Helpful ReplyHot!Coronavirus opinions

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BeenThereDoneThat.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/24 18:19:23 (permalink)
OHHH L👁👁K MyLiar wants to "look at the numbers" when it fits his hate and discontent.

CDC has been saying to expect the numbers of Covid-19 to increase drastically now that testing is being conducted. CDC also warned the numbers would continue to climb over the next few weeks.

Whats most notable about the information provided by the CDC is the way in which the stats are given.... even TidePod MyLiar can understand 'some' of it.

The next miracle will be TidePod MyLiar learning the difference between "internet drugs" and "medical drugs". Unfortunately, long term use of Tide Pod's does have it's side effects.

MyWar

So let's just see what the numbers tell us, shall we? 

Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you will feed him for a life time. ~Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie (1837–1919)~
 
 
 
  Old fisherman never die; we just smell that way. 
 
CAPTAIN HOOK
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/24 18:45:59 (permalink)
As far as a recovery timetable there is none ...plain and simple nobody knows the future . Nice to think about it . Who's next like NY city .....Philadelphia ? Boston ? Daytona ? Miami ?  Your town ?
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/24 18:53:24 (permalink) ☄ Helpfulby crappiefisher 2020/03/24 19:42:33
Some of you are waaaaay over estimating how much testing capability has improved. In Pittsburgh they still aren't even testing people that are symptomatic, they will only test you if you have traveled overseas or been in contact with known infected. Testing capability is still grossly inadequate so I doubt its inflating the numbers much at this point. It also takes 5-7 days to get results, so the numbers we are actually seeing are from like a week ago. 
 
Fatality rates should also increase exponentially in proportion to overall cases, you want to track that instead? CDC says 544 deaths as of today, so we should be at around at least 1,000 by Friday, 2,000+ by this time next week, probably about 5,000 by next weekend.
 
If the number of dead people keeps doubling every three days, you guys gonna be all cool with just going back to normal?
EMitch
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/24 19:42:19 (permalink)
Amazinly, this part 3 stimulus package being beaten down by the Democrats is really telling in the fact that just a few days ago, Senator Schumer was very upbeat that the Senate was very close to passage of the Senate bill, and remarked that he was surprised by the acts of bi-partisanship present in the discussion. That is, until Pelosi came back and threw her monkey wrench into the mix. Schumer then changed his tune dang near 180 degrees. It just goes to show that although Schumer may be the Minority Leader in the Senate, he's just dangling on the strings of the puppet master Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and has no real power whatsoever. She's calling the shots and pullin' the strings, and he's doin' the dancing. Can you imagine if the 'Crats retake the Senate this fall? 

For Liberals, whenever reality conflicts with ideology, it is reality that must change.
CRAPPIE_SLAYER
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/24 19:47:07 (permalink)
One of my main concerns for the rural area I live in is travel from those in highly infected populas areas. Gov. of ( insert your state here) can impose all of the shutdowns of non life sustaining businesses they want, but when these people come from the highly populated areas that show much higher rates of infection to hide out in their vacation homes to be safe, they raise the risk factor in my mind. If they can truly carry this virus without knowing, then unwittingly travel to the local store and pass it to countless others while they stock up there "secret hideaway" that is bothersome to me.
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/24 20:11:57 (permalink)
As long as most highly populated areas are on partial lockdown, so is our economy. Doesn’t matter what Trump tries to say about moving forward. Just happens to be where most businesses are, where most airports are and where most money is.
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/24 20:15:37 (permalink)
CRAPPIE_SLAYER
One of my main concerns for the rural area I live in is travel from those in highly infected populas areas. Gov. of ( insert your state here) can impose all of the shutdowns of non life sustaining businesses they want, but when these people come from the highly populated areas that show much higher rates of infection to hide out in their vacation homes to be safe, they raise the risk factor in my mind. If they can truly carry this virus without knowing, then unwittingly travel to the local store and pass it to countless others while they stock up there "secret hideaway" that is bothersome to me.

