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RE: survived another scare......... - 7/6/2008 11:07:47 PM   
rapala11

 

Posts: 2709
Joined: 3/5/2006
Status: offline 		wish i could copy and paste as neatly as you guys.

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Post #: 151
RE: survived another scare......... - 7/6/2008 11:09:49 PM   
rapala11

 

Posts: 2709
Joined: 3/5/2006
Status: offline
Las Vegas used to be a recession-proof oasis. Not anymore.






GALLERY
Las Vegas Luck Running Out

The city built on gambling places some risky bets on its future




By Steve Friess | Newsweek Web ExclusiveMay 5, 2008 | Updated: 1:27  a.m. ET May 7, 2008





From the Editors (2)
  • How to Survive the Economy
  • Real Estate: Tips for First-Time Buyers
    See All

    Recommended (6)
  • Do You Gut It Out, Or Cut And Run?
  • Live Talk: Dan McGinn on 'House Lust'
  • Samuelson: The Return of Inflation?
  • Don’t Follow The Momentum
  • Prostitution: Economy Hits Nevada’s Brothels
  • The Economy: Why It’s Worse Than You Think
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    Topics (2)
  • Las Vegas
  • Chris Brown
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    On the third weekend of every April, Emily Ann Frankston and her family—spread out over five states—meet up in Las Vegas for their annual family vacation. This year was different. The only ones to show up were Frankston, her husband and her brother-in-law, and they stayed just two nights instead of the traditional three. "My two sisters back east said airfares were too high, my mother-in-law lost her job in January, and some of the others said they were busy, but we think they didn't want to spend the money," says Frankston, 37, who drove in from the Phoenix area. "We've done this for the past nine years. Even after 9/11 we all came. But this year's it's just us. This recession is really hurting everyone."
    It's even hurting the city of Las Vegas, the economy of which was once thought to be impervious to the economic swings suffered by the rest of the country. Not anymore. According to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA), Las Vegas has seen gambling revenues fall only once since 1970: in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terror attacks they dropped 1 percent in 2002 from 2001. So far this year they've fallen 4 percent, the number of conventions held has dropped 10.4 percent, and average daily room rates were off 3.8 percent in the first two months of 2008, according to the most recent data available. Visitor volume was up 1.2 percent through February, but market analysts say that's because of the extra day provided by this being a leap year; March's figures will likely put the year-to-date numbers in negative territory. The stock price of MGM Mirage, owner of Bellagio, Mirage and eight other Strip resorts, has halved, from $100.50 in October to about $49 on Friday. In recent weeks the company eliminated 440 middle management jobs to save $75 million annually. "We made a structural change in our company to become more efficient and provide the same level of service, but we did have to advance that effort because we were also seeing a softening in the marketplace," says MGM Mirage spokesman Alan Feldman.
    What's leaving Las Vegas more susceptible to this economic crisis than to previous ones? Diversification. Roughly 60 percent of the Las Vegas Strip's revenues now come from nongaming activities. By contrast, in 1991 and 1992, when the last comparable slowdown occurred, nongaming activities provided just 42 percent of overall revenue. "This is different from prior downturns," says Bill Lerner, a Deutsche Bank gaming-sector analyst. "Now that there are a lot more nongaming amenities, the visitation mix is leaning toward nongamblers, and the consumer coming to Vegas is different now than it was."



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    It doesn't help that the city's convention business is slipping. Several annual conventions have seen fewer attendees show up and have seen those who do come stay for shorter periods. For example, last week's National Association of Broadcasters confab attracted 105,000 registrants, down from 111,000 in 2007, according to NAB executive vice president Chris Brown. Those figures could have been worse, Brown says, but advance registrations were so far down that several hotel-casinos voluntarily offered to cut room rates by $10 or more to encourage attendance. Says Brown, "That's never happened before."
    The Frankstons aren't the only vacationers staying away. Nearly 7 percent fewer cars crossed the Nevada-California border along Interstate 15 through February, reflecting in part that record-high gasoline prices are curtailing drive-in visitors from the largest neighboring state. Making matters worse, three airlines with substantial service to Las Vegas—Aloha, ATA and Champion—are going out of business.
    Even the mortgage mess and the subsequent credit crunch have taken a toll on Vegas. Several major construction projects on the Strip are delayed due to financing problems, including a second tower for Donald Trump's new condo-hotel. Also delayed is a plan to build a $6 billion version of New York City's famed Plaza Hotel. And while construction continues on the half-built $3 billion Cosmopolitan Resort and Casino next to the Bellagio, the project may be in jeopardy after developer Bruce Eichner's company defaulted on a $760 million loan from Deutsche Bank. (Eichner did not respond to

    _____________________________

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    ..."Old men start wars...young men die in them."

