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RE: UNBELIEVABLE!!

 
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RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 9/30/2008 1:55:44 PM   
rapala11

 

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It's a really bad situation but even though it will hurt me I perfer to let the market take care of itself

dow is up 350, nasdaq has almost completely returned, oil still under 100 bux.  if this trend continues, will a bail out have been necessary?

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Post #: 31
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 9/30/2008 3:27:30 PM   
mikeg


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Will a bailout still be necessary? Absolulely!!

The banks are failing no matter what the market does. Dow is up 350! Yes, but is still down BIG TIME!

Even if the markets stablize (and the will very soon) the banks are still in the same situation that led us into this mess in the first place. If they continue in the direction they are going (which will be the case if nothing is done) they will start falling like a land slide and will be a economic disaster.

Realize this....Even if you don't have a penny in an IRA or invested in anything you are still at a high risk if nothing is done.

If banks continue collapsing, EVERYONE will feel it. Corporate growth will stop, companys will continue to cut expenses(jobs), home values will fall, lending will stop, personal growth will stop, interest rates will rise, you get the picture.

And of coarse, with the current budget mess our country is in, do you think the country can afford the HUGE descrease in revenue from all that growth, spending, ect.?

If you think times are tough now they aren't anything like they will be if nothing is fixed NOW!
And here's something that they won't tell you.....
I've heard the media warn about another "Great Depression" makes me kind of get light headed.
If these thing happen in today's world, the "Great Depression" will seem like a walk in the park!

Not only will the the US collapse under our feet, but do you realize what kind of consumer market us greedy, got to buy everything Americans are to other countrys? Do anyone realize that we are a "on credit" society that can not and will not function with out it? It wasn't that bad during the Great Depression, so imagine if things got that bad in today's world!

It will be like a bad roller coaster whiping out most of all countrys we trade with and that rely on us. What happens then? Here's your answer!

Total Global Chaos!

So boys and girls, those of you that feel that we shouldn't bail these high rollers out and to just let them go broke need to consider that they are the "engine" of the country. And with out them we aren't going anywhere but backwards.

I don't like it anymore than everybody, but they (goverment) need to quit worrying about votes and fix this NOW! I don't care if it cost twice the projected amount.

< Message edited by mikeg -- 9/30/2008 3:30:23 PM >

(in reply to rapala11)
Post #: 32
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 9/30/2008 4:24:54 PM   
pxatim


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From: dahn rahn ah rocks
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I can attest that I don't know alot about investing in the Stock Market but shouldn't there be some major money to be made through all of this. Seems like this could be a day traders dream...

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Post #: 33
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 9/30/2008 4:43:05 PM   
mikeg


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From: Erie, PA
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Absolutley!!!

If you had about $250,000 CASH on Monday you could be a wealthy man by next week!
Millionairs are made during these times!

< Message edited by mikeg -- 9/30/2008 4:44:21 PM >

(in reply to pxatim)
Post #: 34
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 9/30/2008 4:57:57 PM   
pin_drifter


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Joined: 6/23/2008
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If things keep going the way they are looks like. I am going to have to reload alot of shells just not for meat either but to protect my family. They will starts riots and stealing we are in serious trouble here people. And no one to thank except our great goverment..... It's scarey to think these jokers run our country i bet some 5th graders could do a better job...But then again we have to thank Bush for all his fkked things he has done. I mean come on a billion dollars a day to fight a war in iraq that we should have finished in 1991. If we would have we wouldn't be where we are today.

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Post #: 35
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 10/1/2008 12:15:30 AM   
indsguiz


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pin,
   Every time I see your avatar I hear chef; and you should stat your posts with "Now Children,"

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Post #: 36
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 10/1/2008 7:17:27 AM   
S-10

 

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Pin wrote= I mean come on a billion dollars a day to fight a war in iraq that we should have finished in 1991. If we would have we wouldn't be where we are today.



That's a good example of why you don't quit fighting a war before you have won it . Korea is another good example, 55 years later we are still there and they are more dangerous than ever.