Wait until “business as usual” and even more from those areas looking to get away for a weekend or day trip. Rural areas will get slammed if the urban folks listen to that message. Stuffed up in their house for weeks. First place they will look is wide open spaces.
post edited by Porktown - 2020/03/24 20:16:44
CRAPPIE_SLAYER
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/24 20:20:06 (permalink)
Porktown
r3g3
Did you folks see the laundry list of permanent social change measures the Dems are trying to tag onto the virus package ?
 

I have not, even when trying to find on Google...  I saw mention of permanent sick leave during the first two phases, but all that I found.  Can you post a link?  Preferably from a national journalistic source.  I don't trust anything from right/left wing internet blogs.


I usually stay away from these political arguments, but just got done reading this. Student loan debt forgiveness, $15/hr minimum wage, and carbon emissions all tacked on.

https://finance.yahoo.com...n-virus-005743928.html
post edited by CRAPPIE_SLAYER - 2020/03/24 20:23:15
MyWar
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/24 20:23:52 (permalink)
Porktown
As long as most highly populated areas are on partial lockdown, so is our economy.


You know what’s coming next? Trump is gonna start ratcheting up the rhetoric to turn his red rural base against the blue population centers. Blaming the “dirty filthy” cities for not being able to take care of sick people and holding the economy back. You watch. He’s gonna blame the democrats in the cities where the outbreaks are concentrated.
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/24 20:36:06 (permalink)
MyWar
Porktown
As long as most highly populated areas are on partial lockdown, so is our economy.


You know what’s coming next? Trump is gonna start ratcheting up the rhetoric to turn his red rural base against the blue population centers. Blaming the “dirty filthy” cities for not being able to take care of sick people and holding the economy back. You watch. He’s gonna blame the democrats in the cities where the outbreaks are concentrated.

I don’t think even Trump is that dumb. The rural voters definitely not that dumb. Urban needs rural and rural needs urban. This virus is hitting the rural areas, maybe not all, but many. Whether by Chinese textile workers or by regular community spread in their family, friends or noted before about others escaping or rural thinking urban is safe before it is (WPA is in rural already). The rural hospitals can’t sustain and would need the urban hospitals, just as the urban needs the rural food as does the rural need the urban money...
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/24 20:49:23 (permalink)
Crappie Slayer. Good article.

Please note. Nothing said beyond good article is directed at you. Just my observation to anyone. If you want to discuss great, but not accusing you of anything.

It is the house proposal, which I have no doubt would be Dem lenient. Just as I am sure it was “perfect legislation” from the Republican only written Senate format (to many on here).

My observation. Senate version is a total Rep hack job. House version is a total Dem hack job. Anyone saying you should spend $1.5T to pass either without negotiation on either a 100% party line written legislation and complaining about the other side, you then are a political hack yourself. It is just how this has to work itself out.
CRAPPIE_SLAYER
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/24 20:55:15 (permalink)
MyWar

You know what’s coming next? Trump is gonna start ratcheting up the rhetoric to turn his red rural base against the blue population centers. Blaming the “dirty filthy” cities for not being able to take care of sick people and holding the economy back. You watch. He’s gonna blame the democrats in the cities where the outbreaks are concentrated.


WOW! It truly is "MyWar" with your own personality for you isn't it?

I knew better than to voice my concerns for the rural folk, but just couldn't resist for once and this guy goes off the political deep end again. Dat dere MyWar sure do be knowin' his stuff. S'pose I'll just go back to eye'n up dat dere sheep case 'Ma ain't bein' in da mood tonight.

See you all on the fishing posts. Tight lines.
BeenThereDoneThat.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/24 20:59:47 (permalink)
FISHTANK MyLiar TIDEPOD

Put your tin hat on and quick like a bunny... jump in your basement.

Social distancing is highly recommended so turn off daddy's computer too.

P.S. Drinking the water or smoking the dried fish remnants from your fish tank is not recommended.

