ever really considered this one either, in relation to elective and non emergency medical needs.  Medical professionals are being laid off in big numbers right now as well.  Think of the private PCP offices that serve underserved communities across the country.  They'll be shuttered if they can't have an income for a month or more.  
 
Hoo boy, I just started digging in a little bit last night to some reading about deaths of despair from poverty, and economic recessions and depressions.  Safe to say these are not from conservative sources/voices.  President Trump asked last week if the cure might be worse than the disease for America.  People on the opposite end of the political spectrum are saying absolutely yes.  
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