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jon_e_si -> THE BAIL-OUT - Interesting reading! (9/28/2008 8:34:42 AM)

If Warren Buffet (et als) made a bad 5 Billion Dollar investment of his own money, it is not the taxpayers' responsibility to reimburse him! Unfortunately, the vultures are gathering in D.C. to determine how much of the $800+ Billion Dollar Bail-out, they can siphon off for their own use, "doing the peoples' work"!!!
The $1 Trillion Buzz KillBy Steve Christ | Thursday, September 18th, 2008

I don't know if you've noticed it, but Hank Paulson doesn't look so good lately. Neither, for that matter, does Ben Bernanke. I guess saving the world from "systemic financial collapse" is more stressful than it looks.  Together they have been working overtime as they struggle to keep it all afloat. After all, what lies in the balance is only the fate of the world.
But despite practically rewriting all of the rules and pumping massive amounts of liquidity into the broken system, the crisis has quickly transitioned into its endgame.
It's no longer about liquidity. Instead, it has devolved in a matter of solvency.
That's a far different world from where we started with this mess and one that can't be easily changed - no matter who is calling the shots.
So over the course of the last two weeks, "the system" has teetered on the edge of the abyss and the markets have fallen apart. Reality bites.
For the markets, that means that the game that has suddenly turned into the sum of all fears. And I can assure you that is no mere hyperbole. The work of Hank and Ben aside, the Wall Street meltdown is gathering steam.
The Financial Markets Lead the Meltdown

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That's the market reality that has turned this week into the worst one since 9/11, as fear takes it's seat in nearly every trade.
Not surprisingly, it is being led by the financials that got us into this mess in the first place. The sector is absolutely crashing and taking everything else down with it. And I do mean crashing.
After all, how else can you possibly explain it?
Lehman Bros. is no more.
Freddie and Fannie are penny stocks.
And the U.S. taxpayer has become an 80% partner in a Dow component with an $85 billion loan to AIG to keep it afloat.
Meanwhile, more shoes are lining up to drop as the ripple effects of what happened earlier in the week stretch across the pond.
But the one thing we do know is this: massive losses have been taken by investors in the financials.
That pressures the system in ways that the dot com bust never could have dreamed of.
In fact, here's a list of the losses in market capitalization for 25 of the biggest financials since their rough peaks in October 2007. Keep in mind that these companies are not exactly E-toys.
The losses include:


  • A I G -Then: $178.8 billion... Now: $5.46 billion. Down 96.95%
  • Bank of America -Then: $236.5 billion... Now: $123.4 billion. Down: 47.82%
    Citigroup -Then: $236.7 billion... Now: $76.34 billion. Down 67.75%
    Merrill Lynch - Then: $63.9 billion... Now: $30.2 billion. Down 52.74%
    Fannie Mae - Then: $64.8 billion... Now: $0.45 billion. Down 99.3%
  • Morgan Stanley - Then: $73.1 billion... Now: $41.1 billion. Down 43.78%
    Wachovia - Then: $98.3 billion... Now: $19.44 billion. Down 80.22%
  • JP Morgan Chase - Then: $161 billion... Now: $130.2 billion. Down 19.13%
    Capital One Financial - Then: $29.9 billion... Now: $16.9 billion. Down 43.48%
    Washington Mutual - Then: $31.1 billion... Now: $3.64 billion. Down 88.3%
  • Lehman Bros. - Then: $34.4 billion... Now: $0.80 billion. Down 97.6%
    Goldman Sachs - Then: 97.7 billion... Now: $40.6 billion. Down 58.7%
  • Wells Fargo - Then: $124.1 billion... Now: $111.25 billion. Down 10.35%
  • National City - Then: $16.4 billion... Now: $2.8 billion. Down 83%
    Fifth Third Bancorp - Then: $18.8 billion... Now: $7.9 billion. Down 57.6%
    American Express - Then: $74.8 billion... Now: $37.5 billion. Down 49.87%
  • Freddie Mac - Then: $41.5 billion... Now: $0.16 billion. Down 58.7%
  • Suntrust Banks - Then: $27 billion... Now: $16.07 billion. Down 58.7%
  • BB&T - Then: $23.2 billion... Now: $18.4 billion. Down 20.69%
    Marshall & Ilsley - Then: $11.6 billion... Now: $4.48 billion. Down 61.3%
    Keycorp - Then: $13.2 billion... Now: $5.68 billion. Down 56.97%
    Legg Mason— Then: $11.4 billion...Now: $4.96 billion. Down 56.49%
    Comerica— Then: $8.3 billion...Now: $4.74 billion. Down 42.89%
    Countrywide Financial: Then: $11.1 billion...Now: $0.00 billion. Down 100%
    Bear Stearns— Then: $14.8 billion...Now: $ 0.00 billion. Down 100% Now that is quite a list. And I'll save you the tedium of adding it all up.
    Together these 25 companies alone have lost investors a total of $992,690,000,000 over the last 12 months... or nearly 1 trillion dollars.
    And that's just based on their share prices as of yesterday. Today it's a bit worse.

