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Genieman predicts.... - 9/13/2008 8:47:10 AM   
genieman77

 

Posts: 1529
Status: offline 		I'm predicting an off year for numbers in Pa

Note; that's "thin" compared to average  "PA" numbers.

i know it's early in the season, but I've found it's been a good indicator of things to come by what's in the creeks now.

you heard here first!

now please, no whiny threads  that are sure to come  about the "lack of fish"  this year.
No whiny threads about meat hunters killing all the fish, yada yada yada.

Cause the truth is, even in an off year, there will still be more WAY more fish pr creek mile compared to everywhere else in the world...


..L.T.A.


Post #: 1
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/13/2008 9:14:12 AM   
Stillhead


Posts: 2763
Joined: 12/19/2003
Status: offline 		I definitely think we'll see less than last year, but last year was pretty crazy for numbers. Hopefully average size will be a little bigger this year. Should still be plenty. 

(in reply to genieman77)
Post #: 2
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/13/2008 9:37:08 AM   
beerman


Posts: 3657
Joined: 1/14/2002
From: Key West, Florida
Status: offline 		Hopefully, we will get enough contant precipitation throughout the fall so
the steelies will spread out....  thus, the fisherman will also.

_____________________________

changes in latitudes, changes in attitudes....nothing remains quite the same

The Beerman ~ Greg

(in reply to Stillhead)
Post #: 3
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/13/2008 8:38:19 PM   
coolerfull1

 

Posts: 193
Status: offline 		I don't know genie, last year was hard to determine if you ask me.  So darn warm and dry in October.  The fish were more on display last year because they were crowding the lower ends of the creeks for so long due to the lack of rain/low and clear water.  With some cool temps and rain, maybe they'll get spread out a little better.  Sure there were large numbers in the creeks all fall, but I was actually thinking this year was going to be better.  I remember the first good rainfall last year moved so many steelies up stream it was mindboggling.  I was fishing a spot on Elk were there wasn't one person within 100 yards of us either way and the steelies were stacked up like I never seen them before.  Too bad the water had got extremely low and clear again and they were like soldiers told not to bite, except a few.  Got real good in November though, seems to be the pattern.  We have a little way to go yet.

(in reply to genieman77)
Post #: 4
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/13/2008 9:19:48 PM   
CATMAN610

 

Posts: 277
Status: offline 		won't the steelhead be running up now after all this rain or is it too early?

(in reply to coolerfull1)
Post #: 5
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/13/2008 9:32:17 PM   
smallhook


Posts: 880
Joined: 9/15/2000
Status: offline 		Even with a ton of rain the fish still wouldn't make it much past route 5.  Too early, the temps aren't right.  Could you imaging fish running above 20 and then if the temps would climb to 90 in the next couple of weeks?  Wouldn't be to easy to get back to the lake and lots would probably die.  

(in reply to CATMAN610)
Post #: 6
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/13/2008 10:01:20 PM   
indsguiz


Posts: 2015
Joined: 3/24/2005
Status: offline 		I am predicting a smaller run this year except for October 11th when all steelhead will be biting everything thrown near them and will even jump out of the water to hit a dry fly.

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(in reply to smallhook)
Post #: 7
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/13/2008 10:43:31 PM   
genieman77

 

Posts: 1529
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: coolerfull1

I don't know genie, last year was hard to determine if you ask me.  So darn warm and dry in October.  The fish were more on display last year because they were crowding the lower ends of the creeks for so long due to the lack of rain/low and clear water.
 

We agree, C-1.
However, there were more fish last year at this time too.
There's not a great deal of difference from last Sept and this.
Creeks are low and the fish can't move up.
Last year, and in low conditions of past years, they still come, but just stack up in the very bottom end.



quote:

ORIGINAL: coolerfull1
With some cool temps and rain, maybe they'll get spread out a little better.   I remember the first good rainfall last year moved so many steelies up stream it was mindboggling.
 