MyWar
Some of you are waaaaay over estimating how much testing capability has improved. In Pittsburgh they still aren't even testing people that are symptomatic, they will only test you if you have traveled overseas or been in contact with known infected. Testing capability is still grossly inadequate so I doubt its inflating the numbers much at this point. It also takes 5-7 days to get results, so the numbers we are actually seeing are from like a week ago. 
 

If the number of dead people keeps doubling every three days, you guys gonna be all cool with just going back to normal?

Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you will feed him for a life time. ~Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie (1837–1919)~
 
 
 
  Old fisherman never die; we just smell that way. 
 
BeenThereDoneThat.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/24 21:04:36 (permalink)
Crappie_Slayer 😝😅😂 baaa ba baaa. (not tonight I got a headache)

😜MG you ain't right.
post edited by BeenThereDoneThat. - 2020/03/24 21:07:40

Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you will feed him for a life time. ~Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie (1837–1919)~
 
 
 
  Old fisherman never die; we just smell that way. 
 
BeenThereDoneThat.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/24 21:20:16 (permalink)
MyWar
Porktown
As long as most highly populated areas are on partial lockdown, so is our economy.


You know what’s coming next? Trump is gonna start ratcheting up the rhetoric to turn his red rural base against the blue population centers. Blaming the “dirty filthy” cities for not being able to take care of sick people and holding the economy back. You watch. He’s gonna blame the democrats in the cities where the outbreaks are concentrated.



I hope the POTUS does go after the likes of Pelosi for letting people live in squalor.

Obviously from your stupid comment above, you are very aware of these horrible conditions those people live in.

Hell the drugs these people are allowed to consume (free needles) have killed thousands up thousands.....

Where ya been on this issue ratchet jaw?

MyLiar the Bigot Troll sticks his foot in his mouth yet another time.


Now quick like a bunny, hop into your basement... the virus cometh.
post edited by BeenThereDoneThat. - 2020/03/24 21:26:58

Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you will feed him for a life time. ~Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie (1837–1919)~
 
 
 
  Old fisherman never die; we just smell that way. 
 
JM2
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/24 22:22:52 (permalink)
MyWar

You know what’s coming next? Trump is gonna start ratcheting up the rhetoric to turn his red rural base against the blue population centers. Blaming the “dirty filthy” cities for not being able to take care of sick people and holding the economy back. You watch. He’s gonna blame the democrats in the cities where the outbreaks are concentrated.



Why would you wait for him to actually say that? Isn't it the normal modus operandi, just to claim he said that, or claim that's what he really meant to say. Dog whistles, more dog whistles to the base. 
Guest
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/24 23:56:32 (permalink)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

Honestly dunno if WSJ is left, right or center. Didn’t check the bona fides of the authors. So don’t know what bias they may have in writing what they did.
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/25 08:31:46 (permalink)
rsquared
https://www.wsj.com/artic...s-they-say-11585088464

Honestly dunno if WSJ is left, right or center. Didn’t check the bona fides of the authors. So don’t know what bias they may have in writing what they did.

I don't have a subscription, so unable to read.
 
No matter what publication, if it is written in their "Opinion" section (which this is), it is most likely an opinion of that author.  Which could be factual, could be all opinion or could be factual information spun to fit their narrative.  Which often is what is in Opinion pieces.  Or, since they are not staff writers, they are in the Opinion section, which this one very well could be.
 
Everyone is entitled to their own opinions.  It is just far to often that people try to back their opinions on this message board, with other's published opinions, in attempt to support their case, as if the publication is a fact.  That is all that I had meant in my comment about the legislation.  Left/Right wing blogs, are 90% opinion based or put major spins on factual data.
 
