Kip Adams on ARs

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deerfly
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2010/05/05 17:50:17 (permalink)

Kip Adams on ARs

Here is what Kip Adams of QDMA had to say about antler restrictions.
from Kip Adams wrote 5 days 7 hours ago
In response to ENO's questions about (1) antler restrictions leading to poor genetics, (2) antlerless bucks in earn-a-buck hunts, and (3)system for aging bucks.
(1) there is often discussion about "high grading" the best bucks in antler restriction programs. The last national survey was completed in 2008, and at that time 22 state agencies used some form of antler restrictions (see page 50 of QDMA's 2010 Whitetail Report at http://www.QDMA.com for a complete discussion of buck management options) to protect young bucks. At the state level, all states (with the possible exception of Texas) that employed antler restrictions did so to protect yearling bucks while making 2.5 and older bucks available for harvest. A properly-designed antler restriction will protect the majority of yearling bucks so it reduces the opportunity for "high grading". Also, there is abundant research that suggests a yearling buck's first set of antlers is not a good predictor of his antler growth potential. Bucks that start small (and are easily protected by an anter restriction) can blossom into some of the biggest bucks in the herd.

muskiemaster asked if shooting the big bucks left the small ones to breed. We used to think that a few dominant bucks did the majority of breeding (like with elk and Alaskan moose). DNA analysis now allows researchers to identify paternity in deer herds and the results are a bit surprising. Dominant bucks do not dominate the breeding in deer herds. Rather, a little of the breeding is done by a lot of different bucks. The vast majority of bucks sire very few fawns (1-3) each year that survive to 6 months of age! One study conducted in a deer herd where over 50% of the bucks were 4.5 years and older showed yearlings and 2.5 year-old-bucks still sired about a third of the fawns. The rut is pretty short and whitetails are solitary breeders so it's nature's way to ensure the does are bred and to keep a lot of genetic variation in the herd. Also, many hunting seasons occur after the rut when the majority of breeding has already taken place.


Since PAs ARs do not protect the majority of 1.5 buck it is likely that we our high grading our 1.5 buck. Also,since yearling buck will still do a significant percentage of the breeding, the basic premise for implementing ARs in PA was flawed and does not reflect scientific deer management.
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    DanesDad
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/05 22:47:46 (permalink)
    How do you figure that "PAs ARs do not protect the majority of 1.5 buck"?
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    S-10
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/06 04:58:56 (permalink)
    AR's by themself protect approx 30% of the yearling bucks. None of AR's proponents will say with certanity that AR's won't lead to long term reduction of antler mass. They are all very cautious of not stating that. It is not possible to have any other outcome, it's just a matter of how long it takes and how severe the reduction.
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    deerfly
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/06 06:55:13 (permalink)
    S-10 is correct in that ARs only save 30% more 1.5 buck than would be carried over without ARs, but in any case we only carry over 50% of the 1.5 bucks and that does not constitute the ,"majority" needed to prevent high grading. Miss. carries over around 72% of their 1.5 bucks ,but high grading was still a problem. In addition.our ARs protect around 18-20% of our 2.5+ buck and these inferior ,but dominant 2.5+ buck ,are the bucks that are likely to do the most breeding in their lifetime.
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    SilverKype
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/06 07:41:58 (permalink)

    ORIGINAL: S-10

    AR's by themself protect approx 30% of the yearling bucks. None of AR's proponents will say with certanity that AR's won't lead to long term reduction of antler mass. They are all very cautious of not stating that. It is not possible to have any other outcome, it's just a matter of how long it takes and how severe the reduction.


    AR "protects" 50% you ol' fart. It "saves" 30%.

    My reports and advice are for everyone to enjoy, not just the paying customers.
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    deerfly
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/06 07:59:27 (permalink)
    AR "protects" 50% you ol' fart. It "saves" 30%.


    Well let's see if you can prove that. The PGC claims they don't know how many deer we have ,so how could they possibly know how many 1.5 buck were saved by ARs. They can't depend on the ratio of 1.5 buck to 2.5+ buck ,because they don't know what percentage of 2.5+ buck aren't AR legal. Alt said that ARs would double the number of 8 pts and that we would likely have more and larger buck than ever before and both claims were flat out lies, so why would anyone believe that ARs save 50% of the 1.5 buck?