We agree again. However it doesn't take cooler temps.
Just higher creek levels and they'll advance upstream and spread out
It happens like that every year




quote:

ORIGINAL: coolerfull1 I was fishing a spot on Elk were there wasn't one person within 100 yards of us either way and the steelies were stacked up like I never seen them before.


That's a beautiful thing, ain't it?
Most jamokes are too lazy or too concerned it won't be "worth it" to move away from the known hoards of fish they know about  to scout other parts.
Some times it's a dry hole, other times you strike gold...er..steel.
You should enjoy the fruits of your labor.
That's why some of us get bitter when a moon pie posts a report like

" caught baziilons of fish  at XYZ spot"

after that, there goes the neighborhood


quote:

ORIGINAL: coolerfull1We have a little way to go yet.


Tru-dat, Brother


..L.T.A.

(in reply to coolerfull1)
Post #: 8
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/13/2008 11:13:35 PM   
genieman77

 

Posts: 1529
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: smallhook

Even with a ton of rain the fish still wouldn't make it much past route 5.  Too early, the temps aren't right.  Could you imaging fish running above 20 and then if the temps would climb to 90 in the next couple of weeks?  Wouldn't be to easy to get back to the lake and lots would probably die.  


couldn't disagree more, SH.

That just hasn't been my personal experience over the years.
I've caught tons past rt 20 while wearing tee shirts and  swatting mosquitoes, that's how unseasonably warm it stayed.
I've found  fish all the way up to McKean  by the second week of Sept in years past.
I've drifted my junk past HUNDREDS and HUNDREDS of steelies stacked up in 72 degree water at the Elk access.
Those steelies didn't go back out, (and they weren't trapped)  matter of fact, MORE kept coming and stacking tighter.

That was the warmest, driest Oct I can recall in 20 years of chasin' steel.
They couldn't get past rt 5 due to ultra low conditions

My point is, all it takes is high water levels and fish will move up regardless of temps.

These fish are not coming in because of comfort or food.
Their internal  "bio clock" says it's time to come in.
temps or low water won't stop them from coming in at Elk and Walnut.
(or the other creeks "IF" the mouth isn't choked off)
It only stops their advance upstream.


'least that's been observations over the years


..L.T.A.

(in reply to smallhook)
Post #: 9
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/13/2008 11:28:58 PM   
Stillhead


Posts: 2763
Joined: 12/19/2003
Status: offline 		Actually, at this time last year, there wasn't that many more fish in the lower stretches yet. (I'm going by last wednesday, that  was the last time I was out). 

I think there will be less fish this year because there seemed to be a much smaller number of jacks in the 15 to 18" range last year.  I don't know if that's a great indicator or not, because only a small percentage come in that small. But I know following years after we have tons of jacks, are always pretty crazy, like last year. And yes, last year was above average for numbers, it wasn't just them stacking up in the low water early on. Even after they spread out the length of elk, it was still solid fish the entire way up and down the creek. That's nothing new, but it was even more so last year.


< Message edited by Stillhead -- 9/13/2008 11:29:35 PM >

(in reply to genieman77)
Post #: 10
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/13/2008 11:33:35 PM   
powerun

 

Posts: 329
Joined: 9/13/2005
Status: online 		genieman77; the #'s of fish this year are lower than last year's at this time . just like i told you the other day on the phone . but i just feel when the #'s want to come in , they will be here. but i agree it look's like i will be a slower year. but lower #'s of fish is just more of a challenge to us angler's. and could be more of a rewarding season. just think of it this way you all will get to try every fly in your box & tie some new pattern. even the uglyest fly in your box may see the water this year lol.

good luck to all this season.

dave.

< Message edited by powerun -- 9/13/2008 11:44:00 PM >

(in reply to genieman77)
Post #: 11
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/13/2008 11:43:38 PM   
Stillhead


Posts: 2763
Joined: 12/19/2003
Status: offline 		I disagree, it was another few days to a week yet before we saw groups of 50 plus fish coming in last year.


I also disagree to a point about water temp. not effecting them. Not so much the creek temps.  But the onshore lake temps. yes some will come through the hot water, but 68 degrees and lower onshore lake temp. is a good thing.