Below is what I mean by spinning factual data.
i.e.  Something could say, American small business with 0-50 employees will receive $10k per employee.  51-100 employees will receive $9k per employee.  So it could be spun that "A small businesses only received $10k which happened to be a GOP donor, while a Union shop 2 doors down from them received $800k, enough said...".  Technically, it might be factual figures, but spun to fit a narrative.  Honestly, if you look for it when reading, it really isn't all that hard to find.
CAPTAIN HOOK
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/25 08:48:51 (permalink)
Opinions articles like that I have no faith in believing for a second...probably straight out of a Russian hack center hoping Americans would read and challenge sound medical advice . ....and hopefully kill more . Gamblers usually end up loosing in the long run . Just way too many American news people and medical people saying different .    
Guest
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/25 09:19:40 (permalink)
Hmmm ... I was able to read without a subscription but now I can’t.

I’ll try to see if I can get back in and copy and paste some of it.

Both authors are MDs, professors and researchers at Stanford University. Not editors or writers for the Wall Street Journal.

Bottom line - based on statistical analysis from all over the world, if Covid is as virulent/contagious as the WHO claims when this began, and many continue to claim, then it has a lower mortality rate than influenza. If Covid is as deadly as the WHO and others claim, then it is nowhere near as virulent/contagious as claimed.

Still very serious and although not as virulent as WHO claims it obviously spreads and hits very quickly, and can overwhelm healthcare in small areas.
post edited by rsquared - 2020/03/25 09:35:22
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/25 09:27:06 (permalink)
CAPTAIN HOOK
Just way too many American news people and medical people saying different .    

World medical people and actual data from countries that have went through it too...
 
Singapore, which is the 3rd most densely populated country in the World, which is basically a large city (half the population of NYC), is showing how to keep it in check.  Despite being one of the first countries outside of China to have cases, as of two days ago (when this article was written by FoxNews...) 432 cases and 2 deaths.  That is less than PA and a fraction of NYC, and have had the virus in their country longer than PA or NY had the virus.
 
They got hit hard with the 2003 SARS outbreak, so they took this seriously from the beginning.  We need to follow how countries like this that are keeping it under control are doing things, that learned from previous mistakes. 
 
We were on a great track for about a week.  Trump's approval ratings went to his highest ever.  He is seriously going to put that on the line now?  The economy will rebound when this is over.  Most people at this point are not going to hold a bad economy caused by this pandemic against Trump.  Avoidable loss of a loved one, in an attempt to have the economy rolling by election time, will not be overlooked.    
 
https://www.foxnews.com/world/singapore-coronavirus-close-borders
 
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200324131843.htm
eyesandgillz
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/25 10:22:26 (permalink)
Current testing, per CDC...best #'s I could find on the actual tests performed, per day.  I'd say it is ramping up but we are definitely still behind on overall #'s.  
PA has had a significant amount of "Negative" tests, from the #'s I saw posted in other misc. local news articles....approaching 9,000 negative tests.
 
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html
 
Also saw that they were close to approving a test that could be confirmed in several hours, not several days.  It will only see limited use in Hospitals, though.  
 
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/21/coronavirus-test-returns-results-in-45-minutes/
 
Pretty detailed article on the ramp up testing, and new tests coming online, and some of the hurdles that needed to be jumped:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/standard-coronavirus-test-if-available-works-well-can-new-diagnostics-help-pandemic
 
Russia's low infection rates may be due to inaccurate tests rolled out by Vektor.  Their tests may not be sensitive enough to detect moderate infections and viral loads in patients.  Several articles out there re: this.
DarDys
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/25 10:22:56 (permalink)
I must agree with Pork on the headlines being able to be written a number of ways — all to support a narrative. Yesterday, my wife and I watched the news briefing live (no talking heads, just those speaking), because MeatEater was a rerun that we just saw. We had a little fun writing the headlines for the various news outlets.

Liberal news headline:

Uncaring and Cavalier Trump sets Artificial and Unrealistic Deadline to Normalcy

Sub headline:
Doesn’t care about numbers of infected or deaths as long as arbitrary religious holiday deadline is met

Conservative news headline:

Country will Return to Normal by Easter

Sub headline:
Trump’s Leadership Quells Panic


Neutral news headline:

Trump Hopes Large Portions of America Return to Normal by Easter

Sub headline:
Administration Health Experts Reserve Flexibility to Keep Hotspots Closed

For those that actually watched the event, not those who read about it (as the great philosopher Jimmy Buffet once sang: “Don’t try to describe the ocean if you’ve never seen it”), sadly, the neutral headline, which won’t see the light of day in today’s mainstream media (either side), is must accurate.