    As for the news itself, it has been coming in fast and furious ever since Sunday night. And there's not much more I can add to it other than to say it's as fly-by-the-seat-of-your-pants as it gets.
    However, within them all there is a simple and common thread: The markets are coming unhinged.
    Where she stops, nobody knows - least of all Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson.
    Let's hope they get it right.
    The good news is it can't go on forever, and when it ends there will be plenty of bargains to be found. The bad news is we're just not there yet.
    Your bargain-hunting analyst,
    [image]http://images.angelpub.com/2008/10/234/steve-sig.JPG[/image]




  • Cold -> RE: THE BAIL-OUT - Interesting reading! (9/28/2008 11:55:36 AM)

    I still really dont understand much of this, other than that its bad, its because of terrible mismanagement, and those responsible are, in all likelihood, not going to be held responsible.  How will this affect the people with financial dealing with them?  If you've invested with them do you lose your investment?  If you take out a loan through them, is your outstanding balance nullified?  (Wishful thinking, I know, but seriously, what does happen?)




    jon_e_si -> RE: THE BAIL-OUT - Interesting reading! (9/28/2008 2:11:41 PM)

    Here's what some of these guys make:

    http://www.parade.com/hot-topics/what-people-earn/ceo-salaries?index=10

    If you and I get a loan, we're expected to pay it back. The "risk" factor is will we pay it back??

    Increasingly, they've made credit too easy and given loans to people who were marginal or less than marginal, coupled with the fact that they "kite-up" the value of the properties financed. When the bubble burst and values started down to more realistic values, the foreclosures increased faster than they were able to rid themselves of these now less valuable properties!

    If you and I can't afford our mortgage payment and default, we lose our equity and any chance of recouping what we've paid. They could care less, until the current situation where they have foreclosed on too many of these overinflated properties and now want Uncle Sugar to bail them out!

    No doubt they're going to throw a few dollars to the politicians (both sides) and get what they want!




    rapala11 -> RE: THE BAIL-OUT - Interesting reading! (9/28/2008 7:19:23 PM)

    jon, can you imagine what will happen when everyone with huge credit card balances are cut off or forced to repay at a more rapid pace?  as jobs continue to leave the shores of our country and people are not only payed less, but are paying more for groceries, gas, insurances and the like, i can only see this buyout/bail out as being a band aid for worsening financial wounds.   good post.




    spoonchucker -> RE: THE BAIL-OUT - Interesting reading! (9/28/2008 9:52:51 PM)

    jon,

    These are the same "POOR" folks that you have crying over, because they were over regulated, and over taxed. Don't you remember? They are our only true friends.




    jon_e_si -> RE: THE BAIL-OUT - Interesting reading! (9/29/2008 6:12:11 AM)

    These guys say it better than me - the 3 blogs are interesting too!


    The Fascist Coup Is Nearly CompleteBy Greg McCoach | Sunday, September 28th, 2008

    The fascist coup in the United States is nearly complete.

    Over the past few years the U.S. government has abolished countless freedoms of the American people... all in the name of "national security."

    They've spent trillions of tax dollars - forced upon citizens under penalty of imprisonment - on an imperialistic military to fight an un-winnable war on terror, while all but neglecting our growing domestic problems.

    The government and CONgress protects big business to create a symbiotic business/government relationship giving supreme power to the corporate elite.

    And to top it all off, they've controlled mass media (notwithstanding the internet) to put a lid on the truth.

    But don't worry. They're looking out for your best interests.

    One Small Step for Elitists, One Giant Leap for Fascism

    Unless you've been living under a rock for the past few weeks, you've heard the U.S. government has now nationalized the entire mortgage industry with the acquisition of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. And now, it hopes to siphon $700 billion from American taxpayers to buy up the bad debt of financial institutions for the next two years.

    Now, take a second or two... and think about how much $700 billion really is. It's seven hundred thousand million dollars! $700,000,000,000.00

    Another perspective: It's enough to give every man, woman, and child in the city of Philadelphia a half-million dollars.

    Listen... that $700 billion figure represents about 5.2% of the entire U.S. gross domestic product in 2007.