(in reply to indsguiz)
Post #: 37
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 10/1/2008 7:29:57 AM   
griffon

 

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The problem is, this war is about a government fighting a religeous sect.  the government will never win.  There is no way we should be in Iraq right now and even if we "win" this war as McCain would have us believe...  What are you going to win?  All we will have done is create more unrest in an everchanging, unstable part of the world.  This is the one reason above and beyond all others that I will be voting against my registered party this election.  I don't think we should be there.  I think it is costing us way too many soldiers lives (be it through death or injury). I know it is costing us billions of dollars and is one of the reasons that the costs of raw materials is going through the roof.  I am quite certain that we were fed a lot of lies for going there in the first place and that our intentions are not what our government would tell you and I.  Seriously, if McCain really wanted to win this election all he would have to do is drop the war rhetoric and tell the American people that we don't belong over there and we will be pulling our troops out as soon as he gets into office.  I believe he would win by a landslide.

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Post #: 38
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 10/1/2008 8:48:11 AM   
eyesandgillz


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quote:

ORIGINAL: griffon

The problem is, this war is about a government fighting a religeous sect.  the government will never win.  There is no way we should be in Iraq right now and even if we "win" this war as McCain would have us believe...  What are you going to win?  All we will have done is create more unrest in an everchanging, unstable part of the world.  This is the one reason above and beyond all others that I will be voting against my registered party this election.  I don't think we should be there.  I think it is costing us way too many soldiers lives (be it through death or injury). I know it is costing us billions of dollars and is one of the reasons that the costs of raw materials is going through the roof.  I am quite certain that we were fed a lot of lies for going there in the first place and that our intentions are not what our government would tell you and I.  Seriously, if McCain really wanted to win this election all he would have to do is drop the war rhetoric and tell the American people that we don't belong over there and we will be pulling our troops out as soon as he gets into office.  I believe he would win by a landslide.


Griffon,
I have to disagree.  Agree with the war or not, the fact is we are there.  The president elect has to deal with it.  If we do not finish what we started, Iraq WILL turn into another Afghanistan and we will be back there again in the near future.  Is a new strategy required, perhaps, but I doubt complete withdrawal before the Iraqi gov't can stand on its own is the right strategy.  As far as the run up of raw materials, China, India and smaller places like UAE who are on a building tear have far more to do with the raw material costs than our military spending.  Fuel I can give you with that argument as they have had an effect but the effect on other raw materials (unless you are talkng titanium, depleted uranium, and the like) has been negligible.  We get large steel and construction quotes in ever month or so for our projects and our suppliers state that rising costs are from the reasons I state above.   

(in reply to griffon)
Post #: 39
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 10/1/2008 9:04:00 AM   
griffon

 

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To your point "Iraq will become another Afghanistan", it will undoubtedly turn into another Afghanistan regardless of how much we stay and fight.  The Russians thought they could take over Afghanistan and occupied the country for many years, unsuccessfully.  No government has ever been able to impose their will over there and no government ever will.  Getting us out quickly is our best interest.  I am not an antiwar person (farthest thing from it), but this one is wrong and we are right back into another Vietnam where we do not belong.  The price of these unnecessary wars is steep both economically and through human suffering on both sides.  To my original point, you will never win and even if that prognostication were incorrect, what would you win?  Perhaps our politicians will learn someday and history will not need to repeat itself again in 40 years.

(in reply to eyesandgillz)
Post #: 40
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 10/1/2008 10:35:33 AM   
Porktown


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I'm not sure where I stand on this.  So many economists on each side.  With the Bush administration's doomsday speaches on the Iraq invasion compared to this, is almost identical.  Hurry, now, do it, we are in grave danger...  Every bit of news that this doesn't go through, the market tanks.  I am a younger guy with not too much in investments.  I checked them yesterday, and am down 20+% from my initial investments starting 10 years ago.  I was up 8+% about 2 years ago, so down close to 30% down overall.  I'm not retiring any time soon, so I can deal with it. 

The thing that I am really worried about, is the amount of American baby boomers that are on the verge of retirement.  Taking 30% of their retirement is a huge blow to them (likely only 20% since they're likely in lower risk investments).  This means either stay working (keeping that higher paying job that could be passed down to others with looser pocketbooks), or retire with a lot less (only buying necessities).  Both are a huge blow to the overall economy.  In turn, is going to be an overall blow to all of us.  Those same baby boomers have children that are likely going to be supporting them in the next 15-20 years.  If the market tanks another 15%, or has a 10 year recovery after the fact, those that do not see any affect now, who thought everything was fine, likely will.