Trump used the word “hopes” when referring to things opening back up. He said large parts of America, not the whole country. The medical experts (those scientists that Biden says he would rely on, as if Trump is using a Magic 8 Ball) on the podium state that any forecasted timetable was flexible based on data, which will now be greatly improved due to increased testing.

Interesting enough, Mark Cuban stated the same day or perhaps the day before, that he expects the NBA to be up and playing by May, according to his contacts at the CDC (why is the CDC talking to a basketball team owner?), yet, no uproar about that prediction.

BTW, Sheetz has stopped fountain beverage service.

The poster formally known as Duncsdad

Everything I say can be fully substantiated by my own opinion.
BeenThereDoneThat.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/25 10:30:30 (permalink)
Dave I tried too and couldn't get by the subscription.

Appears to be just another article titled to capture subscriptions hoping to attract more sponsors leading to more money.

Shame of it is, based on the lead in, the article may contain some beneficial information aimed at "calming" rather than intentional misleading panic stirring info.

Butt anyways, let's go back to the beginning.

Covid-19 like any other virus causes flu like symptoms and is most hardest on the edlerly and those with underlying health problems.

However, Covid-19 is said to spread much faster than previous viruses.

The problem... no vaccine readily available as has been before other viruses arrived.

The problem News Networks playing on panic for the purpose of increasing thier viewing audience inturn increasing thier ratings which attracts more sponsors....

Yep, Covid-19 is very real and very dangerous but not nearly as dangerous, as the American news networks.... one and all.
post edited by BeenThereDoneThat. - 2020/03/25 10:35:05

Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you will feed him for a life time. ~Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie (1837–1919)~
 
 
 
  Old fisherman never die; we just smell that way. 
 
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/25 10:38:14 (permalink)
I had also read something about the tests taken at the Pittsburgh Zoo, overwhelming number of negative tests.  So hopefully a sign that it isn't out in the community as much as some may think.  It is so hard to tell with the flu, common cold, sinus infections and allergies all going around. 
 
I have no doubt in my mind that we'd be in major issues right now, if everything were open.  The spike in cases in Florida to me, says a lot.  We scrapped plans to go there in 1.5 weeks, so have been following things there closely.  Two weeks ago, when our schools closed and cases were popping up in EPA, there weren't any in FL.  Slowly moved across the state here, maybe 70 cases or so here, before FL had their first.  We have about 850 now, they have over 1200.  That isn't even counting how many cases they gave to other states from Spring Breakers...  Not to mention, most of their cases are in central to southern FL, where average daytime highs are in the 80s and the humidity that we get in the summer.  Not sure if that hypothesis of summer weather stopping this thing is looking very good.
 
I also read that there is a spike in "pneumonia" cases in Russia, that they are not testing for COVID-19.  Supposedly in attempt to keep numbers low to make Putin look good.
BeenThereDoneThat.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/25 10:54:39 (permalink)
😠😠😠 Will yinz PLEASE stop with the Russia rhetoric? Lately when I hear Covid-19 or Russia, I feel the need to dive under my desk....🤗 I said please.

Covid-19 or any virus, is something I do not want to contract, this year or any year hereafter.