On the other hand,I've seen small groups of them hang in 75 degree water along the wall of nuts and not head for the lake until they were spooked out, some still didn't leave. They didn't bite well then, and when they did they died, but they didn't head for the lake.

(in reply to powerun)
Post #: 12
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 8:14:22 AM   
fisherofmen376

 

Posts: 468
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: offline 		sounds to me from the responses on this and other threads that the following are true:

Steelhead will come in at almost any time, other than maybe june or july. 
Steelhead by and large prefer cooler temps, better flow and "run" when it rains a lot, but some defy that logic and will come into the stream and stay there, even with warmer temps, less flow and minimal rain. 
Steelhead will bite just about anything. 
There may be less numbers this year.
There may be more numbers this year. 
In conclusion, ANYTHING GOES!!!!! 

Not trying to say all of your predictions are wrong, heck most of you have been fishing longer than Ive been alive. 
Just saying that there's probably a prediction for almost any circumstance out there.  I remember reading one post, I think from Genie, that said he stopped journaling after awhile because there didn't seem to be a ton of rhyme or reason with these fish. 

_____________________________

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Matthew 4:19

(in reply to Stillhead)
Post #: 13
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 9:21:45 AM   
Stillhead


Posts: 2763
Joined: 12/19/2003
Status: offline 		that's pretty much it.   The majority of them are fairly predictable, but with so many, there is always a small percentage that seem to do their own thing. Not much different than people I guess.   Part of that has to do with the long time frame that our fish spawn. Some will start in later October, and there will be a few in spawn mode all fall/winter/spring long. I think cooler wetter conditions bring in more of the fish that aren't going to spawn until late winter/spring.  Warmer dryer conditions and the fish that spawn early come, but less of those later spawners.

(in reply to fisherofmen376)
Post #: 14
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 10:08:22 AM   
Storm Warning 2

 

Posts: 666
Joined: 9/23/2005
Status: offline 		I think you will see a larger average size of Steelhead this year.  Spring fishing revealed a good population of 6#+ Steelies that should make up a large part of the fall returns.  Typically they are more along the lines of 4 to 5#.

(in reply to Stillhead)
Post #: 15
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 10:26:49 AM   
fishmonger

 

Posts: 129
Joined: 10/10/2005
Status: offline 		I predict lots of fish to go around and less pressure on the tribs. An ideal situation, in my opinion. Later in the season, the fish should be spread from the lake to way upstream. Fish will be caught through April. Fish will be large and fiesty. I will go through a bunch of flies. It's deja vu all over again!

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Fishmonger

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Post #: 16
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 11:26:05 AM   
genieman77

 

Posts: 1529
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: fisherofmen376

sounds to me from the responses on this and other threads that the following are true:

Steelhead will come in at almost any time, other than maybe june or july. 
Steelhead by and large prefer cooler temps, better flow and "run" when it rains a lot, but some defy that logic and will come into the stream and stay there, even with warmer temps, less flow and minimal rain. 
Steelhead will bite just about anything. 
There may be less numbers this year.
There may be more numbers this year. 
In conclusion, ANYTHING GOES!!!!! 



LOL, yea sorta

quote:

ORIGINAL: fisherofmen376
I remember reading one post, I think from Genie, that said he stopped journaling after awhile because there didn't seem to be a ton of rhyme or reason with these fish. 


that was in relation to weather patterns, 376
Steelies are generally predictable on many other things as Jiggy Jim Stillhead mentioned.
(BTW, Jiggy has a TON more knowledge of steel and time on the water than me)

sure as the sun comes up in the east, the first "few" steelies enter in late Aug/early Sept.
As sure as the sun comes up, when water levels are favorable, some steel will move up.
Predicting how far, how many  and how fast isn't a sure thing.


..L.T.A.