Funny how I haven't heard much about the CRA, seems to be the Republican scape goat for this whole mess.  I guess the GOP applogists on here, actually did some homework?  Not saying this whole crisis is on the GOP, but funny that I hear idiots try to pin this on what ever they can that doesn't involve their political side (DNC too).  It is good to hear even the far right conservatives agreeing there should be more oversite in the future.  Free markets are the best in the world, but there needs to be some rules.  Just as a free society, we can't go around robbing and killing each other.  It would be nice to know those in on Wall St. have some rules to not rob and kill the middle class.

http://www.traigerlaw.com/publications/traiger_hinckley_llp_cra_foreclosure_study_1-7-08.pdf



(in reply to griffon)
Post #: 41
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 10/2/2008 8:30:37 AM   
eyesandgillz


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Some history on Mortgage Securitization:

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/01/mortgage_securi.html

http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cflnovember2007_244.pdf

Mr. Clinton signed the law.  Of course, the republicans were not yet in control of the Congress at this time.  Could be wrong on my timing but I think the takeover took place during the Nov. '94 election.  So Porky, who is to blame?  Honestly, everyone...but, this legislation just made things happen a whole lot easier.  It most likely would have happened anyways, even if this was signed into law at that time.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m3601/is_n10_v41/ai_15831325

Quote from the article:
"Banking legislation signed into law September 23 by President Clinton should facilitate expansion of the secondary market for commercial and multi-family real estate mortgage loans by helping to reduce securitization transaction costs, expand investor markets, and aid banks' entry into the secondary market through subordination transactions."

(in reply to Porktown)
Post #: 42
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 10/2/2008 8:46:37 AM   
jon_e_si

 

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Going very much against the media meme that the current financial crisis is all George W. Bush and the Republicans' fault, Bill Clinton on Thursday told ABC's Chris Cuomo that Democrats for years have been "resisting any efforts by Republicans in the Congress or by me when I was President to put some standards and tighten up a little on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac" (video available here, relevant section at 2:45).
Whether he knew it or not, Clinton was going against virtually all press outlets that have been pointing fingers at Republicans since this crisis began, and likely much to the dismay of such folk actually agreed with a Fox News segment aired on Tuesday's "Special Report" (video embedded right):





BRIT HUME, HOST: In the recent spate of government bailouts, buyouts and rescues, the federal takeovers of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are arguably the biggest of them all. And those two firms are also arguably the biggest reason for the credit crisis in the first place. So the question arises -- how did this come to be? Chief Washington correspondent Jim Angle reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JIM ANGLE, CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): There is one nagging question behind all the debate over how to get out of this mess.
CHRIS DODD (D-CT), SENATE BANKING COMMITTEE CHMN: American taxpayers are angry and they demand to know how we arrived at this moment.
ELIZABETH DOLE (R), NORTH CAROLINA SENATOR: My constituents, and indeed taxpayers across the nation are asking how we arrived at this crisis. It is infuriating.
ANGLE: But Senator Dole and others think they know the answer, and it's something the Senate tried to fix three years ago but was thwarted.
DOLE: To the mismanagement of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which was made possible by weak oversight and little accountability.
MEL MARTINEZ (R), FLORIDA SENATOR: A lot of what we're dealing with today has its origins in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
ANGLE: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, backed by the federal government, buy mortgage loans from the lenders who make them. But four years ago, both were in trouble over shoddy accounting. Fannie Mae Chief Franklin Raines, President Clinton's former budget director, was fired. To placate those in Congress who watched over them, Fannie and Freddie promised to do more to help poor people get mortgages. That led them to buy riskier and riskier home loans from private lenders creating incentives for everyone to make shakier loans.
PETER WALLISON, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE: The problem is that they encouraged very bad mortgages to be made by banks and other institutions, because Fannie and Freddie would buy them.
ANGLE: Eventually, they bought trillions of dollars worth of mortgages, a substantial portion of them based on poor credit, then resold many of them to financial institutions who thought they were safe because the federal government was behind them.
WALLISON: As a result of this appearance that they were backed by the government, people never paid very much attention to the assets they were acquiring or the risks they were taking.
ANGLE: And so shaky mortgages spread throughout the system. But in 2005, the Senate Banking Committee, then chaired by Republican Richard Shelby, tried to rein in the two organizations bypassing some strong new regulations.
WALLISON: Which would have prevented Fannie and Freddie from acquiring this bad -- these bad mortgages. It actually gave a new regulator for Fannie and Freddie the kinds of powers that a bank regulator had.
ANGLE: All the Republicans voted for it. All the Democrats, including the current chairman, Senator Chris Dodd, voted against it, and that was after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan had issued a stark warning to senators that Fannie and Freddie were playing with fire. Greenspan said without stronger regulations, "We increase the possibility of insolvency and crisis. Without restrictions on the size of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, we put at risk our ability to preserve safe and sound financial markets in the United States."
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ANGLE: Which turned out to be exactly right, but because Democrats blocked it, those new regulations never got consideration by the full Senate and died. So that's how we got into this mess, and how we missed a chance to avoid it. Getting out of it now, of course, will be a lot more difficult -- Brit.
HUME: Oh, boy. Thanks, Jim.