What I want to know, is what will be done to prevent this same scenario in the future and how "does" Marc Cuban know the NBA is going to restart in May? Is that based on health information, or demands from Nike??
post edited by BeenThereDoneThat. - 2020/03/25 10:57:59

Give a man a fish and you will feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you will feed him for a life time. ~Anne Isabella Thackeray Ritchie (1837–1919)~
 
 
 
  Old fisherman never die; we just smell that way. 
 
r3g3
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/25 11:01:31 (permalink)
When looking at gross number of infections I see little to no companion reporting on population density.
To say NYC has half the cases is likely true but it is known by most, but still should be reported, that it also has a huge population living very densley.
Likewise some midwestern state of low population and density will likely show fewer infections.
The only real issue should be the number of infections per thousand of population -which will very likely be indicative of population crowding when dissected.
The time to get REAL worried is when the low less densely populated areas get hit hard-which isnt likely.
Therefore the stay home issue is clearly far and away more important to your health in densely populated areas.
Trump may well be correct in a relaxing of restrictions-perhaps  in those rural areas- in the not too distant future- depending on people kinda staying put at home elsewhere.
The mass exodus into the country from places like NY, however,  is likely to  have some negative effects on rural numbers in the near future IMHO.
post edited by r3g3 - 2020/03/25 11:03:28
Porktown
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/25 11:05:21 (permalink)
BeenThereDoneThat.
However, Covid-19 is said to spread much faster than previous viruses.


This is the most important part.  Not to minimize the toll it has on the elderly.  This fast spread is why it is crushing the public health system in areas that it is an outbreak.  That, and it has this extremely long infection window of 14 days (possibly more).  Where the flu and other viruses, you are no longer contagious for a much shorter window.  Along with people carrying that don't show signs.
 
If a health system like NY's is going through, is overrun, then the mortality rate of ALL infections goes up.  The flu which normally is something like .2% mortality rate, will skyrocket in NY during this time, since lack of medical attention or lack of needed supplies.  Yet, those deaths won't technically be COVID-19 deaths...
 
As I noted before, we are way too early to be talking timelines for anything.  I would bet my house, that Dr. Fauci and the panel of experts would agree.  That is why they said the timing would be flexible...  I.e. they have no clue at this point what 2 weeks from now will look like!
 
Since I know many on here have watched the President speak, both yesterday and Monday, I am sure that you noticed a bit of a change in what he said too?  Monday, his comment was not "regions of our country", it was "our economy" and "we can't let the solution be worse than the crisis", or something similar.  I am glad that he "clarified" his statements...  I would hope that areas of the country that aren't currently affected are already running close to normal.  Keep 6' away from fellow employees, but keep things going as normal as possible.  With most major economic centers of the country currently running at a fraction of capacity, the economy is going to reflect.  Those areas need to be in the clear, or very close to, before "returning to normal", or we will end up with a second wave.  Check your history books about the Spanish Flu, and the second wave being more deadly than the first.  Let's learn from our own history, if we aren't going to learn from others like Singapore.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/25 11:06:46 (permalink)
Did the best I could to copy and paste the text of the article from my dum fone. A little choppy but it’s all there I think.


If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.

Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.


Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.


Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.


In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Iceland’s first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. It’s plausible that the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double, triple or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also implies a dramatically lower fatality rate.

The best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a substantial number of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450 rostered players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a lower bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. The NBA isn’t a representative population, and contact among players might have facilitated transmission. But if we extend that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45 million), we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. The number of cases reported on March 19 in the U.S. was 13,677, more than 72-fold lower. These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.

How can we reconcile these estimates with the epidemiological models? First, the test used to identify cases doesn’t catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections. Epidemiological modelers haven’t adequately adapted their estimates to account for these factors.


The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.

This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. We don’t know the true infection rate in the U.S. Antibody testing of representative samples to measure disease prevalence (including the recovered) is crucial. Nearly every day a new lab gets approval for antibody testing, so population testing using this technology is now feasible.

If we’re right about the limited scale of the epidemic, then measures focused on older populations and hospitals are sensible. Elective procedures will need to be rescheduled. Hospital resources will need to be reallocated to care for critically ill patients. Triage will need to improve. And policy makers will need to focus on reducing risks for older adults and people with underlying medical conditions.
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Re: Coronavirus opinions 2020/03/25 11:09:53 (permalink)
Socialism to the rescue ....government checks on the way for all !  You just know Bernie is snickering.
 
Can micro waves kill this virus ? Just wondering ...while we clean household items . 
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