(in reply to fisherofmen376)
Post #: 17
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 12:12:52 PM   
Stillhead


Posts: 2763
Joined: 12/19/2003
Status: offline 		Genie,

just to make it clear, I wasn't disagreeing with your original post. I do think early numbers are and indicator of the overall run, and I do think we are missing a few early fish.  I was just slightly disagreeing with the thought that temperatures don't have anything to do with it.   For example, say there were 20 fish that decided to come into the wall of nuts this morning, they were coming, didn't care about the temps. They feel the urge to run the creek and spawn.  Now, if it were 55 degrees, cloudy, water temp. in the low 60's, I think those 20 that really had the urge to spawn, would have brought 20 more with them that just came along for the ride. Make sense?


(in reply to genieman77)
Post #: 18
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 12:21:11 PM   
Stillhead


Posts: 2763
Joined: 12/19/2003
Status: offline 		Also forgot,

Never have I seen what anyone would consider a "big run" of fish enter the creeks when the lake temps. were over 68 degrees.  Didn't matter whether or not  we had hurricane rains when the lake temps. were that warm. Not saying I haven't seen pods of a 100 fish here and there stack up in low warm water, but never a real run of fish.

(in reply to Stillhead)
Post #: 19
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 12:26:26 PM   
chrisrowboat

 

Posts: 3335
Joined: 7/4/2002
From: not here
Status: offline 		Need more cloudy days for the steel to run. Most days so far have been sunny with deep blue skies, with few if any clouds. Other years there have been more clouds in the skies, even when it is sunny.
Any one else remember? Probably not in your fishing journal.Chris

(in reply to Stillhead)
Post #: 20
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 12:53:56 PM   
ShutUpNFish


Posts: 1135
Joined: 3/16/2007
Status: offline 		The fish are starting to run as we speak boys...trust me

< Message edited by ShutUpNFish -- 9/14/2008 1:00:49 PM >

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"Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy."
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Post #: 21
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 1:00:02 PM   
Skip16503


Posts: 2246
Joined: 4/4/2001
From: Erie Pa
Status: online




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Mile Creek Custom Rods

(in reply to ShutUpNFish)
Post #: 22
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 1:11:55 PM   
genieman77

 

Posts: 1529
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Stillhead

Genie,

just to make it clear, I wasn't disagreeing with your original post.




don't be sucking up to me now, Junior

your days of me taking you to my secret Springtime sucker/carp holes are OVER!!!

OVER, I TELL YOU!!!





























..L.T.A.

(in reply to Stillhead)
Post #: 23
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 1:23:36 PM   
Stillhead


Posts: 2763
Joined: 12/19/2003
Status: offline 		darn, I guess all I have left then is the memories!!




(in reply to genieman77)
Post #: 24
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 1:33:26 PM   
genieman77

 

Posts: 1529
Status: offline 		smAl dUud


BTW, where is gUroo??
Hope he didn't get the boot

i know some duuds didn't like him, but he tickled the sheet out of me

..L.T.A.

(in reply to Stillhead)
Post #: 25
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 2:06:14 PM   
Stillhead


Posts: 2763
Joined: 12/19/2003
Status: offline 		I don't think he was banned, just MIA

(in reply to genieman77)
Post #: 26
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 2:17:03 PM   
tommybanzai

 

Posts: 287
Joined: 1/27/2006
Status: offline 		I see the  ichthyologists and biologist are showing up on the forums again?
It wouldn't be nearing SST 2008-09 without them

(in reply to Stillhead)
Post #: 27
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 2:30:08 PM   
genieman77

 

Posts: 1529
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: tommybanzai

I see the  ichthyologists and biologist are showing up on the forums again?




nah, just bored and feel like yakking


..L.T.A.

(in reply to tommybanzai)
Post #: 28
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 2:31:54 PM   
Stillhead


Posts: 2763
Joined: 12/19/2003
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: tommybanzai

I see the  ichthyologists and biologist are showing up on the forums again?
It wouldn't be nearing SST 2008-09 without them




I get all my info. from my marine proctologist

(in reply to tommybanzai)
Post #: 29
RE: Genieman predicts.... - 9/14/2008 4:54:29 PM   
tommybanzai

 

Posts: 287
Joined: 1/27/2006
Status: offline 		HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!! i LIKE THAT

(in reply to Stillhead)
Post #: 30
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