    If you are so smart, why don't you tell us how many AR legal 1.5+ buck survive hunting season with ARs?
    #6
    S-10
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/06 10:50:37 (permalink)
    It is interesting that Alt originally said he was going to move 100,000 additional 1-1/2 bucks into the next age class which would lead to 50% or more being 2-1/2 or older. When the season was over the PGC said they actually saved nearly 40,000 which turned out to be 36,000. They still claimed they had 50% at 2-1/2 or over. Nice math if you can sell it.
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    SilverKype
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/06 11:26:29 (permalink)

    ORIGINAL: deerfly

    AR "protects" 50% you ol' fart. It "saves" 30%.


    Well let's see if you can prove that. The PGC claims they don't know how many deer we have ,so how could they possibly know how many 1.5 buck were saved by ARs. They can't depend on the ratio of 1.5 buck to 2.5+ buck ,because they don't know what percentage of 2.5+ buck aren't AR legal. Alt said that ARs would double the number of 8 pts and that we would likely have more and larger buck than ever before and both claims were flat out lies, so why would anyone believe that ARs save 50% of the 1.5 buck?

    If you are so smart, why don't you tell us how many AR legal 1.5+ buck survive hunting season with ARs?


    Did I strike a nerve ? LAUGH. You can ask the PGC about their data.

    My reports and advice are for everyone to enjoy, not just the paying customers.
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    MuskyMastr
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/06 11:57:08 (permalink)
    The original premise for AR was to shrink the standard deviation from the average date of conception. The theory was that the older bucks saved by AR would do the breeding and all the does would be bred closer together.

    Now we learn that the dominant bucks will still not do all the breeding. The data shows that the SD from the ADC has not changed. So what is the biological basis for AR?

    Additionally here in 1A we have a much higher percentage of 1.5 y/0 bucks that meet the 4 pt restriction and are taken out of the herd, more more so than in other areas of the state.

    Once again, what is the current scientific basis for AR?

    Better too far back, than too far forward.
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    deerfly
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/06 18:46:32 (permalink)
    Did I strike a nerve ? LAUGH. You can ask the PGC about their data


    No you didn't strike a nerve, you struck out. Instead of engaging in a rational discussion of the issue you resorted to insults and attempted to change the subject and that is a classical MB method used by those that can't support their positions with facts.

    MM is correct ,there is and never was any scientific basis for ARs. It was implemented solely to get hunters to shoot more doe and it worked like a charm.
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    dpms
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/06 20:28:49 (permalink)
    ORIGINAL: deerfly

     The PGC claims they don't know how many deer we have ,so how could they possibly know how many 1.5 buck were saved by ARs. . Alt said that ARs would double the number of 8 pts and that we would likely have more and larger buck than ever before and both claims were flat out lies, so why would anyone believe that ARs save 50% of the 1.5 buck?


     
    So, since you say that the PGC does not know how many deer we have how are you so sure the we don't have double the 8 points and larger buck than ever before?  A flat out lie as you say...
     
     
     
     

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    deerfly
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/06 20:35:52 (permalink)
    The PGC and WM both agree that the harvest estimates are reasonably accurate. Therefore,it is statically impossible to double the number of 8pt. bucks while reducing the harvest by 47%.
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    dpms
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/06 21:47:12 (permalink)
    ORIGINAL: deerfly

    The PGC and WM both agree that the harvest estimates are reasonably accurate. Therefore,it is statically impossible to double the number of 8pt. bucks while reducing the harvest by 47%.

     
    Show me the stats that prove that Alt's claims that we would double the number of 8 points in the herd and that our bucks would be larger are "flat out lies". 

    My rifle is a black rifle
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    Dr. Trout
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/06 22:22:01 (permalink)
    gene... you know they can't provide those stats....
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    deerfly
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/07 00:09:03 (permalink)

    ORIGINAL: dpms

    ORIGINAL: deerfly

    The PGC and WM both agree that the harvest estimates are reasonably accurate. Therefore,it is statically impossible to double the number of 8pt. bucks while reducing the harvest by 47%.


    Show me the stats that prove that Alt's claims that we would double the number of 8 points in the herd and that our bucks would be larger are "flat out lies". 


    In order for ARs to double the number of 8 pt. buck , the harvest of 2.5+ buck would have had to double. Before any bucks were saved by ARs ,our 2.5+ buck harvest was 52,900. The max. 2.5+ buck harvest since ARs were implemented was 62,800 in 2003,so it is blatantly obvious that ARs didn't come anywhere close to doubling the number of 8 pt. bucks.
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    SilverKype
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/07 08:13:26 (permalink)

    ORIGINAL: deerfly

    Did I strike a nerve ? LAUGH. You can ask the PGC about their data


    No you didn't strike a nerve, you struck out. Instead of engaging in a rational discussion of the issue you resorted to insults and attempted to change the subject and that is a classical MB method used by those that can't support their positions with facts.