    If approved, the bailout would raise the statutory limit on the national debt 6.6%... from $10.6 trillion to $11.3 trillion.

    And what will U.S. taxpayers like you and I get in return?

    Nothing. Zip. Zilch. Nada.

    • There are no plans for new regulations or oversights to help avoid this kind of crisis in the future.
    • There'll be no public interest givebacks to help the people whose homes are in the hands of the banks.
    • And, perhaps most shockingly of all, we will get absolutely no share in the profits if these fallen-from-grace financial giants bounce back... even though we are now assuming a great deal of the risk.

    This is worse than a bad deal for us. In fact, it isn't even a deal!

    The new rescue plan may restore a bit of investor confidence to battered financial markets. But investors will again begin to focus on the twin budget and current-account deficits and negative real U.S. interest rates. And eventually the government's plan will derail the dollar's three-month rally, which is, in effect...

    The One Last Hurrah for the U.S. Dollar

    The greenback has already started to retract. The U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six foreign currencies, has pullback as much as 5.6% in the past two weeks.

    Gold prices have certainly enjoyed the descending dollar. Gold has recently broken several daily movement records, including a $90.40, 11.6% one-day increase the other day. As a result, gold and gold mining stocks are starting to come back to life.

    In fact, numerous stocks in the Mining Speculator portfolio have made big moves... and show no signs of slowing down. Take a look...

    One stock in the MS portfolio has increased 75%... in just 7 days:
    [image]http://images.angelpub.com/2008/39/1261/20080925_mscahrt1png.png[/image] Another of our mining plays soared 134% in only 6 days:
    [image]http://images.angelpub.com/2008/39/1262/20080925_mschart2png.png[/image] Two other Mining Speculator stocks jumped a whopping 80% and 57% in just 3 days.

    It's just the beginning of a massive upward movement we'll see in the coming weeks and months.

    Mind you, while gold prices have rebounded strongly, many gold stocks have yet to follow suit... most likely due to false hopes the U.S. dollar will be able to survive.

    What does it all mean?

    It's simple. There's simply never been a better time to be vested in gold stocks. The sub-prime meltdown, the housing market crash, and the coming catastrophic decline of the greenback have enabled this tremendous profit opportunity.

    Fortunately, there's an easy way to get your share of these most-certain profits...

    The Mining Speculator Portfolio: An Average Gain of 212% Over 5 Straight Years


    And it's about to get even better...

    We're on the verge of a breakout run in junior gold and mining stocks. And it's not uncommon for junior mining companies to experience huge gains (tenfold or more) very quickly as news of a discovery leaks out.

    On top of that, the evolving bull market in precious metals not only focuses more attention on the sector, but also causes even more money to be spent on exploration. And the payback for a new find increases exponentially.

    There's simply no stopping gold from doubling up and hitting $2,000 an ounce. Dollar destruction will ensure the yellow metal's meteoric run.

    Now I've been preaching gold's profit potential for much of the last decade. And, truth be told, few people paid much attention when I first began making investment recommendations in the mining sector.

    Still, those who did listen have made extraordinary returns. They bought when the news concerning the mining sector was negative. Even now, few are paying any attention to the mining sector and are still being lured by the Wall Street hype and disinformation to invest in blue chips and the general stock market.

    Worse, many investors are being lured by a sudden glut of gold "experts" claiming inside knowledge of gold, silver and the broader precious metals markets.

    Don't believe 'em. The true experts - the ones who can deliver gains most people can only dream about - can be counted on less than two hands. I should know - I'm one of them.

    That's why now, more than ever, I'm recommending every investor have some exposure in junior mineral stocks.

    And there's an easy way to do just that... for as little as $25.

    To get immediate inside access to the junior mining companies poised for major run-ups - the ones I've visited firsthand and carefully selected after exhaustive research and quality controls - simply take a trial of my Mining Speculator advisory. This $25 investment could make you a fortune within the next few months.

    Simply click here to get started.


    Good investing,

    Greg McCoach
    Investment Director, Mining Speculator
    Editor, Gold WorldMarket Indices





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    Economic Releases for the week of Monday, September 29th, 2008:

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    From the Archives...How To Make Money in Good Times and Bad
    2008-09-25 - Brian Hicks

    Government-Guaranteed Energy Profits
    2008-09-24 - Nick Hodge

    How To Maximize Gains by 'Going Greek'
    2008-09-23 - Ian Cooper

    Foreign-based Banks Get Bailed Out Too
    2008-09-22 - Sam Hopkins

    You're on the Hook for this Bailout...
    2008-09-20 - Ian Cooper




    Wealth Daily Blogs




    jon_e_si -> RE: THE BAIL-OUT - Interesting reading! (9/29/2008 6:27:52 AM)

    Re: Regulation (Bear in mind I'm a Democrat disgusted with the "left" wing of the party!)