    (in reply to rapala11)
    • Post #: 152
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/6/2008 11:10:38 PM   
    rapala11

     

    Posts: 2709
    Joined: 3/5/2006
    Status: offline     		there is much more if you like, but i think i provided some sources.

    _____________________________

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    ..."Old men start wars...young men die in them."

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    Post #: 153
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/7/2008 5:11:34 AM   
    jackq

     

    Posts: 193
    Joined: 3/31/2008
    From: Altoona/Newville, PA.
    Status: offline     		Yeah rap, you probably got those clippings from the biased liberal press!!!  You know they NEVER print the truth!!

    (in reply to rapala11)
    Post #: 154
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/7/2008 7:47:50 AM   
    S-10

     

    Posts: 1571
    Joined: 1/21/2005
    Status: offline     		According to the March Wall Street Journal the Commerce Dept revised the January numbers upward to show a +.4%  increase in retail sales in January. They also cite the high price of gas as the continuing danger going forward.

    (in reply to jackq)
    Post #: 155
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/7/2008 8:32:53 AM   
    S-10

     

    Posts: 1571
    Joined: 1/21/2005
    Status: offline     		To assure everyone the sky isn't falling (at least not yet) click on -bullandbearwise.com-retail sales-. This is a five year chart by month of retail sales comparing month to month results. It shows that Feb sales were the only month this year in negative terrority and you can compare it to any month the last five years to see the trend.  No doubt the price of gas will negatively affect everything if it stays up but we are still buying retail. Also,remember-It's an election year. Does your company paint a bright economic picture prior to union negoiations.

    (in reply to S-10)
    Post #: 156
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/7/2008 8:45:22 AM   
    rapala11

     

    Posts: 2709
    Joined: 3/5/2006
    Status: offline     		gas is affecting sales.  first quarter sales for many retailers were down.  profits were down.  again, i see the figures.  wasn't my source creditable enough?

    _____________________________

    silence means consent

    ..."Old men start wars...young men die in them."

    (in reply to S-10)
    Post #: 157
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/7/2008 8:47:02 AM   
    rapala11

     

    Posts: 2709
    Joined: 3/5/2006
    Status: offline     		40 sec] add to playlist
    All Things Considered, May 2, 2008 · The list of retail bankruptcies and store closures is growing. It's being predicted that store closures will rise 25 percent this year. It would be easy to blame the faltering economy, but there's more to it than that.

    Drowning in DebtCredit Problems Squeeze Retailers, Too

    Listen Now add to playlist Third of a five-part series



    U.S. Store Closings

    A selected list of major recent retail closings:

    • Foot Locker: 274 stores in 2007
    • Ann Taylor Stores: 117 stores by 2010
    • Zales: 100 stores
    • Wilsons Leather: 158 stores
    • Talbots: 78 Talbots kids' and men's stores by September
    • Pacific Sunwear: 154 demo clothing stores
    • CompUSA: 103 stores
    • Bombay Co.: all 388 of its remaining stores
    • Sharper Image: 96 stores
    • Levitz Furniture: all 76 of its stores

    Sources: Company statements and news reports.