Two days later, former President Clinton agreed:

CHRIS CUOMO, ABC NEWS: A little surprising for you to hear the Democrats saying, "This came out of nowhere, this is all about the Republicans. We had nothing to do with this." Nancy Pelosi saying it. She signed the '99 Gramm Bill. She knew what was going on with the SEC. They're all sophisticated people. Is that playing politics in this situation?
BILL CLINTON: Well, maybe everybody does that a little bit. I think the responsibility the Democrats have may rest more in resisting any efforts by Republicans in the Congress or by me when I was President to put some standards and tighten up a little on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Imagine that!
Kudos to Cuomo for asking the question, and kudos to Clinton for being so honest, especially in an election year.
The only question remains whether other news outlets will follow suit and begin telling the American people just how many proposals Republicans have made in the past decade to impose tighter regulations and oversight on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and how such efforts were routinely thwarted by Democrats.

(in reply to eyesandgillz)
Post #: 43
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 10/2/2008 9:31:13 AM   
Porktown


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Read some of the links that Eyes posted.  This is not Fannie and Freddy, but the private giants that took the major risks (especially in the past few years), which is what is crashing the market.  Fannie and Freddie dipped their feet compared to what the big private guys are doing. 

From my understaning of this all.  Most of Freddie and Fannie barrowers are just looking for a modest house to live in, likely on some sort of blue collar or service income.  Were some high risk, sure, but those approving the loans, assumed there would be work and pay for them.  Raise the cost of oil, groceries, and ship their jobs to India, and they are scraping to keep their home.

The private lenders were looking for what ever profits they could find.  Many of their investments were on people trying to make money buying and selling in the housing boom.  Many of which had no experience or knowledge of what is really involved.  They bought as a way to get a piece of the pie, and now the pie was kept in the oven too long.  Now they lost a ton of cash, and property, but still likely have a home to live in.

There would be no Freddy & Fannie crisis, if the economy was still rolling strong and the oil greed factor didn't arise.  The housing bubble would have burst sooner or later, even with a strong economy.  This whole ordeal wouldn't be nearly what it is now.  Not saying it is W's fault, but $1B per month going to Iraq, would have been really nice for infestructure projects, providing American jobs.  I'm still convinced that this administration had their hands in the oil gouging business as well, which is definitely a contributor to many foreclosures (price of everything went up due to oil). 

(in reply to jon_e_si)
Post #: 44
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 10/2/2008 11:30:46 AM   
eyesandgillz


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Pork,
Don't backpeddle now..... 

The appearance that these securities had backing by the gov't made all those private entities gobble 'em up.  Sure, Fannie and Freddie didn't have them all, but they got out of them by selling a lot of them to the private firms who thought they looked so good and thought they had backing of the US gov't (ie. safe, even if they started tanking).  Granted, there is plenty of blame to go around but to try to blame oil prices on this is unrealistic, in my opinion.  It really is the perfect storm of events all happening at about same time that lead up to this.  The really disconcerting thing is, the writing was on the wall a couple years ago but to my knowledge, there was no real effort to do anything by Congress or the administration. 

For some more interesting reading, read some of Bill Fleckenstein's archived articles over at MSNmoney.com.  He has been screaming for a couple years now that the house of cards was going to collapse and nothing was being done.  He absolutley despises Greenspan and puts a lot of the blame on him for all the easy money making it even easier for the subprime loans to happen. 

Just hope the so called "leaders" in Washington can get their heads out of their collective arses and come up with a workable solution that doesn't create even more problems down the road.  We are going to be looking at pain, no matter what for awhile and is it better to take our lumps now or drag it out with stop-gap measures.  ????