    MM is correct ,there is and never was any scientific basis for ARs. It was implemented solely to get hunters to shoot more doe and it worked like a charm.


    Sure.. you can say I struck out. And it's intentionally. Do you know how many times AR has been discussed here ? How much discussion we've have about Kip Adams ? You realize right now it's the same 2 guys & 2 new ones yappin' about the same thing over and over ? The facts are quite clear with AR.. and there's no need for those who have discussed it over and over and over to revisit them.

    And to answer your original question, the point restriction differences (3 and 4) between areas were developed to move 50% of 1.5 year olds to the next age class. How does the PGC know this ? How did they differentiate what areas should be 3 or 4 pt to a side ?


    Old news deerfly. There are 20,000 members on this site and at this time of year, very few even visit the hunting forums. And those that continue to, are really just passing time because everything has been hashed over time and time again. I just like callin' s-10 an ol' fart. And seems to have struck a nerve with you.

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    S-10
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/07 08:22:19 (permalink)
    And I really don't mind him calling me that because he is just a youngin, still wet behind the ears, that wishes he had my experience but doesn't want the age that goes along with it. Heck, he still fishes with bobbers and has a hard time with math. He needs to spend more time listening to DarDys.
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    deerfly
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/07 08:25:24 (permalink)

    And to answer your original question, the point restriction differences (3 and 4) between areas were developed to move 50% of 1.5 year olds to the next age class. How does the PGC know this ? How did they differentiate what areas should be 3 or 4 pt to a side ?


    It is true that ARs were designed to move 50% of the 1.5's to the next age class but no one knows if it is achieving that goal. Just like they don't know if ARs have decreased the average rack size of 2.5+ bucks like it did in Miss. The PGC doesn't even care enough to do the research necessary to determine AR's effects on our herd while Miss. documented the decrease after just 5 years of ARs.

    BTW, if you are tired of discussing ARs why are you posting on this thread?
    #18
    SilverKype
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/07 08:26:52 (permalink)
    PFFT ! would be the correct term for that.

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    SilverKype
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/07 08:31:12 (permalink)

    ORIGINAL: deerfly


    And to answer your original question, the point restriction differences (3 and 4) between areas were developed to move 50% of 1.5 year olds to the next age class. How does the PGC know this ? How did they differentiate what areas should be 3 or 4 pt to a side ?


    It is true that ARs were designed to move 50% of the 1.5's to the next age class but no one knows if it is achieving that goal. Just like they don't know if ARs have decreased the average rack size of 2.5+ bucks like it did in Miss. The PGC doesn't even care enough to do the research necessary to determine AR's effects on our herd while Miss. documented the decrease after just 5 years of ARs.

    BTW, if you are tired of discussing ARs why are you posting on this thread?


    I already answered that question deerfly. I was picking on s-10 & you ended up getting your panties in a bunch.

    I've come to the conclusion that nearly all of what can be discussed about PA deer hunting, has been. It's the same old thing --- guys bring their own experiences to the table.. we look at data, and hash it out. It passes time and offers little meaningful value.

    My reports and advice are for everyone to enjoy, not just the paying customers.
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    DarDys
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/07 08:48:28 (permalink)
    ORIGINAL: S-10

    And I really don't mind him calling me that because he is just a youngin, still wet behind the ears, that wishes he had my experience but doesn't want the age that goes along with it. Heck, he still fishes with bobbers and has a hard time with math. He needs to spend more time listening to DarDys.

     
    I'm not so sure that encouraging anyone to listen to me would be considered sage advice.

    The poster formally known as Duncsdad

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    S-10
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/07 08:50:57 (permalink)
    I tend to disagree with Kype on the value of these discussions. It has been proven that at least some folks from the PGC, DCNR and fish/boat do watch boards like these to get the pulse of the public. One thing that has led to a slight change in course by the BOC is the unrentling displeasure from most citizens on their handling of the deer situation. There is even a PGC WCO working on at least a couple boards trying to promote their position just as Doc does here. This discussion doesn't mean near as much as an E-mail or call to a BOC member but it does have a bit of an impact. There is an upside to so few deer----I have yet to mess up a gobbler by bumping a deer while moving into calling position. It used to happen all the time.
    #22
    SilverKype
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/07 09:22:42 (permalink)

    ORIGINAL: S-10

    This discussion doesn't mean near as much as an E-mail or call to a BOC member but it does have a bit of an impact.