     Morning Edition, April 30, 2008 · A record 7,000 U.S. stores could close this year, a retail analyst predicts, citing cuts in consumer spending and retailers' struggles to borrow money and fend off competition.
    "We've got a very difficult situation in the retail business," says Howard Davidowitz, an independent analyst in New York. Several retail chains have filed for bankruptcy protection and another 15 or so are "on the edge," he says.
    Retailers' debt jumped 30 percent in the past year, Davidowitz says.
    "Just like consumer debt is up, corporate debt is up," he says. "Everybody's debt is up. It's a real danger."
    Amid a tight credit market and banks suffering from the subprime mortgage mess, retailers are having trouble borrowing. Many retailers routinely use debt to finance their inventories, but that lifeline is harder to come by, Davidowitz says.
    "This is a terrible time to be dependent on bank debt and be in trouble because the banks will be unmerciful...." he says. "There are many retailers out there ... who maybe could operate OK if they got some forbearance, but it's a terrible time to be dependent on bank debt."
    Other factors are working against retailers. "Americans are spending less," Davidowitz says. "They've got the highest debt they've ever had." And consumers are spending more for food and energy, leaving less for discretionary purchases.
    And, he says, "We have too many stores."
    "We have 19 1/2 square feet [of retail space] for every man, woman and child in this country," Davidowitz says, suggesting that's nearly double what is needed.
    Chains from Foot Locker to CompUSA have shuttered stores in the past year. In 2007, 4,500 stores folded, according to Davidowitz.
    "Almost everybody closed because of too much competition," he says. "What happened? Wal-Mart came along and closed them down. The consumer made a choice to choose Wal-Mart. The prices were lower, the stores were bigger...."

    _____________________________

    silence means consent

    ..."Old men start wars...young men die in them."

    (in reply to rapala11)
    Post #: 158
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/7/2008 8:50:15 AM   
    rapala11

     

    Posts: 2709
    Joined: 3/5/2006
    Status: offline     		According to the March Wall Street Journal the Commerce Dept revised the January numbers upward to show a +.4%  increase in retail sales in January. 

    this number shows the end of the Christmas season where sales usually carry a retailer.  sales during this period are expected to be abouve 3%.  your .4% tells me that stores broke even at best, and that sales were not good.

    an even better indicator is sale store sales on stores open more than one year.  this will clearly show a withdrawal from shopping. 

    < Message edited by rapala11 -- 7/7/2008 8:51:20 AM >

    _____________________________

    silence means consent

    ..."Old men start wars...young men die in them."

    (in reply to rapala11)
    Post #: 159
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/7/2008 8:54:14 AM   
    ROCKHARD


    Posts: 807
    Joined: 10/13/2007
    Status: offline     		gas prices are main cause in these slumps,,, i know,rock running his mouth again,, but we need congress to get off their high horse a--s and lets drill, short term it will relieve the price at the pump,,until we have alternative,no other choice,,, as soon as they say go,,watch opec and other nations drop their price,, up their production,and flood the market,, you might think i am full of sh--t,but i been in this game (oil) for a long time,know how it works,, when they come out with more fuel efficient cars,and other energy,,everyone is for that,believe me,,,but cant have congress playing with all our livlihoods,and sitting around waiting for a miracle,,,

    _____________________________

    WHAT WE HAVE HERE IS A FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE,, SOME MEN YOU JUST CANT REACH

    (in reply to S-10)
    Post #: 160
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/7/2008 9:00:53 AM   
    rapala11

     

    Posts: 2709
    Joined: 3/5/2006
    Status: offline     		rock, one of the causes.  unemployment, rising utilities, rising cost for durable goods as well as a lack of disposable income due to other factors can lead to sales going down.  even the credit card crunch and the deflated housing market add to poor sales growth.  my favorite is the weather.

    all these factors were happening before oil hit the fan.  once it did, it made things even a lot worse.

    s10, i tried your site, but would not come up.

    _____________________________

    silence means consent

    ..."Old men start wars...young men die in them."

    (in reply to ROCKHARD)
    Post #: 161
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/7/2008 9:33:36 AM   
    ROCKHARD


    Posts: 807
    Joined: 10/13/2007
    Status: offline     		good point rap

    _____________________________

    WHAT WE HAVE HERE IS A FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE,, SOME MEN YOU JUST CANT REACH

    (in reply to rapala11)
    Post #: 162
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/7/2008 10:46:55 AM   
    S-10

     

    Posts: 1571
    Joined: 1/21/2005
    Status: offline     		Rapalla11-- Type in retail history and go to the third page, It's about half way down titled bullsand bears. I read your articles and no doubt some truth but some were projections and they talked mostly about the stores in trouble. The site I quoted is the U.S. retail market as a whole and takes in the ones making it as well as the ones in trouble. I still agree the price of gas could change everything in the future.  -----Question= how can you tell the difference between Obama and McCain's position on Iraq. Answer= Obama is the black guy. Amazing that a couple months ago it was General Betray us and Clinton was getting beat up for not giving a solid date for withdrawl of the troops. Must be an election year.