    <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_orkXxp0bhEA/SNhCOeHShaI/AAAAAAAAJSM/gjES5Al1nro/s1600-h/080922-fannie-1.jpg> Five years ago, Republicans proposed "the most significant regulatory overhaul in the housing finance industry [in a decade]." (Source: New York Times <http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E06E3D6123BF932A2575AC0A9659C8B63&amp;sec=&amp;spon=&amp;pagewanted=print> )

    <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_orkXxp0bhEA/SNhCOdgegsI/AAAAAAAAJSU/N-1a8fTymGE/s1600-h/080922-fannie-2.jpg> Democrats on the House Financial Services Committee blocked efforts at fixing Fannie and Freddie. Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) said, "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac... are not facing any kind of financial crisis,"

    <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_orkXxp0bhEA/SNhCOrf-ArI/AAAAAAAAJSc/AOWqjvlUoEk/s1600-h/080922-fannie-3.jpg> At least 18 timessince 2001 <http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/09/20080919-15.html>  Democrats blocked efforts at overhauling Fannie and Freddie even as accounting scandals and executive ripoffs became public.

    <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_orkXxp0bhEA/SNhCOj5ysxI/AAAAAAAAJSk/0D9HF7kyPCU/s1600-h/080922-fannie-4.jpg> Why? For starters, the top two recipients of Fannie and Freddie campaign donations were Democrat fatcats Chris Dodd ($165K) and Barack Obama ($126K) (Source: Open Secrets <http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/09/update-fannie-mae-and-freddie.html> )

    <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_orkXxp0bhEA/SNhCOwn4FRI/AAAAAAAAJSs/QME3pbrduE0/s1600-h/080922-fannie-5.jpg> And Fannie Mae paid well. Clinton-era Democrats, serving as the CEO, CFO and Vice Chairman, paid themselves $200 million in only six years even while a $10 billion accounting scandal was exposed. (Source: Wall Street Journal <http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121314375651462773.html?mod=opinion_main_review_and_outlooks> )

    <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_orkXxp0bhEA/SNhCEG1kFlI/AAAAAAAAJR0/NnnyJwRFEMo/s1600-h/080922-fannie-6.jpg> And Democrats like Chris Dodd also got favorable loans under a "VIP program." Dodd alone saved over $75,000 on his mortgage payments. (Source: Conde Nast Portfolio <http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/top-5/2008/06/12/Countrywide-Loan-Scandal> )

    <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_orkXxp0bhEA/SNhCEW_RumI/AAAAAAAAJR8/inICuK500DY/s1600-h/080922-fannie-7.jpg> So where are former Fannie Mae CEOs like Franklin Raines ($90 million in salary) and Jim Johnson ($21 million in salary in one year)? As you might expect, they're serving as Barack Obama's key economic advisers. (Source: Washington Post <http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2008/09/peculiar-case-of-aps-missing-paragraphs.html> )

    <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_orkXxp0bhEA/SNhCEbSWEJI/AAAAAAAAJSE/Qg-AdHJmiUA/s1600-h/080922-fannie-8.jpg> Hiring Fannie Mae's two former CEOs as economic advisers? Barack Obama: not ready to lead.

    NOTE THE DATES ON THESE ARTICLES:

     

    [size=5 family="sansserif" ptsize="18" back="#ffffff"]
    Guess again who's to blame for
    U.S. mortgage meltdown

    [color=black family="sansserif" ptsize="12" back="#ffffff"]Analysts point not to greed,
    but to social activist politics

    [size=1 family="sansserif" ptsize="8" back="#ffffff"]Posted: September 19, 2008
    By Drew Zahn
    © 2008 WorldNetDaily
    Stan J. Liebowitz
    [color=black family="sansserif" ptsize="12" back="#ffffff"]
    [color=black family="sansserif" ptsize="12" back="#ffffff"]While many pundits are pointing to corporate greed and a lack of government regulation as the cause for the American mortgage and financial crisis, some analysts are saying it wasn't too little government intervention that cased the mortgage meltdown, but too much, in the form of activists compelling the government to pressure Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae into unsound – though politically correct – lending practices.

    "Home mortgages have been a political piñata for many decades," writes Stan J. Liebowitz, economics professor at the University of Texas at Dallas, in a chapter of his forthcoming book, Housing America: Building out of a Crisis.