    We all know how few ever email or call, or testify at BOC meetings. If I want something noticed, I'm not relying on it happening here, or other forums, even with WCO's, or commissioners a member of. It goes straight to who I want it noticed by. Which proves my point. The large amount of time spend on forums beotching, doesn't compare to the little amount of time it takes to spend some personal time with a legislator or commissioner. Discussions on forums really never get anywhere far beyond the writers or readers brain.

    Just passin' time.

    My reports and advice are for everyone to enjoy, not just the paying customers.
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    eyesandgillz
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/07 10:15:13 (permalink)
    Just to state it again for the upteenth time, when PA started the ARs and as they now continue, the largest portion of PA bucks are shot after the main rut when most of the does have been bred and the genes have been passed on.  If, like in MS, we started our rifle season and majority of the harvest before and during the actual rut then yes, high grading may be of a concern.   But, it is not so don't worry yourselves with it.  Fight the HR if you think it does your area good but, not much bad can come from PA's AR (from a genetic standpoint). 
     
    Is there the occassional large 6 point or forkhorn that makes it through and he stays that way?  Yep.  Unless a JR. hunter gets him, he'll stay that way but, his genes will be diluted over time just like a large bucks gene's will be diluted over time since they both breed does and the does have 50% of the genes.  In a wild herd, harvesting after the rut, PA genetics won't be affected one way or the other by AR's.
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    deerfly
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/07 10:48:43 (permalink)
    High grading does not result from a change in the gene pool, but the long term effects of high grading are likely to result in a change in the gene pool. ARs are the exact opposite of natural selection and natural selection has been shown to produce changes in the gene pool in various species over time.

    The fact that Miss. harvests their buck before the rut had absolutely nothing to do with the problem of high grading. It simply resulted from harvesting best buck of each age class while letting inferior buck move on to the next age class.
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    DarDys
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/07 11:03:50 (permalink)
    ORIGINAL: SilverKype


    ORIGINAL: S-10

    This discussion doesn't mean near as much as an E-mail or call to a BOC member but it does have a bit of an impact.


    We all know how few ever email or call, or testify at BOC meetings. If I want something noticed, I'm not relying on it happening here, or other forums, even with WCO's, or commissioners a member of. It goes straight to who I want it noticed by. Which proves my point. The large amount of time spend on forums beotching, doesn't compare to the little amount of time it takes to spend some personal time with a legislator or commissioner. Discussions on forums really never get anywhere far beyond the writers or readers brain.

    Just passin' time.

     
    I don't have it on good authority that Gary Alt reads these boards and uses the discussions as the opening jokes for his Audubon Society speeches.
     
     

    The poster formally known as Duncsdad

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    dpms
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/07 14:43:00 (permalink)
    ORIGINAL: deerfly

     Just like they don't know if ARs have decreased the average rack size of 2.5+ bucks like it did in Miss.

     
    You claim that it is a flat out lie that the bucks are larger... Yet continually state we don't know how many deer we have or if AR's are high grading...
     
    And on the other point, if we don't know how many deer we have we cannot know if there are double the 8 points or not.  Harvest stats and herd stats are not interchangable.

    My rifle is a black rifle
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    dpms
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/07 14:45:46 (permalink)
    ORIGINAL: deerfly

    ARs are the exact opposite of natural selection and natural selection has been shown to produce changes in the gene pool in various species over time.


     
    Is hunting natural selection?  Maybe overharvest of yearling deer(in the past) is not in the best interest of the deer? 

    My rifle is a black rifle
    #28
    wayne c
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/07 15:01:25 (permalink)
    Dr trout says: "gene... you know they can't provide those stats.... "

    Deerfly says:
    In order for ARs to double the number of 8 pt. buck , the harvest of 2.5+ buck would have had to double. Before any bucks were saved by ARs ,our 2.5+ buck harvest was 52,900. The max. 2.5+ buck harvest since ARs were implemented was 62,800 in 2003,so it is blatantly obvious that ARs didn't come anywhere close to doubling the number of 8 pt. bucks

    Dr. trout....You shouldve known better than that! Thats all the proof needed. And remember, that 62,800 was the highest ever. And nowhere even on the same planet as double.
    Aside from that, all one need do is open there eyes...Around here you DONT see double the 8 points. In fact more like slightly less.... But not to the same extent as the many less doe, button buck etc. .
    post edited by wayne c - 2010/05/07 15:05:03
    #29
    DanesDad
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    RE: Kip Adams on ARs 2010/05/07 15:18:13 (permalink)
    "The original premise for AR was to shrink the standard deviation from the average date of conception. The theory was that the older bucks saved by AR would do the breeding and all the does would be bred closer together."

    I think this was accomplished with HR, not AR.

    #30
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