    (in reply to ROCKHARD)
    Post #: 163
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/7/2008 11:45:51 AM   
    jackq

     

    Posts: 193
    Joined: 3/31/2008
    From: Altoona/Newville, PA.
    Status: offline     		Question...does the sales go by items sold or by price of item?? If it goes by price I can understand an increase of sales. e.g. .... a pair of shoes costs $20 raise the price of the same pair to $40 and your sales doubled.

    (in reply to S-10)
    Post #: 164
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/7/2008 12:14:01 PM   
    rapala11

     

    Posts: 2709
    Joined: 3/5/2006
    Status: offline     		jack, sales are calculated in dollar amount.  the quarter from the prior year is measured against the same quarter of the current year.  if this years numbers are down, or up less than 2-3%, it it considered bad.

    profit is derived from costs (all)-sale amount.  here is the biggy, many retailers, even at Christmas, discounted merchandise to the point that they lost or barely broke even.  the last couple of holiday seasons have been rough for big retailers, but as long as the consumer has some money, they can pick up deals.  this past year, it seems as though many shoppers cut back.

    _____________________________

    silence means consent

    ..."Old men start wars...young men die in them."

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    Post #: 165
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/7/2008 6:41:15 PM   
    jonnyfishon

     

    Posts: 1263
    Joined: 2/7/2008
    Status: offline     		Bush stole CHRISTMAS TOO, THAT BASTARD.

    (in reply to rapala11)
    Post #: 166
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/7/2008 6:50:12 PM   
    jonnyfishon

     

    Posts: 1263
    Joined: 2/7/2008
    Status: offline     		So here we are. Obama wins and the democrats control everything, abosolute power(very dangerous) Mcain wins and keeps bushes trickle down policys(very dangerous) One thing is for sure, we need ballance in the white house. How about a 4th party. Nader will never have a shot.

    (in reply to jonnyfishon)
    Post #: 167
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/7/2008 7:29:28 PM   
    ROCKHARD


    Posts: 807
    Joined: 10/13/2007
    Status: offline     		a third party presence would help keep things honest anyhow,,, even more independents in congress would be a plus,,, jonny ,i really dont think mccain will follow bush,,  think he is more center,he likes to vote both sides of the isle,,, but ,you never know,, still alot of campaign talking going on,, going to be interesting ,no matter what

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    WHAT WE HAVE HERE IS A FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE,, SOME MEN YOU JUST CANT REACH

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    Post #: 168
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/8/2008 1:47:23 PM   
    spoonchucker


    Posts: 5905
    Status: online     		"Spoon said---Negative savings rate--first time since the DEPRESSION.  What he forgot to mention is that took place in 2005 and improved the following year. "

    Yup it really improved.

    updated 4:56 p.m. ET, Thurs., Feb. 1, 2007

    WASHINGTON - People are saving at the lowest level since the Great Depression, and that could be a problem for the millions of baby boomers getting ready to retire.
    In fact, the Commerce Department reported Thursday that the nation’s personal savings rate for all of 2006 was a negative 1 percent, the worst showing in 73 years.

    The 1 percent negative savings rate in 2006 followed a 0.4 percent negative rate in 2005. There have been only four years in history that the savings rate has fallen into negative territory. The other two were 1932 and 1933 during the Great Depression.

    < Message edited by spoonchucker -- 7/8/2008 1:48:21 PM >

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    (in reply to rapala11)
    Post #: 169
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/8/2008 3:36:04 PM   
    ROCKHARD


    Posts: 807
    Joined: 10/13/2007
    Status: offline     		spoon ,i know as fact , people for 30/40 yrs never had savings accounts cause of cost of living rises,,,most people live pay to pay, no extra to save,, nothing new,, i knew people working construction,steel, oil, lumber, that couldnt afford to save yrs ago,,, how the media and other sources always paint a rosy picture come elections,,, only most who save have more than they need  at time they save it,,, not a good showing of status of economy

    _____________________________

    WHAT WE HAVE HERE IS A FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE,, SOME MEN YOU JUST CANT REACH

    (in reply to spoonchucker)
    Post #: 170
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/8/2008 7:39:05 PM   
    Over the Hill


    Posts: 528
    Joined: 3/28/2007
    Status: offline     		Does anyone know what they include for the savings rate? IE: Do they include 401k, profit sharing, mutual funds, government savings bonds. Or do they just look at typical savings accounts and checking accounts. I'm having a hard time looking it up on the net as to what is included. Anyone know?