    Liebowitz puts forward an explanation that he admits is "not consistent with the nasty-subprime-lender hypothesis currently considered to be the cause of the mortgage meltdown."

    In a nutshell, Liebowitz contends that the federal government over the last 20 years pushed the mortgage industry so hard to get minority homeownership up, that it undermined the country's financial foundation to achieve its goal.

    "In an attempt to increase homeownership, particularly by minorities and the less affluent, an attack on underwriting standards was undertaken by virtually every branch of the government since the early 1990s," Liebowitz writes. "The decline in mortgage underwriting standards was universally praised as 'innovation' in mortgage lending by regulators, academic specialists, (government-sponsored enterprises) and housing activists."

    He continues, "Although a seemingly noble goal, the tool chosen to achieve this goal was one that endangered the entire mortgage enterprise."

    "As homeownership rates increased there was self-congratulation all around," Liebowitz writes. "The community of regulators, academic specialists, and housing activists all reveled in the increase in homeownership."

    An article in the Los Angeles Times from the late '90s praised the sudden surge in homeownership among minorities, calling it "one of the hidden success stories of the Clinton era."

    John Lott, a senior research scientist at the University of Maryland, however, claimed in a Fox News article yesterday that the success came at a great price.

    According to Lott, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston produced a manual in the early '90s that warned mortgage lenders to no longer deny urban and lower-income minority applicants on such "outdated" criteria as credit history, down payment or employment income.

    Furthermore, claims Lott, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac encouraged and praised lenders – like Countrywide and Bear Stearns – for adopting the slackened policies toward minority applicants.

    "Given these lending practices mandated by the Fed and encouraged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," writes Lott, "the resulting financial problems for financial institutions such as Countrywide and Bear Stearns are not too surprising."

    Liebowitz' contention that lenders were under pressure to loosen their standards for racial and political goals was confirmed years ago by the companies at the heart of today's crisis: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

    A New York Times article from Sept. 1999 states that Fannie Mae had been under increasing pressure from the Clinton administration to expand mortgage loans among low- and moderate-income people and that the corporation loosened its lending requirements to comply.

    An ominous paragraph of the article reads, "In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980s."

    Liebowitz likewise predicted in a 1998 paper the risk of sacrificing sound financial policy for social activism.

    "After the warm fuzzy glow of 'flexible underwriting standards' has worn off," Liebowitz wrote, "we may discover that they are nothing more than standards that led to bad loans. … It will be ironic and unfortunate if minority applicants wind up paying a very heavy price for a misguided policy based on a badly mangled idea."

    And though some have speculated that lenders in the '90s dove into sub-prime mortgages in an effort to gouge new markets, the president and chief operating officer of Freddie Mac in 1999, David Glenn, confessed his company was pushed by a federal agenda.

    "The mortgage industry intends to pursue minorities with greater intensity as federal regulators turn up the heat to increase home ownership," Glenn said in his remarks at the annual convention of the Mortgage Banker Association of America.

    "The federal government in the meantime has increased pressure on lenders to seek out minorities, as well as low-income groups and borrowers with poor credit histories," Glenn said. "Fannie Mae recently reached an agreement with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development to commit half its business to low- and moderate-income borrowers. That means half the mortgages bought by Fannie Mae would be from those income brackets."

    In that same year, Freddie Mac warned of the logical pitfalls of pursuing loans on the basis of skin color and not credit history.

    The Washington Post reported that the company conducted a study in which it was found that far more black people have bad credit than white people, even when both have the same incomes. In fact, the study showed a higher percentage of African Americans with incomes of $65,000 to $75,000 had bad credit than white Americans with incomes of below $25,000.

    Such data demonstrated that when federal regulators demanded parity between racial groups in lending, the only way to achieve a quota would be to begin making intentionally bad lending decisions.

    The study, however, came under brutal attack in the U.S. Congress and was ridiculed with charges of racism.

    A few years later, when Greg Mankiw, chairman of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, voiced a warning about weakened underwriting standards, Congress rebuffed him as well.

    The Wall Street Journal quoted Congressman Barney Frank, D-Mass., in 2003 as criticizing Greg Mankiw "because he is worried about the tiny little matter of safety and soundness rather than 'concern about housing.'"

    Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, rejected a Bush administration and Congressional Republican plan for regulating the mortgage industry in 2003, saying, "These two entities – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – are not facing any kind of financial crisis." According to a New York Times article, Frank added, "The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing!"


    Barney Frank & Cris Dodd - 2 of the biggest "Cheerleaders"!!




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