RE: what do ya think???
I'm beginning to wonder. If, and it's always a big "If", the forecast holds up as forecasted...It's going to be difficult to have a net gain in ice. I was on Eaton all day yesterday and it was amazing the amount of ice we lost during our time out there. We started the day with approximately 3-4" of good hard black ice and 2-3" of white ice. When we left at about 8pm...in most areas, the white ice was completely turned into slush and we lost 1/2"-3/4" of clear ice as well.
Now, this wouldn't be a big deal if we were expecting a cold snap to tighten the white ice back up, and rebuild the clear ice. The short and long-term forecast doesn't bear this out however. Usually what happens this time of year is we see some temps over freezing during some days which packs or melts insulating snow/slush. Then we get cold nights which tightens the top up and adds to the base clear ice. This year we're not getting those cold nights to tighten things/add to base.
This means we may not (probably won't) have the 8-15" of composite ice that we normally have that helps us weather the warm-ups and rain that we often see in late Feb. and early March. If we don't see a significant cold snap by next week or shortly thereafter...I'm afraid we've seen the best ice conditions we'll see this year.