    _____________________________

    OVER THE HILL

    Some people are like slinky's; not really good for anything, but, they bring a smile to your face when you push them down the stairs...

    (in reply to ROCKHARD)
    Post #: 171
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/8/2008 8:32:13 PM   
    S-10

     

    Posts: 1571
    Joined: 1/21/2005
    Status: offline     		Hill--First-I was wrong on the 2006 number, The graph I was using only went mid year and I didn't pick up on it. Certain savings plans are not counted, capital gains on investments aren't counted, interest on existing savings is not counted, home equity isn't counted. As I said before savings percentage started to slide in 1985 and has been on a downward trend ever since. It will appear to get worse because the baby boomers will quit working hence quit saving and instead start spending their kids inheritence. I started a few years ago. Most so called experts agree that savings is a poor indicator of anything because of some of the things I just mentioned.

    (in reply to Over the Hill)
    Post #: 172
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/9/2008 3:59:08 PM   
    Over the Hill


    Posts: 528
    Joined: 3/28/2007
    Status: offline     		Thanks S-10. That's what I was thinking of...things not counted. I was wondering about the 401k savings. There are BILLIONS of dollars being put into the market for people's futures. If that's not counted (and again i don't know for sure) that would have a major impact on the savings statistics.

    I wonder if the sources they get the dada from is not accurate for people's saving today. IE: The internet stock trading today is very easy and cheap (Scottrade $7 to buy/sell-no account fees, etc...), Hedge funds, Corperate personal investment plans, etc....

    Home equity is one way of saving that many people do count on for retirement. My parents counted on downsizing the home and then retiring on the profit they gained. There are MANY people moving here from the NY-metro-Philly area to retire. Many sold their homes over there for $500-$750+ K, buy a home nice here for $200-$250k and have a good chunk of change left over. (down side is they have driven up our market here so the most local jobs don't pay to cover buying a home. Monroe County's #1 export-it's children, they can't afford to live here))

    _____________________________

    OVER THE HILL

    Some people are like slinky's; not really good for anything, but, they bring a smile to your face when you push them down the stairs...

    (in reply to S-10)
    Post #: 173
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/9/2008 6:11:53 PM   
    ROCKHARD


    Posts: 807
    Joined: 10/13/2007
    Status: offline     		there is also lots of savings done outside of the banking system ,to avoid being taxed on income already taxed once,,,many old timers from the depression dont trust banking system,so had their savings buried around their households,no interest gains,but also no taxes either

    _____________________________

    WHAT WE HAVE HERE IS A FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE,, SOME MEN YOU JUST CANT REACH

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    Post #: 174
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/9/2008 6:41:38 PM   
    spoonchucker


    Posts: 5905
    Status: online     		Yeah THAT makes sense. Put your money in a shoe box so you don't have to pay taxes on the interest.



    _____________________________

    Get Informed, Get Involved, And Make A Difference.

    Step Up, or Step Aside

    The next time you say "Somebody should do something", remember that YOU are somebody.

    GL&TC

    (in reply to ROCKHARD)
    Post #: 175
    RE: survived another scare......... - 7/9/2008 6:51:51 PM   
    ROCKHARD


    Posts: 807
    Joined: 10/13/2007
    Status: offline     		well spoon,that is what was done and still is,,,never said i did,,,but many old timers dont trust banking system,,,any tax is a slap in the face of the working man ,spoon,,, govt always with hands out so they can give it to the other end with their hands out,, 

    _____________________________

    WHAT WE HAVE HERE IS A FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE,, SOME MEN YOU JUST CANT REACH

    (in reply to spoonchucker)
    Post #: 176
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