(in reply to Porktown)
Post #: 45
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 10/2/2008 12:33:34 PM   
rapala11

 

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current financial crisis is all George W. Bush and the Republicans' fault,.................

maybe, maybe not.  i cannot understand how bush, until a month or so ago, continued to say the economy was good and good jobs were being created while the whole time he knew we were in a bad tailspin.  flat-out lies.  he should (as a leader) said that there were problems on the horizon and needed attention, but i honestly believe he was hoping he would be out of office before the inposion.  we have been moving towards this crisis since 2005.  fact of the matter is, he still will not acknowledge that we are in a recession and won't use the word.

_____________________________

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..."Old men start wars...young men die in them."

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Post #: 46
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 10/2/2008 1:09:17 PM   
jon_e_si

 

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Have you noticed none of the politicians will admit they're wrong, made a bad decision, etc. and when a problem arises they come up with the solution (time tested) of covering it up with taxpayer money!

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Post #: 47
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 10/2/2008 1:32:28 PM   
Bughawk


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I think they call that trickle down economics.... They pee on us and tell us it is raining...

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pax vobiscum +

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Post #: 48
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 10/2/2008 3:42:24 PM   
Porktown


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quote:

ORIGINAL: eyesandgillz

The appearance that these securities had backing by the gov't made all those private entities gobble 'em up.  Sure, Fannie and Freddie didn't have them all, but they got out of them by selling a lot of them to the private firms who thought they looked so good and thought they had backing of the US gov't (ie. safe, even if they started tanking).  Granted, there is plenty of blame to go around but to try to blame oil prices on this is unrealistic, in my opinion.  It really is the perfect storm of events all happening at about same time that lead up to this.  The really disconcerting thing is, the writing was on the wall a couple years ago but to my knowledge, there was no real effort to do anything by Congress or the administration. 



Aren't these trained proffessional bankers?  Not sure if they had as much of "an appearance of backing of the government" as what the investors saw as it being easy money.

My comment about the oil is more for the common primary residence barrower, who was qualified, but after everything in the world went up in price, and his/her salary didn't or are now working 2-3 retail store jobs, are now facing foreclosure (could have been considered subprime barrower, could be standard rate).  These aren't just bad decision making people that are foreclosing.  Any product involving shipping - up, any product with petroleum in production - up, just about every industry charging a surcharge to compensate, getting to and home from work - up, heating your house - up, cooling your house - up, businesses and people not spending on other goods to compensate for oil related loses, companies cutting employees to keep up with bills, ect. ect.  

Oil is not behind the subprime (portion) of our crisis, but it is definitely part of our overall economic crisis.  GM, Chrysler, Toyota, ect. are not down in production due to Fannie and Freddy.  It is the overall economy.  Which the subprime is definitely showing they are a big part of, but not the only thing wrong. 

I totally agree, with the writing on the wall a few years ago for the housing bubble busting.  Not sure if the government just figured that letting things right themselves would be the best way?  I saw this 10 years ago, when I was living in the DC area.  Prices for rent almost doubled in only 2 years of being there.  I remember talking to people in the area about it.  They said that it wouldn't stop going up.  Many of them doing the two mortgage game.  Pretty stupid if you ask me, but their response was, who can really afford a $400k house.  That same house equals a $200k house around here on a 1/2 acre lot if lucky.  Guess they were wrong...

In 1996, the Congressional Budget Office wrote "there have been no federal appropriations for cash payments or guarantee subsidies. But in the place of federal funds the government provides considerable unpriced benefits to the enterprises... Government-sponsored enterprises are costly to the government and taxpayers... the benefit is currently worth $6.5 billion annually."[

(in reply to eyesandgillz)
Post #: 49
RE: UNBELIEVABLE!! - 10/2/2008 3:58:04 PM   
eyesandgillz


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Interesting article from Bill Fleckenstein that he wrote in May of '07. 

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/IgnoringTheLessonsOf1929.aspx

I know well about the DC area and its housing market.  My brother bought a house down in Sterling, VA in late '04 that if it were up here, would be lucky to fetch 100k to 120k in a decent PGH burb.  I think his combined mortgages were around 385k to start.  I think he did an 80/20 or 80/15/5 He went in with a 5 yr ARM.  He still has some time to refinance before he gets slammed but he already got denied as he was upside down on the loan with the tanking of property values down there.  His only hope is to ride it out and hope he can make the increased payments when they kick in or pay down the principle enough to be able to refinance in a year or so.  He is in a pickle, for sure.  Luckily he has a decent job and is doing well.

(in reply to Porktown)
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